Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, November 18, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Midnight Hurricane 4.00 1 2-1
3 3 Charli Michael 4.00 2.4 5-1
8 8 Win Ya Win 3.00 2.9 5-1
6 6 Motion to Strike 5.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Two Dot 8.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Breaking News 4.50 4 8-1
5 5 Gotta Go 12.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Jrue Breeze 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Custom Bobby’s 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Star Redemption 6.00 1.3 2-1
7 7 Starport 6.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Like This 4.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Bouldering 8.00 7 13-1
2 2 Chad’s Flash 12.00 7.8 15-1
4 4 Hoosier 6.00 7.9 15-1
8 8 Anders Smile 3.50 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Absolute Courage 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Golden Flash 4.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 My Tennis Shoes 8.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Never Sorry 12.00 5.3 10-1
8 8 Storm Strategy 4.50 6.6 12-1
6 6 Larry’s Lunchbox 5.00 6.8 13-1
7 7 Feeling Free 10.00 7.4 14-1
9 9 Rockall 12.00 8.6 16-1
10 10 Meet George Jetson 15.00 9.9 19-1
4 4 Sweet Present 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Skykat 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 Stack Shack 10.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Cave Creek 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Seaward 8.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 My Little Jen 5.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Quinn Murphy 4.50 5 10-1
10 10 Watrugonnadokaren 10.00 5.1 10-1
11 11 Angel of Verdun 8.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Faded Memories 20.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 Xcaret 15.00 6.3 12-1
2 2 Broadway Pearl 20.00 8.5 16-1
9 9 Hot Dame 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Joseph R. Peluso Memorial S.) – Joseph R. Peluso Memorial S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 El Dinero 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 Rising Koto Star 12.00 1.2 2-1
7 7 Stovall 4.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Western Afleet 20.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Pop’s Peppysteper 8.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 Summertime Peppers 4.50 2.6 5-1
9 9 A Thousand Dollars 6.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Prodigy Paradise 4.50 3.6 7-1
8 8 Blame Me Seriously 8.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Honky Tonk Highway 4.00 1 2-1
7 7 Malibu Rain 4.50 1 2-1
1 1 King of the Palace 12.00 1.1 2-1
4 4 Do Your Job 6.00 1.4 3-1
10 10 Norwich 8.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Oy Vey 5.00 2.7 5-1
13 13 Finish the Mission 8.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Rock N Roll Bolt 20.00 4.3 8-1
12 12 Last Attack 15.00 5.6 10-1
3 3 Hot Wings 10.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 Cabernaydo 12.00 9.4 18-1
5 5 Sugar Hook 8.00 9.7 18-1
15 15 Gavel 6.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Carry the Flag 20.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Sharp Strike 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Notorious 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Jacob V. Morreale Memorial S.) – Jacob V. Morreale Memorial S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Who Took the Money 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Behemah Star 4.50 2.6 5-1
3 3 Budro Talking 8.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Woods N Water 6.00 3.4 6-1
9 9 Highland Creek 8.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 Allnight Moonlight 5.00 6.1 12-1
6 6 Mangum 4.50 6.1 12-1
4 4 Cosmic Train 12.00 7.4 14-1
5 5 Drilling Report 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Creative Cairo 6.00 1 2-1
10 10 Yankee Dollar 8.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Tufani 4.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Musical Score 5.00 3.3 6-1
12 12 Lady Jeopardy 12.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Tasweya 5.00 5.2 10-1
9 9 Present Moment (IRE) 8.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Tryinmyheartout 8.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Rose Palace 20.00 6.4 12-1
7 7 Russian Mafia 20.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Bramble Bay 15.00 6.9 13-1
11 11 Sweet Chablis 15.00 10.1 19-1
13 13 Roya 30.00 13 25-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Larry D. Robideaux Memorial S.) – Larry D. Robideaux Memorial S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Scooteria 8.00 1 2-1
1 1 Mike J 5.00 1.2 2-1
2 2 Helaire 20.00 2.1 4-1
10 10 Jack Hammer 6.00 2.4 4-1
8 8 Autumns Strong Man 12.00 2.4 5-1
9 9 Black Sword 10.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Langs Day 4.50 3.5 7-1
7 7 Jax Man 12.00 3.6 7-1
11 11 Ranch Badge 30.00 7.2 14-1
12 12 Bertie’s Galaxy 10.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Half Again 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Unified Report 12.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Mangum 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Platinum Minit 4.50 1 2-1
12 12 A Miss Deameanor 12.00 1.1 2-1
13 13 Our Last Half 8.00 1.2 2-1
2 2 Moion 10.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Ground Control 8.00 4.8 9-1
10 10 About to Set Sail 10.00 5.7 11-1
9 9 Undercover Girl 3.50 6 11-1
8 8 Country Belle 20.00 7.2 14-1
7 7 Our Indian Girl 30.00 10 19-1
3 3 Sacred Saint 6.00 10.2 19-1
4 4 Mo Diva 8.00 10.5 20-1
11 11 No Fear 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Good N Sassy 6.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.