Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Friday, November 17, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Starburst 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 West Warpath 3.00 1.3 2-1
3 3 Herd Immunity 1.80 1.7 3-1
7 7 Special Breed 4.50 3.2 6-1
1 1 Gallant Star 15.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Homeview 20.00 5 9-1
5 5 Bibleman 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 When’s Tee Time 8.00 1 2-1
14 14 Sierra Hotel 12.00 1.1 2-1
1 1 Super Wise 6.00 1.6 3-1
3 3 Little G T 4.50 1.8 3-1
2 2 Mountain Pine 4.00 2.5 5-1
10 10 Chaosmos 12.00 3.8 7-1
12 12 Optimus Kat 12.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 Bakeneko 10.00 5.5 10-1
13 13 Easter Snap 12.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 Ioya Again 8.00 6.3 12-1
11 11 Monarchs Glen (GB) 10.00 7 13-1
7 7 Niles Channel 20.00 7.4 14-1
5 5 Pharaoh’s Prophecy 50.00 12.4 23-1
4 4 Thisguycanfly 50.00 13.5 26-1
15 15 Fast Break 3.50 SCRATCH
16 16 Moment 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Mary Jack 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 No Nannette No 8.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Lady Lana 8.00 5.6 11-1
9 9 My Alibi 12.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Honorary Guest 5.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 Moonlight Rain 4.50 6.5 12-1
5 5 Bows N Lace 6.00 6.9 13-1
10 10 Caviar Resolution 10.00 7.3 14-1
11 11 Morning Line News 12.00 7.4 14-1
2 2 J Z’s First 12.00 9.2 17-1
7 7 Averi Ever After 15.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Sounds Like Power 4.50 1 2-1
9 9 Jackson D 3.50 4.9 9-1
10 10 Ells 8.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 House Bourbon 6.00 6.2 12-1
11 11 Mister Banderas 10.00 6.6 13-1
12 12 Pass On Nothing 10.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Handsome Harold 8.00 6.7 13-1
3 3 Bobby Two Shot’s 10.00 7.9 15-1
6 6 Speightful One 15.00 8.3 16-1
5 5 A G’s Gem 15.00 8.4 16-1
8 8 Tdzshininluckystar 10.00 9.2 17-1
4 4 Deacon Jones 20.00 11.5 22-1
13 13 Skinny Bobby 8.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Puppeteer 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Cat County 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Sonofaship 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Bourbon Day 6.00 1 2-1
5 5 Wicked Rose 6.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Old Alliance 10.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Gametime Gladiator 4.50 2.8 5-1
1 1 Dapper Dude 6.00 2.9 5-1
8 8 El Perfecto 3.50 3.2 6-1
10 10 Warrior’s Run 15.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Ricky Bobby 4.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Rum ‘n Tonic 12.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Moreau 3.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Quaternion 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Doris Hebert Memorial S.) – Doris Hebert Memorial S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Free Like a Girl 1.80 1 2-1
3 3 Beleout 6.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 First I’ve Seen 8.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Free Drop Maddy 8.00 4.5 9-1
6 6 Wupkar 8.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Olivia G 10.00 6.7 13-1
9 9 Rue Lala 8.00 6.9 13-1
10 10 Royal O’Haigain 20.00 8.3 16-1
11 11 Wholelottamo 8.00 8.7 16-1
8 8 Miss Priority 20.00 10.5 20-1
4 4 Blessed Assurance 20.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Modern Sound 8.00 1 2-1
4 4 Tipsy Runner 5.00 2.9 5-1
10 10 Smiling Ellie 15.00 3 6-1
9 9 Hauntress 10.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Lady Chai 8.00 4.6 9-1
12 12 Joke Master 8.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 La Scaloneta 6.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Lola’s Light 20.00 5.8 11-1
11 11 Mia Marcela 4.00 6 11-1
1 1 Signing 12.00 7.4 14-1
7 7 Blue Vortex 12.00 7.6 14-1
8 8 Ragtime Lady 8.00 9.9 19-1
13 13 Sotona 8.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Berlaine 4.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Frost and Fire 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Greyhound Station 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (John Valene Memorial S.) – John Valene Memorial S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 A G’s Charlotte 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Fort Polk 6.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Box of Pictures 15.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Sabra Tuff 5.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Tensas Candy 20.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Louisiana Liberty 15.00 4.5 8-1
9 9 Vale Male 15.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Free Like a Girl 2.00 SCRATCH
7 7 For Harper 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Donovan L. Ferguson Memorial S.) – Donovan L. Ferguson Memorial S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Clearly a Test 12.00 1 2-1
13 13 Accommodate Eva 4.00 2.5 5-1
11 11 Emily’s Bullet 4.50 3.5 7-1
5 5 Diamond Deal 5.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Kentucky Cajun 12.00 8.1 15-1
3 3 Lightofmaine 10.00 8.6 16-1
8 8 Tommie G 8.00 8.9 17-1
7 7 Running Argument 12.00 8.9 17-1
12 12 Takeover Queen 12.00 10.1 19-1
9 9 Astrology Girl 20.00 10.8 20-1
2 2 Sarah’s Court 20.00 11.4 22-1
10 10 Saved by Grace 20.00 11.9 23-1
6 6 Good N Sassy 15.00 13.1 25-1
14 14 Jaydyn Cat 12.00 14 26-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.