Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, November 22, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Willadean 6.00 1 2-1
3 3 Mamba Out 3.50 2.2 4-1
1 1 Valiant Praise 3.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Lil Town Sis 4.00 4 8-1
5 5 Squash Blossom 12.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Seventeensevitysix 20.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 Collect a Lil 8.00 7.6 14-1
4 4 Daisy Jones 4.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Hastings Sunrise 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 Fire Bryan 10.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Air Combat 2.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 G T Five Hundred 6.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Take the Charge 3.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Trigger Happy 8.00 4.5 8-1
4 4 Catipari 20.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 El Franco 20.00 6 11-1
Trigger Happy 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Active Duty 4.00 1 2-1
3 3 We Will Conquer 8.00 2 4-1
9 9 Dr Kringle 5.00 2 4-1
10 10 Cafe Racer 3.50 2.2 4-1
6 6 Empire’s Best 5.00 2.4 4-1
5 5 Egyptian King 15.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Vigano 12.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Away From Home 5.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 My Sanctuary 12.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Beaumont Red 12.00 6.3 12-1
Vigano 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Funstruck 30.00 1 2-1
2 2 Now That Ican Rock 6.00 1.4 3-1
1 1 Bel Ami 5.00 1.5 3-1
7 7 Elegant Trip 6.00 1.6 3-1
11 11 Stonks 4.50 2.4 5-1
10 10 Athens Moon 8.00 2.4 5-1
3 3 Be There 15.00 2.6 5-1
9 9 Crossing 20.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Archie the Giza 8.00 4.5 8-1
13 13 Remarkable Mo 5.00 5.6 11-1
12 12 Main Line Cipher 6.00 6 11-1
6 6 Quality West 4.00 6.2 12-1
5 5 Mohegan 10.00 7.5 14-1
Stonks 16 30-1
Archie the Giza 16 30-1
Main Line Cipher 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Wellman 6.00 1 2-1
3 3 Risk Profile 3.50 1.5 3-1
5 5 Upstriker 3.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Devoted to You 20.00 2 4-1
8 8 Speight and Malice 15.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Palace Kitten 2.50 2.8 5-1
7 7 Steinbeck 10.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Drop It 20.00 3.6 7-1
9 9 Macho Rocco 8.00 3.9 7-1
Upstriker 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Standoutsensation 3.50 1 2-1
9 9 My Favorite Girl 5.00 1.3 2-1
4 4 Show Me the Candy 12.00 2.9 6-1
10 10 Savannamarie 10.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 She’s a Saint 20.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Vino From Ernies 20.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Business as Usual 4.00 5.3 10-1
11 11 Broughty Ferry 15.00 5.9 11-1
12 12 Corkage Fee 12.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 Money Works 4.50 6.7 13-1
5 5 Mother Freedom 30.00 7.6 14-1
8 8 Avalon Girl 6.00 7.8 15-1
Standoutsensation 13 25-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Attache 2.00 1 2-1
9 9 Olliemeister 3.50 3.2 6-1
2 2 Supremely 4.00 4 7-1
1 1 Pass Line 20.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Dr. Perry 12.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Born Flawless 5.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 Airborne Elite 10.00 7.1 13-1
4 4 Chance 8.00 7.6 14-1
5 5 Rocking Rocket 15.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Joke Sisi (CHI) 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 More Than Vows 10.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Aunt Becca 5.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Let’s Be Clear 4.50 3.6 7-1
6 6 Willow Bend 5.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Napa Candy 6.00 6.5 12-1
4 4 Take a Stand 10.00 7.5 14-1
7 7 Zawish 10.00 7.8 15-1
8 8 Unsolved Mystery 10.00 9.8 18-1
10 10 Naughty Lottie 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
14 14 Run Jalen Run 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Debt Paid 8.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Wecallemfuncoupons 8.00 4.3 8-1
12 12 Yaqui Valley 4.00 5.9 11-1
11 11 Runaway Joke 15.00 8.6 16-1
13 13 Bear River 4.00 9 17-1
7 7 Stradivarian 20.00 11.3 21-1
10 10 Salming 4.50 11.4 22-1
2 2 Mohawk River 3.50 12 23-1
15 15 Mor Zip 15.00 12.7 24-1
8 8 Gagliardi 6.00 12.8 24-1
9 9 Mackville 15.00 12.9 24-1
4 4 Fear and Loathing 20.00 14.6 28-1
6 6 Adrift 20.00 14.7 28-1
3 3 County Judge 10.00 15 28-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.