Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, November 11, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Colonel Barton 12.00 1 2-1
10 10 Go Cats 4.00 1.2 2-1
6 6 Redhill 30.00 1.3 2-1
2 2 Scotch No Rocks 20.00 2.6 5-1
14 14 Left Pocket Money 20.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Coal Boss 15.00 5.3 10-1
12 12 Texcoco 15.00 5.8 11-1
4 4 Dario 4.50 7.3 14-1
3 3 Winger 10.00 7.7 15-1
9 9 Valuable Cargo 20.00 9 17-1
8 8 Absolute Courage 1.40 10.1 19-1
13 13 Give Him Time 10.00 11.6 22-1
1 1 Bradford 12.00 11.6 22-1
5 5 Jul Quist 10.00 14 26-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Caumsett 8.00 1 2-1
2 2 Coexist 3.00 2.9 5-1
6 6 A Lot of Spunk 12.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Charge Account 2.50 4 8-1
4 4 Enchanted Nile 2.00 4.5 9-1
3 3 Shaniah 8.00 5.3 10-1
5 5 Docs Seven 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Cold as Hell 5.00 1 2-1
8 8 Swing Shift 15.00 2.1 4-1
7 7 Friar Laurence 6.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Derby Date 4.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Texas Red Hot 12.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Camp David 3.50 6.6 13-1
1 1 Howbeit 3.00 7.3 14-1
4 4 Flags Up 4.50 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Dream Supreme S.) – Dream Supreme S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Your So Sillea 5.00 1 2-1
3 3 Fire On Time 8.00 1.1 2-1
5 5 Wicked Halo 1.20 2.7 5-1
4 4 Little Prankster 1.80 3.5 7-1
6 6 Royal County 20.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Last Leaf 6.00 4.6 9-1
Wicked Halo 8 15-1
Wicked Halo 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
16 16 Gold Del Mar 20.00 1 2-1
2 2 Turf Rocket 15.00 1.2 2-1
7 7 Tammy Lynn 3.50 1.3 3-1
10 10 Shore War 5.00 4 8-1
15 15 How Soon Is Now 8.00 7.9 15-1
5 5 Serene Waters 15.00 8.3 16-1
1 1 Renfrew 12.00 8.6 16-1
12 12 Twirl Around 4.00 9.3 18-1
4 4 Two Sip Sally 4.50 9.5 18-1
11 11 Walk Street 20.00 10.9 21-1
14 14 Baraye 4.00 11.1 21-1
13 13 Speightful Miss 12.00 11.4 22-1
6 6 Sharper Gal 20.00 13.1 25-1
8 8 Hamble 15.00 14.7 28-1
3 3 Boyne Valley 20.00 15.4 29-1
9 9 Destiny Star 5.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Tapitboy 8.00 1 2-1
8 8 Stormin Love 8.00 6.1 12-1
4 4 Extra Halo 12.00 6.1 12-1
13 13 One Red Cent 8.00 6.2 12-1
14 14 Midnight Ambition 12.00 7.2 14-1
10 10 Latta 20.00 8 15-1
3 3 Googol Joke 4.00 8 15-1
12 12 Augustine Red 3.50 8.9 17-1
6 6 Jimmy the Hat 15.00 9.3 18-1
9 9 Cruisin and Boozin 15.00 11 21-1
2 2 Stinger Bee 6.00 12 23-1
7 7 Superhero 6.00 12.9 24-1
1 1 Faster 20.00 13.6 26-1
11 11 Birchton 12.00 14 26-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Fliparino 6.00 1 2-1
3 3 Underhill’s Tab 12.00 4 8-1
4 4 Where’s Randy 20.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Pensacola 5.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Zambezi 6.00 6.3 12-1
5 5 Easy Action 2.00 6.5 12-1
2 2 Tunisian Spring 1.60 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Save the Mischief 12.00 1 2-1
2 2 She’s Arodeoqueen 8.00 1.2 2-1
1 1 Queen Lexi 30.00 1.4 3-1
11 11 Calle Reina 5.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Cheyenne Moon 15.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Sistina Chapel 1.80 4.9 9-1
5 5 Extremely Gruntled 15.00 6.8 13-1
10 10 Plumeria 4.50 9.4 18-1
9 9 Montclair Road 10.00 9.4 18-1
3 3 Dash of Lemon 12.00 9.9 19-1
8 8 Amy Z 10.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Roman Centurian 20.00 1 2-1
8 8 Cooke Creek 5.00 3.1 6-1
10 10 Creative Minister 3.50 5.5 10-1
3 3 Escapologist 15.00 6.4 12-1
9 9 Commandperformance 4.50 6.5 12-1
7 7 Magic Tap 1.40 6.9 13-1
6 6 Mr. Big News 30.00 8.1 15-1
4 4 Uninvited Guest 20.00 8.4 16-1
1 1 Tiwanaku 12.00 9.5 18-1
2 2 Galt 15.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (River City S.) – River City S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 F Five 12.00 1 2-1
1 1 Cellist 5.00 1.8 3-1
9 9 Stitched 15.00 2.4 4-1
10 10 Injunction 15.00 3.3 6-1
12 12 Harlan Estate 15.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Kitodan 15.00 6.7 13-1
13 13 Accredit 20.00 7.3 14-1
11 11 Siege of Boston 4.50 8.8 17-1
14 14 Beatbox 20.00 9 17-1
6 6 Smokin’ T 6.00 9.1 17-1
8 8 Grand Sonata 6.00 9.5 18-1
15 15 Street Ready 15.00 10.3 19-1
3 3 Red Run 12.00 12.9 24-1
4 4 Rockemperor (IRE) 4.00 13 25-1
7 7 Dominican Pioneer 10.00 15 28-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Cararra 4.50 1 2-1
4 4 Charlottesapproval 12.00 1.5 3-1
8 8 Happy Talk 12.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 I’m a Mess 10.00 3.2 6-1
9 9 Genetics 3.50 4.3 8-1
5 5 America’s Vow 20.00 6.3 12-1
11 11 Her Best Friend 30.00 8.1 15-1
7 7 Class Act 8.00 10.2 19-1
1 1 Loveland 4.00 10.2 19-1
2 2 Enigmatic 5.00 10.7 20-1
3 3 Murphy’s Gift 10.00 11 21-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.