Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, November 23, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Let’s Go Mark 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Smoothdini 12.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Mena 3.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Americus 4.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Tizzy Indy 4.50 5.4 10-1
1 1 I’m Your Man 2.50 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Red River Magic 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Warwoman 12.00 4.1 8-1
10 10 Tidal Tactics 8.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Stagflation 12.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Blue Topaz 15.00 5.4 10-1
15 15 Soul Heir 15.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Eyes of Gold 12.00 6 11-1
3 3 Milieu 2.50 6.2 12-1
9 9 Upswell 8.00 6.8 13-1
13 13 Take Shape 10.00 7 13-1
14 14 Mucho Macho Chick 15.00 7.8 15-1
7 7 Crimaldi 10.00 8.1 15-1
2 2 Cause I’m Wild 20.00 9.2 17-1
12 12 Bag Lady 15.00 9.4 18-1
16 16 Violet Flame 30.00 10.1 19-1
8 8 Default 15.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Theresasilverlinin 4.00 1 2-1
2 2 Tenacious Lady 5.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Pachanga Loca 3.00 2.4 5-1
3 3 Steel Racer 3.50 2.8 5-1
4 4 Shell Shock 2.50 3.2 6-1
6 6 Lost Bikini 10.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Jackie’s Love 15.00 4.5 8-1
Shell Shock 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Different Flame 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 Title Contender 3.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 Patch O’Brien 8.00 1.8 3-1
9 9 Ultimate Strike 4.00 1.9 4-1
8 8 Sting Music 6.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Quencio 15.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Track Light 5.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Master of the Nite 15.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 East From West 15.00 5.6 11-1
Quencio 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Filly Crystal 12.00 1 2-1
2 2 Pillbox 2.00 1.2 2-1
9 9 Sister Kisses 15.00 1.6 3-1
8 8 Little Sister Sue 8.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Story Hour 2.50 2.4 5-1
1 1 St. Benedicts Prep 6.00 3 6-1
7 7 Luna Moth 8.00 4 8-1
4 4 Ghostly Night 12.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Ball Gown 10.00 4.9 9-1
St. Benedicts Prep 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Sultry Lass 12.00 1 2-1
9 9 Wings Like Eagles 4.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Cant Keep Me Down 4.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Excellent Question 3.50 4.7 9-1
4 4 Cha Cha Tap 12.00 4.8 9-1
10 10 Rosie’s Alibi 10.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Hola Gata 3.00 7.8 15-1
7 7 Yarborough 15.00 8.5 16-1
11 11 Thestral 3.00 10.1 19-1
2 2 Little Dixie 20.00 10.3 19-1
5 5 Musical Mischief 10.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Reddington 2.50 1 2-1
9 9 Platinum Ghost 6.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Dual Monarchy 6.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 Jewelstown 4.00 6.7 13-1
6 6 David’s Tuition 30.00 7 13-1
10 10 American Icon 15.00 7.6 14-1
12 12 Carnivore 4.50 9.4 18-1
1 1 Punctuality 15.00 10.5 20-1
2 2 Insignis 20.00 10.6 20-1
11 11 Bucktown 12.00 11.3 21-1
3 3 Oneparticulrharbor 15.00 11.5 22-1
4 4 Man’s Choice 30.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Best Actor 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 O Besos 2.50 1.5 3-1
2 2 Twilight Blue 4.50 1.9 4-1
3 3 Injunction 6.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Pro Oxidant 15.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Pioneer of Medina 4.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Go Emi 20.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Buck Moon 20.00 5.2 10-1
Pro Oxidant 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Strava 4.00 1 2-1
8 8 W W Candy 8.00 1.8 3-1
12 12 Blue Light 15.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 Ducale 3.50 3.2 6-1
4 4 Cyclone Mischief 5.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Awesome Aaron 20.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 Invulnerable 8.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Bourbon Heist 12.00 5.6 11-1
10 10 Angkor 4.50 6.2 12-1
5 5 Mr Bob 10.00 9 17-1
1 1 Embrace 30.00 9.2 17-1
11 11 Greener Pastures 30.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Cardinal S.) – Cardinal S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Walkathon 4.00 1 2-1
7 7 Saffron Moon 2.00 1.6 3-1
3 3 Lovely Princess 3.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Juncture (GB) 2.50 2.2 4-1
1 1 Joyful Applause 8.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Take a Stand 30.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Star Fortress (IRE) 12.00 4.7 9-1
Saffron Moon 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Falls City S.) – Falls City S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Xigera 0.60 1 2-1
1 1 Hidden Connection 3.00 2.5 5-1
9 9 Bellamore 8.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Distinctlypossible 12.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Shezz Koldazice 20.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Misty Veil 12.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Skratch Kat 15.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 Music Street 30.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Jag Warrior 30.00 5.4 10-1
Music Street 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 12 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Lady Moscato 3.50 1 2-1
9 9 Outspoken 6.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Plagne Champagne 10.00 3.7 7-1
13 13 Ladle 15.00 4.8 9-1
11 11 Tale of La Bee 4.50 6.1 12-1
14 14 Kerlo’s Cause 20.00 6.7 13-1
10 10 Mischievous Mind 4.00 6.8 13-1
8 8 Miranda 20.00 7.5 14-1
2 2 Parade Down Broad 8.00 7.7 14-1
1 1 Mo Attitude 15.00 7.7 15-1
7 7 Legadema 8.00 7.8 15-1
5 5 No Body Loves Me 30.00 8 15-1
3 3 Tappin Into Genius 20.00 8 15-1
4 4 Uno Le 20.00 8 15-1
Miranda 15 28-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.