Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, November 18, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Who’s Snow Trouble 2.00 1 2-1
5 5 Flashover 10.00 1.8 3-1
7 7 Tap Anchor 1.80 2.7 5-1
4 4 Mr Big Stuff 3.50 3 6-1
3 3 Pleasant Destiny 8.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Non Fungible 12.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Persuade 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Fireside Kitten 4.00 1 2-1
2 2 La Tourista 6.00 1.1 2-1
4 4 Keen Contender 4.00 1.5 3-1
6 6 Hope Over Fear 3.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Miss Moon Pie 15.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Jump Into the Fire 2.50 4.3 8-1
7 7 Baby Gundin 6.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Extra Halo 10.00 1 2-1
2 2 Bear River 3.00 4 8-1
1 1 Quencio 12.00 5.2 10-1
11 11 Mirage 8.00 6.7 13-1
6 6 Barnaby 12.00 7 13-1
9 9 Stunnem 3.50 7 13-1
8 8 Great Richie M 12.00 7.6 14-1
12 12 Lead Foot 30.00 7.8 15-1
4 4 All the Rage 4.50 8.2 15-1
5 5 Capital Cause 15.00 9.9 19-1
3 3 Vino Caldo 12.00 11 21-1
10 10 Munyhungry 15.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Silver Bull 8.00 1 2-1
2 2 My Uncle Frank 10.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Night Chant 15.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Bad Boy for Life 10.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 Chitwood 4.50 6.6 12-1
11 11 Solevo 4.00 7 13-1
12 12 Pacific States 3.50 7.1 13-1
1 1 Mr. Commander 15.00 7.3 14-1
3 3 Lobo Salvaje 20.00 7.9 15-1
10 10 Delta Delta 8.00 8.8 17-1
7 7 Laughinalltheway 10.00 9.1 17-1
9 9 Quality Temper 20.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Straight and Level 8.00 1 2-1
11 11 Foxtrotanna 12.00 4.1 8-1
15 15 Halmstad 1.60 4.9 9-1
2 2 Double Clutch 2.50 6.5 12-1
6 6 Baie Longue 6.00 6.6 12-1
8 8 Talkin’ Cash 3.50 6.9 13-1
1 1 Town Barber 10.00 7.8 15-1
4 4 Western Command 20.00 8.5 16-1
10 10 Huntertown 20.00 8.8 17-1
12 12 Trust Daddy 30.00 9.6 18-1
9 9 Zartownis 15.00 11.5 22-1
3 3 Cigarette Boat 6.00 11.7 22-1
13 13 Mesa Spirit 8.00 11.9 22-1
14 14 Immortalization 8.00 13.7 26-1
7 7 St. Paddy’s Charm 15.00 15 28-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Cat’s Cave 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Hush It Honey 4.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Above the Sun 5.00 2.9 5-1
7 7 Puckered 3.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Rock Star Doctor 4.50 3.9 7-1
3 3 Bold Baby 6.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 Anna’s Wish 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Outspoken 8.00 1 2-1
5 5 Beautiful Mischief 4.50 2 4-1
4 4 Charm of the Song 10.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Summerintahoe 10.00 4.1 8-1
14 14 Tappin Into Genius 15.00 6 11-1
9 9 Fantomah 15.00 7.2 14-1
3 3 Bedazzle ‘Em 3.50 7.6 14-1
12 12 Hope Mission 8.00 8.4 16-1
2 2 How Soon Is Now 6.00 8.5 16-1
7 7 Tiz Sweet Emotion 15.00 9 17-1
1 1 Lady Driller 6.00 9.1 17-1
11 11 Wonder of You 12.00 10.6 20-1
10 10 Trial 12.00 13.2 25-1
6 6 Caladium 15.00 14 26-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Libertango 10.00 1 2-1
4 4 Concept 5.00 2.3 4-1
9 9 Magnificent Mile 3.00 2.9 5-1
8 8 Talkscheap 20.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Sheriff Ronnie 12.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Fan the Fire 2.50 4.1 8-1
5 5 Solar Power 15.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Lupo’s Legacy 8.00 5.9 11-1
6 6 Forever Cool 6.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 Rewire 15.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Strong Quality 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Johny’s Fireball 4.50 3.3 6-1
9 9 Gunton Roe 15.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Underdressed 15.00 4 8-1
4 4 Big Blue Line 12.00 5 10-1
10 10 Good Governance (GB) 12.00 6.9 13-1
12 12 Street Ready 10.00 7.1 13-1
14 14 Brigadier General 2.50 8.1 15-1
8 8 Kingmax (IRE) 10.00 8.2 15-1
3 3 Henley’s Joy 12.00 8.5 16-1
11 11 Native Thunder 20.00 8.9 17-1
7 7 English Tavern 3.50 8.9 17-1
15 15 Group Eighteen 12.00 9.7 18-1
1 1 Scanno 30.00 13.1 25-1
13 13 The Reds 8.00 15 28-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Chilukki S.) – Chilukki S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Oeuvre 5.00 1 2-1
7 7 Falconet 4.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Hidden Connection 2.50 3.4 6-1
1 1 Nostalgic 4.50 3.5 7-1
6 6 Braganza 12.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 Be Like Water 20.00 5.3 10-1
5 5 She Can’t Sing 8.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Raindrops On Roses 30.00 5.8 11-1
9 9 Hot and Sultry 3.50 5.8 11-1
Nostalgic 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
14 14 Rainy Night 8.00 1 2-1
2 2 The J Factor 20.00 1.2 2-1
8 8 Caberneigh 3.50 1.7 3-1
4 4 Unmatched 15.00 2.9 6-1
5 5 Velvet Kisses 8.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Miss Enchanted 10.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Pretty Song 10.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 All Out of Grace 10.00 5.5 10-1
11 11 Sonhador 10.00 5.7 11-1
12 12 Divine Gal 15.00 6.4 12-1
13 13 Tap the Champagne 10.00 6.6 12-1
6 6 Copperdrop 3.00 7 13-1
9 9 Adeleke 6.00 7.2 14-1
10 10 Vino Mizel 30.00 7.3 14-1
Divine Gal 15 28-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.