Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, November 15, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Bettering 8.00 1 2-1
2 2 Mi Oscuro Secreto 15.00 1.1 2-1
3 3 Family Factor 2.00 1.6 3-1
4 4 Dunphy 1.00 3 6-1
1 1 Neon Deion 5.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Point At You 10.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Everyotherwon 8.00 1 2-1
4 4 She Dazzle 3.50 3.2 6-1
2 2 Goshen 10.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Set the Pace 2.50 4.9 9-1
1 1 Quarterflash 2.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Will Virginia Dare 20.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 Sis Boom Bob 12.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Fairy Cakes (GB) 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Harold’s Cloud 4.00 1 2-1
2 2 Ghent 3.50 3.6 7-1
5 5 Enjoyment 8.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Kentucky Bourbon 4.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Golden Reign 12.00 6.4 12-1
3 3 Tropic Storm 2.50 6.8 13-1
6 6 Shotshell 5.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Fasta Lavista Baby 3.50 1 2-1
3 3 Gold Del Mar 6.00 1.1 2-1
5 5 Dancing Nancy 4.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 City Shack 12.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Wampus Kitten 3.00 6.2 12-1
8 8 The Big Banshee 12.00 6.5 12-1
4 4 Just an Opinion 4.00 6.8 13-1
7 7 Blenheim Baby 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Around the Sun 12.00 1 2-1
2 2 Empirical View 8.00 1.6 3-1
4 4 Herington Rocket 10.00 1.9 4-1
10 10 Mint Edition 20.00 4.4 8-1
12 12 Dance the Day Away 20.00 4.7 9-1
15 15 Condone 5.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 Our Dotsie 10.00 5.4 10-1
13 13 Storm Bay 15.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Free Look 1.80 6 11-1
6 6 The Club 15.00 7.9 15-1
9 9 Tituba 8.00 9.3 18-1
8 8 Best Performer 2.50 9.8 18-1
11 11 Star Fortress (IRE) 10.00 9.9 19-1
5 5 Sake (FR) 12.00 10.8 20-1
14 14 Alybaer 15.00 15 28-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Mailman Money 10.00 1 2-1
3 3 Icarus 8.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Allege 4.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Nautilus (BRZ) 15.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Keystone Field 2.00 6.1 12-1
1 1 Ethical Judgement 3.00 6.3 12-1
4 4 Search Engine 3.50 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Midway Miracle 15.00 1 2-1
4 4 Lord Grantham 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Hardy Choice 4.00 1.5 3-1
8 8 Vale 4.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 David’s Tuition 15.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Love Spell 2.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Got the Bob 15.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Bolt Above 8.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Fearless Soldier 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Ocean Pointe 6.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Wizard of Westwood 3.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Toofareastiswest 10.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Rarified Flair 10.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Really Good 5.00 5 10-1
8 8 Quadra Island 6.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Kigali 8.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Cajun Fool 10.00 1 2-1
5 5 Geno’s Myth 12.00 3 6-1
12 12 One Red Cent 10.00 4.5 8-1
10 10 Flying B B 15.00 5.3 10-1
11 11 Catalina Crush 3.50 5.6 11-1
3 3 Midcat 20.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Spin the Boulevard 6.00 6.1 11-1
2 2 Give Me Liberty 12.00 9.3 18-1
7 7 Palhaco 12.00 10.1 19-1
6 6 Stormy Mesa 5.00 11 21-1
8 8 Charleston 4.00 11.4 22-1
9 9 Timing Difference 8.00 12.6 24-1
14 14 Petingas Twin 12.00 13.1 25-1
1 1 Toolpusher 15.00 14 26-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.