Delta Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, November 16, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Early Dawn 4.50 1 2-1
9 9 Our Clover Gal 3.50 1.4 3-1
6 6 Lunch Lady 4.50 1.9 3-1
2 2 Piece of Me 5.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Grace’s Soldier 6.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Bridled Up 10.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 Apriority Girl 15.00 6 11-1
1 1 Roadside Girl 8.00 6.1 12-1
8 8 Thursday Morning 15.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 Brooke’s All In 20.00 9.1 17-1
11 11 Ketanji 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Xtrafrieswithat 2.00 1 2-1
7 7 Catalina Queen 4.50 1.4 3-1
1 1 Our Custom Darling 3.50 1.6 3-1
2 2 Sadie’s Ransom 8.00 2.4 5-1
3 3 Mardi Gras Alarm 5.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 Moody Rafaela 20.00 5.6 11-1
8 8 I’m All Mixed Up 20.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 A P Humor 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 That Is Awesome 2.50 1 2-1
11 11 Gypsy Jackpot 5.00 1.1 2-1
9 9 Fast Out 5.00 1.4 3-1
6 6 Lucky Bead Lady 8.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Sweet Revival 6.00 3 6-1
7 7 Cupie Cutie 15.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Wheels Like Nala 12.00 3.7 7-1
10 10 Reina’s Vision 10.00 5 9-1
2 2 Grace’s Vision 15.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Queen’s Soldier 20.00 5.6 11-1
12 12 Starship Nola 6.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Daisy de Oro 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Papa Jojo 1.60 1 2-1
4 4 El It 8.00 2 4-1
3 3 Perfect Edge 3.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Trabr’s Creed 4.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Mr Midway 4.50 5.7 11-1
6 6 Welcometoarkansas 10.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Big Bella Brown 8.00 1 2-1
1 1 Sermononthemount 2.50 1.4 3-1
2 2 Discreet Invasion 5.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Outlaw X. 20.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Louis Le Grande 3.50 4.8 9-1
7 7 Mamacallmeboo 12.00 5.4 10-1
10 10 Honor My Speed 10.00 5.6 11-1
8 8 Adieu Le Chat 6.00 5.9 11-1
9 9 Dealin’ Stelen 12.00 8.8 17-1
12 12 Temprano 12.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Smoky Topaz 6.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Lucky Louie 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Rhonda Ruth 6.00 1 2-1
4 4 Mariah 5.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Wicked Saint 8.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Valerie’s Chance 10.00 6.3 12-1
6 6 Millie’s Destiny 8.00 6.6 12-1
1 1 Miss Leona 1.40 6.6 12-1
7 7 Warm Fuzzies 4.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Cajun Gumbow 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Two Jet 5.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 That’s My Mama 6.00 4.3 8-1
9 9 Cute Dinero Queen 8.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Starship Jambalaya 4.50 5.9 11-1
4 4 Luminous Flight 15.00 6.2 12-1
3 3 Miss Target 8.00 6.5 12-1
10 10 Where’s Aunt J 12.00 7.7 15-1
8 8 Run Natalie Run 8.00 8.9 17-1
6 6 El Caliente Lady 15.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Hey Jackson 2.50 1 2-1
9 9 Noble Connection 6.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Shankinstine 15.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Ghost Cowboy 5.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Grosse Tete Ian 15.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 Treasure Coast 6.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 R T’s d’Oro 8.00 8.7 16-1
4 4 Chief Kimosabi 3.50 8.9 17-1
5 5 Prince Simba 15.00 9 17-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.