Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, November 16, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 P H Factor 6.00 1 2-1
5 5 Tiger Moon 2.00 1.3 2-1
6 6 Indian Gulch 3.50 2.1 4-1
1 1 Secret Pocket 4.00 2.4 4-1
4 4 Best of Greeley 5.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Man On the Moon 4.50 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Fashion Rage 4.00 1 2-1
1 1 Altered Shot 2.00 1.1 2-1
5 5 Megan’s Clara 2.50 4 8-1
2 2 Dealing Justice 4.50 4.4 8-1
4 4 Backyard Money 8.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Need Some Money 6.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Ice Time 4.00 1 2-1
4 4 Alexander Helios 2.50 1.9 4-1
2 2 Tiz Wicked Strong 5.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Treble Clef 4.50 3.6 7-1
1 1 Ben Franklin 3.50 4.6 9-1
7 7 Bearings 6.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Game Keeper 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Luz Divina 3.00 1 2-1
14 14 Whimsically 2.50 3 6-1
2 2 Fundamentally 6.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Yes to Champagne 6.00 8.2 15-1
13 13 Stephanieswarrior 30.00 8.4 16-1
5 5 Neom Beach 2.50 9.4 18-1
9 9 Butterfly Queen 3.50 9.7 18-1
8 8 Adrasteia 12.00 10.2 19-1
6 6 Kiss Blue 10.00 11 21-1
1 1 Fantastical 8.00 11.2 21-1
7 7 Its Satisfactual 12.00 11.5 22-1
10 10 On the Nile 8.00 11.6 22-1
4 4 Voice From Above 15.00 12 23-1
12 12 Magic Gathering 20.00 14 26-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Hurry Hurry 1.80 1 2-1
5 5 What’s Up Doc 6.00 1.8 3-1
6 6 Inexorable 1.60 2.2 4-1
1 1 St. Elmo 5.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 Southern Crush 15.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Luna Vieja 5.00 4 8-1
Inexorable 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Crushed Ice 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Itsablingthing 4.00 1 2-1
1 1 Vicki Rose 3.50 2.4 4-1
3 3 Icicles 2.50 3.2 6-1
2 2 Market Profile 10.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Ladan 10.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 Dream On Stormy 12.00 7.8 15-1
6 6 Alwaysgototheparty 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Poblano 1.80 1 2-1
6 6 Pigalle 4.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 New Beat 6.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Tower Bridge 12.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Flashy Lass 3.50 5 10-1
2 2 Let’s Duet 12.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Dear Lady 15.00 7.7 15-1
3 3 Lexa 12.00 7.9 15-1
7 7 Her Ladyship 15.00 8 15-1
8 8 Queen of Missoula 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Granato 8.00 1 2-1
11 11 Tales of Home 5.00 4.5 9-1
7 7 Current Climate 3.50 5.1 10-1
3 3 American Starlet 4.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Lady Goldstart 2.50 5.6 11-1
4 4 High Class 4.00 6.6 13-1
2 2 Laura’s Charm 8.00 7 13-1
1 1 Cora Pearl 20.00 8.5 16-1
5 5 Trouble Making 20.00 9.4 18-1
9 9 Miner’s Queen 20.00 9.8 19-1
10 10 Frango Electrico 30.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Controlled Temper 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 Spiritual Lady 8.00 2.6 5-1
8 8 Sweet Mimi 3.00 6.9 13-1
7 7 Sister Ella 4.00 8.5 16-1
3 3 Contrabbanda 10.00 10 19-1
11 11 Sing a Little Song 15.00 10 19-1
13 13 You’re Forever 12.00 10 19-1
14 14 Tappin Into Genius 15.00 10.2 19-1
4 4 Mydixielanddelight 12.00 10.3 19-1
6 6 Windy Walk 20.00 10.9 21-1
9 9 Up the Creek 12.00 10.9 21-1
1 1 Classic Mystery 12.00 11 21-1
5 5 Iuka Miss 20.00 11.1 21-1
10 10 Marco Sunset 15.00 11.1 21-1
Up the Creek 16 30-1
Sweet Mimi 16 30-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.