Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, November 17, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Wiki Lio 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Markswoman 2.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Long Black Veil 10.00 4.5 8-1
3 3 Mahomebred 3.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Zero Click 15.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Insightful Miss 3.50 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 April Clover 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Baytown Angel 4.50 2.2 4-1
5 5 Wisco Disco 4.00 2.4 4-1
4 4 Too Fast for You 3.00 4 8-1
1 1 Fessy 3.50 5.1 10-1
2 2 Lucky Lesson 8.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Nursekringledances 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Wild Acclaim 8.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Adiva 4.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 She’s So Malice 4.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Perceptive 3.50 5.3 10-1
7 7 Dont Cross Boudica 4.50 5.4 10-1
6 6 Cause Ima Rose 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Cathedral Beach 4.50 1 2-1
1 1 Senor Jobim 2.50 1.1 2-1
7 7 Populist 3.00 2.6 5-1
8 8 That Khenny 8.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Boise 5.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Improbable Story 10.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Commander Carl 8.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Monkey Zone 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Furious Anger 1.20 1 2-1
4 4 Dazzlemesilver 1.40 1 2-1
3 3 Accident 8.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Added Mischief 10.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Perfect Upstart 6.00 5 9-1
1 1 Naughtyson 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Noto 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Isa Lei 4.00 2.1 4-1
7 7 Miwoman 4.50 2.5 5-1
5 5 Queen Lexi 5.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Lindsey 10.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 She’s Splendid 6.00 3.6 7-1
9 9 Pray for Champagne 6.00 3.7 7-1
8 8 Queen’s Notice 8.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Bent Halo 20.00 4.6 9-1
Pray for Champagne 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 You Ain’t Poppn 4.00 1 2-1
2 2 Ghazaaly 3.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Dai Vernon 4.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Single Dot Yaht 3.50 5.5 10-1
3 3 Cant Be Doin That 10.00 6.6 12-1
5 5 Tejas 10.00 7.8 15-1
8 8 Mobster Gun 8.00 7.9 15-1
7 7 Redemption Time 8.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Outadore 1.20 1 2-1
7 7 Excess Magic 4.50 3 6-1
12 12 Artemus Citylimits 6.00 3.8 7-1
14 14 Ambivalent 12.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Just Say When 5.00 4 8-1
11 11 Voodoo Zip 8.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 Bohemian Bo 20.00 4.9 9-1
13 13 Field Day 5.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Go West 8.00 5.5 10-1
10 10 Willtorun 8.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Zoombie 6.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Vulcan 30.00 7.6 14-1
8 8 Of the Moment 30.00 9.4 18-1
5 5 Colosseo 20.00 9.4 18-1
Excess Magic 15 28-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Highland Falls 2.00 1 2-1
3 3 Smile Mon 5.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Redeemer 2.50 4.7 9-1
9 9 Ten Days Later 4.50 5 9-1
5 5 J J’s Joker 15.00 6.4 12-1
8 8 Just Battle 6.00 6.7 13-1
6 6 Baseline Beater 15.00 6.8 13-1
1 1 Bubba Can Dance 30.00 6.8 13-1
7 7 Emirates Road 30.00 9 17-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.