Delta Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, November 11, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Fancy Paynter 5.00 1 2-1
6 6 Overtaxed 3.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Special Operator 6.00 3 6-1
2 2 Cheatin Charlie 4.00 3.2 6-1
9 9 Charming Charlie 6.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Wedington 20.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 More Like It 15.00 5 9-1
4 4 Now Now Man 20.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Heartthrob Halo 6.00 5.6 11-1
10 10 Sweet Rachel 15.00 8.2 16-1
11 11 Mean Cruiser 10.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Ferocity 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Myfriendsawinner 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Serape 10.00 1.9 4-1
5 5 Track Smart 5.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Harriet’s Dream 12.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Dolly’s Guitar 6.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 For Real Alice 2.00 7 13-1
4 4 Debbies Passage 8.00 7.6 14-1
7 7 Summertime Bandit 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 One Line Ruler 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Take Her Away 3.50 1.3 2-1
1 1 Bellamysawesomeday 15.00 2 4-1
5 5 My Idea 10.00 3 6-1
7 7 Rebecca’s Dream 8.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 With a Song 8.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Ido Solemnly Swear 20.00 5.7 11-1
9 9 Southeaster 15.00 7.6 14-1
4 4 Fist City 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Cajun Berti 6.00 1 2-1
6 6 Lion Heart Legend 12.00 1.3 2-1
4 4 Wonder Run 4.50 1.9 4-1
3 3 Daahers Bully 1.80 2.4 4-1
7 7 Move It 12.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Donna’s Court 15.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Pray Ide Sing 12.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Farewell Time 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Kurt’s Choice 4.50 1 2-1
1 1 Janet’s Devil 10.00 1.2 2-1
3 3 Majestic Mandate 10.00 1.8 3-1
6 6 Oxxon 15.00 3 6-1
2 2 Moro Mafia 6.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Valiant Defender 3.50 5.4 10-1
8 8 Major Deal 20.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 Michael’s Bad Boy 20.00 6.1 12-1
9 9 Putthehammerdown 6.00 6.4 12-1
11 11 Big Brother 8.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Bella’s Gatsby 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Apriority Avenger 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Saint Daddy 20.00 2.1 4-1
7 7 Prince Perfecta 2.50 3 6-1
3 3 Big Tap Baby 4.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Beaudean 8.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 Baileys Bro 6.00 6 11-1
5 5 Native Star 5.00 6.6 12-1
2 2 Classic Warrior 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Bud Won 4.50 1 2-1
6 6 Napoleonic Code 3.50 3 6-1
7 7 Circle the Moon 2.50 3.4 6-1
4 4 Total Surprise 5.00 4.5 8-1
1 1 Itwasthisbig 6.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Lost Gold 8.00 6.7 13-1
2 2 Little Jony 15.00 6.8 13-1
3 3 Papiringo 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Sweet Temperament 4.50 1 2-1
3 3 Jumpin Judy 1.80 1.1 2-1
7 7 Izatiz 6.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 Sugar Shack Queen 8.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Spanish Delight 5.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Angel’s Melody 3.50 3.8 7-1
6 6 Broke Financing 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Shesthebiggame 20.00 1 2-1
3 3 E R’s Mireya 5.00 1.1 2-1
6 6 Chacha to Catalina 4.00 1.2 2-1
10 10 Flying I 8.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Talkabout 10.00 3 6-1
2 2 Dat Dares Right 6.00 3.1 6-1
9 9 She’sagamechanger 6.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Lil Party Crasher 15.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 She’s the Sheriff 20.00 6.1 12-1
12 12 Grace’s Vision 15.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Tensas Lu Lu 3.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Jennysbigbaby 6.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.