Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, November 12, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Overindulgence 4.50 1 2-1
6 6 Azura 2.50 2.6 5-1
5 5 East Shore 1.80 3.6 7-1
3 3 Lady Mercedes 8.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Midnight Tango 12.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Wits and Wagers 3.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Elite Forces 1.60 1 2-1
4 4 Eli’s Promise 6.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Lark’s Mischief 1.80 2.6 5-1
6 6 Major Blue 5.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Wake Surf 12.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Ruggs 6.00 3.7 7-1
Lark’s Mischief 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Lou Anna 8.00 1 2-1
9 9 Partake 6.00 1.9 4-1
8 8 Dancing Princess 4.00 2.9 6-1
4 4 Naughty Miss 5.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Choctaw Grace 5.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Prix 12.00 6.4 12-1
6 6 Bette Davis 6.00 6.5 12-1
3 3 Yaree D Tat 15.00 7.5 14-1
1 1 Mo’s Vino Mesa 4.50 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Flotation Station 3.50 1 2-1
3 3 Brody 20.00 5 10-1
1 1 Chun Money 8.00 6.4 12-1
10 10 Evan On Earth 4.50 7.1 13-1
8 8 Mystik Dan 2.00 8.4 16-1
5 5 National Eclipse 20.00 8.6 16-1
9 9 Henro 10.00 8.7 16-1
6 6 Joe Shiesty 15.00 9.1 17-1
4 4 Mighty Message 8.00 9.1 17-1
2 2 Grand Emperor 10.00 9.2 17-1
7 7 Eusebius 10.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Stir Crazy 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Lilac Girl 3.50 1.4 3-1
9 9 Music Street 3.00 1.9 4-1
7 7 Anatolian 6.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Queridinha Leca 20.00 7 13-1
2 2 Pretty Provocative 12.00 8 15-1
4 4 Creative Cairo 2.50 8.3 16-1
6 6 She’s Gone 5.00 8.8 17-1
1 1 Lady Arsinoe 8.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Newyearspresent 20.00 1 2-1
8 8 Battling Bubbles 8.00 2.1 4-1
10 10 Big Dig 3.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Proud Performer 30.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 She’s Magic 2.50 5.9 11-1
4 4 Mikita 4.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Amazon Barbie 20.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Lady Robo 15.00 7.3 14-1
2 2 Areuhavingfunyet 15.00 8.7 16-1
5 5 Evie’s Encore 3.50 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Django 8.00 1 2-1
3 3 Be You 1.60 2 4-1
5 5 Nyquist Frequency 10.00 3.1 6-1
9 9 Resilience 6.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Nullify 30.00 4 8-1
1 1 Nuevo Empire 15.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Nash 2.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 Crusading 15.00 5 9-1
2 2 Justifreak 10.00 6.4 12-1
Nash 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Rungius 1.60 1 2-1
4 4 Doctor Nash 5.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Stirdatpot 12.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Watasha 1.40 5.8 11-1
3 3 Liam the Brave 12.00 6 11-1
7 7 Seven Flat 10.00 6.4 12-1
5 5 Hoodlum 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
16 16 Outadore 4.00 1 2-1
7 7 Arrest Me Red 5.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Front Run the Fed 8.00 5.8 11-1
11 11 Mark of the Z 15.00 9.2 17-1
5 5 Mischievous Rogue 6.00 10 19-1
8 8 Bad Beat Brian 5.00 10.6 20-1
4 4 Heaven Street 4.50 11.1 21-1
1 1 Just Might 20.00 11.7 22-1
12 12 Coppola 12.00 12.4 23-1
13 13 Cloudy 12.00 12.5 24-1
2 2 Edge to Edge 20.00 13.2 25-1
15 15 Sosua Summer 12.00 13.7 26-1
9 9 Purple Dream 8.00 15.1 29-1
14 14 Zoombie 20.00 15.8 30-1
10 10 Let My People Go 6.00 15.8 30-1
3 3 Oceanic 12.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Warp Nine 4.00 1 2-1
7 7 Workislife 12.00 1.1 2-1
1 1 Rivetage 10.00 1.5 3-1
8 8 Collins 10.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 J Bird Time 12.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Chaperone 8.00 5.2 10-1
10 10 Rapoport 3.00 6.3 12-1
2 2 Kitty Hawk 12.00 7.5 14-1
9 9 Hope Joe’s Right 8.00 9.2 17-1
6 6 Masmak 3.50 10 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.