Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, November 19, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Enclosure 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Vanished 1.80 2.1 4-1
5 5 Medaglia Forever 1.20 2.6 5-1
2 2 Shirl’s Delight 12.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Raggity Sand 12.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Implementation 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Tee Burns 8.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Prisoner 1.60 4.5 8-1
3 3 Don’t Wait Up 15.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 Vulcan 8.00 6.8 13-1
4 4 Nifty 6.00 7.2 14-1
8 8 Group Eighteen 12.00 7.6 14-1
7 7 Solidify 8.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Quebrancho 6.00 1 2-1
2 2 Stone Harbor 5.00 1.6 3-1
4 4 Brilliant Man 10.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 B Wayne 1.60 2 4-1
7 7 Mor Jazz 15.00 2 4-1
6 6 Action Hero 2.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Gotta Have Dreams 8.00 3.3 6-1
Stone Harbor 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Belperron 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 The Princess Says 4.50 1.1 2-1
5 5 Summer of Mischief 2.50 2.6 5-1
7 7 Ruby Foo 10.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Jennifer My Love 3.50 4.6 9-1
4 4 Code for Success 5.00 6.8 13-1
6 6 Royal Blood 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Princess Is Olivia 3.00 1 2-1
9 9 Mischief Jac 8.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Shezthefactor 4.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Pam Pam 5.00 7.7 15-1
10 10 Miss Jeopardy 10.00 7.8 15-1
4 4 Pounce 10.00 7.9 15-1
7 7 Evocation 20.00 8.9 17-1
11 11 Splash Master 10.00 9.8 19-1
6 6 Mahjong Girl 12.00 10.1 19-1
13 13 Safecracker Sue 15.00 10.7 20-1
5 5 Rybakina 12.00 10.8 20-1
8 8 Sybarite 20.00 10.8 20-1
12 12 The Big Calhouna 12.00 13 25-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Faithful King 6.00 1 2-1
8 8 Treaty 2.50 2.3 4-1
4 4 Yono 3.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Mohaafeth 6.00 4 8-1
3 3 Liam the Brave 8.00 4 8-1
5 5 Schmoozin 8.00 4.5 8-1
1 1 Carmichael 8.00 6.8 13-1
2 2 Cox Canyon 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Shakin Loose 6.00 1 2-1
1 1 High Headed 12.00 2.3 4-1
8 8 Yo Banana Boy 5.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Danner 12.00 6 11-1
7 7 Goldbrick 8.00 6.3 12-1
6 6 Famous Final Scene 15.00 7 13-1
9 9 Carbone 4.50 7.6 14-1
5 5 Miyagi 3.00 7.6 14-1
10 10 Decatur Street 8.00 8.4 16-1
2 2 Moonlight Road 10.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Rarify 3.50 1 2-1
11 11 Little Mombo 3.50 4.6 9-1
3 3 Kick a Rhyme (IRE) 4.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 Numero Seis 8.00 6.6 12-1
10 10 Just a Care (IRE) 3.00 7.4 14-1
4 4 Proud Mary 8.00 7.6 14-1
6 6 Firing Bullets 10.00 7.8 15-1
12 12 Little Blaze 8.00 10.9 21-1
1 1 Yolanda Who 20.00 11.2 21-1
13 13 Ruthless Rua 10.00 11.8 22-1
14 14 Souper Explosive 4.00 12.2 23-1
2 2 Mornin’ Boss 20.00 13.1 25-1
7 7 Devine Charger 12.00 14 26-1
5 5 Happy Am I 15.00 14 26-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Know Who You Are 10.00 1 2-1
6 6 Cash Only 3.00 2.8 5-1
9 9 Coastal Brink 6.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Jacked 4.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Tis Charming 3.50 4.6 9-1
2 2 Manfredi 15.00 5.1 10-1
10 10 Midnight Maestro 15.00 6.1 12-1
4 4 Cathy’s Boy 8.00 6.7 13-1
8 8 Runnin Munnin 10.00 7.1 13-1
1 1 Karlwithanarl 15.00 10 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.