Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, November 24, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Dixie Rag 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Guest of Honor 3.50 1.5 3-1
8 8 Miss Claudette 10.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Champagne Surprise 4.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Princess Kalamoh 4.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Spite Lite 8.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Impeccable Timing 12.00 5.9 11-1
7 7 Sacred Connection 12.00 6.4 12-1
Champagne Surprise 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Spanish Doubloon 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Battle Born 3.50 1.6 3-1
8 8 Hijack the Party 4.50 2.4 4-1
4 4 Auto Dial 4.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Palmisano 8.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Cloud Without Rein 6.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Augustus Blue 10.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Lips Say Bliss 10.00 5.5 10-1
Hijack the Party 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Sonador 3.50 1 2-1
3 3 Buckeye Rose 4.00 1.7 3-1
9 9 Night Kiss 12.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Ship It 6.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Domitia Lucilla 20.00 7.6 14-1
5 5 Arden’s Assault 3.00 7.8 15-1
4 4 Dogwoodsmilliejane 12.00 8.5 16-1
8 8 Just Like Magic 5.00 8.8 17-1
1 1 Musicmansandy 6.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 January Jubilee 5.00 1 2-1
1 1 Unmatched 4.50 2.7 5-1
8 8 Wreck It Ruby 6.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Motel Mischief 10.00 5.6 11-1
10 10 Chiquita Reina 6.00 8 15-1
6 6 Babe in the Woods 4.00 8.3 16-1
12 12 Wind Chasin 15.00 8.4 16-1
5 5 Loveya Loveya More 20.00 8.8 17-1
13 13 Twilight Sonata 12.00 10.2 19-1
9 9 Run Run Rabbit 20.00 11.2 21-1
14 14 Vivis in Front 12.00 11.5 22-1
7 7 Angel On Fire 15.00 12.5 24-1
4 4 Angelic Vision 8.00 13 25-1
11 11 Prix 20.00 14 26-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Hollywood Ending 1.40 1 2-1
5 5 Mount Craig 5.00 1.3 2-1
6 6 Collier’s Time 12.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Peek 10.00 4.5 8-1
4 4 Spielman 1.80 5.6 11-1
7 7 Remarkable Mo 10.00 5.9 11-1
9 9 Surface to Air 30.00 6.9 13-1
2 2 Pineland 15.00 8.8 17-1
8 8 Texas Pride 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Grand Aspen 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Hilliard 3.50 1.1 2-1
1 1 The Prince’s Spur 8.00 1.7 3-1
13 13 Idratherbeblessed 15.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 Mackillop 6.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Read On 20.00 3.2 6-1
9 9 Clyde’s Got a Gun 6.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Endpoint 20.00 5.6 11-1
8 8 Shogun Warrior 15.00 6 11-1
7 7 Raise High 8.00 6.3 12-1
16 16 Spy Novel 20.00 8.8 17-1
4 4 Redeemer 8.00 9.1 17-1
10 10 Runningforjoy 20.00 10.1 19-1
15 15 Stroke of Midnight 30.00 12.4 23-1
14 14 El Ahijado 30.00 12.7 24-1
12 12 Boco 30.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Wind of Change (BRZ) 2.00 1 2-1
6 6 Trashtalkinyankee 10.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Under the Gun 6.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Kattath 10.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Lykan 6.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Chief Buckeye 15.00 6.3 12-1
9 9 Stonevicious 3.00 6.8 13-1
5 5 Home Run Trick 8.00 8.6 16-1
8 8 Atta Boy Anthony 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Sweet Gal of Mine 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Cleopatra Selene 4.50 3.4 6-1
14 14 Palace Drive 10.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Angel of Faith 12.00 3.8 7-1
9 9 Tanya Showers 3.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Coffee Crisp 15.00 7.1 13-1
4 4 Figgy 10.00 7.4 14-1
10 10 Lemon Muffin 10.00 7.7 14-1
13 13 Eight Days Sober 15.00 8.4 16-1
6 6 Canaima 20.00 8.5 16-1
12 12 Pula 10.00 9.1 17-1
8 8 Aunt Fannie 12.00 10 19-1
7 7 Route Sixty Six 30.00 11.4 21-1
11 11 Tapwrit Warrior 30.00 14 26-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Punchbowl 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Chop Chop 3.50 1.8 3-1
1 1 The Alys Look 4.00 2 4-1
5 5 Two Item Saver 10.00 4 8-1
9 9 Magical Lute 12.00 4.4 8-1
10 10 Alexa Lou 20.00 5.4 10-1
8 8 Nomadic Pride 15.00 6.1 11-1
11 11 Abundancia 30.00 6.8 13-1
6 6 Corningstone 6.00 7.1 13-1
7 7 Secret Statement 15.00 8.2 15-1
2 2 Chiquita Mosca 30.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Mrs. Revere S.) – Mrs. Revere S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Heavenly Sunday 3.50 1 2-1
8 8 Make the Boys Wink 6.00 1.6 3-1
3 3 Neecie Marie 4.00 1.7 3-1
7 7 Bling 5.00 3.5 7-1
10 10 Watch This Birdie 8.00 4.2 8-1
9 9 Safeen 8.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Cha Cha Tap 30.00 7 13-1
4 4 Hay Stack 10.00 8.9 17-1
5 5 Sabalenka 12.00 9.2 17-1
11 11 Callie’s Grit 12.00 9.4 18-1
6 6 Financial Advice (FR) 30.00 9.4 18-1
1 1 Beach Walkn 30.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Clark S. Presented By Norton Healthcare) – Clark S. Presented By Norton Healthcare

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Straight Arrow 8.00 1 2-1
2 2 First Mission 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Gasoline 5.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Il Miracolo 4.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Trademark 6.00 2.9 5-1
6 6 Film Star 5.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Giant Game 12.00 5.5 10-1
10 10 Blue Devil 10.00 7.6 14-1
9 9 Stage Raider 12.00 9.7 18-1
8 8 Happy American 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 12 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Eyes of Gold 3.00 1 2-1
9 9 Blue Topaz 5.00 1.2 2-1
5 5 Stagflation 5.00 1.6 3-1
8 8 Imperator Furiosa 4.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Animal Fries 6.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Birdie Rose 12.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 Lipochrome 15.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Stage Bell 10.00 4.2 8-1
10 10 Ladan 8.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 Soul Heir 20.00 6.1 12-1
Stagflation 11 21-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.