Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, November 25, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Tireless 3.00 1 2-1
9 9 Publius 5.00 2.5 5-1
16 16 Mo Caliente 5.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Bourbon’s Fault 6.00 3.8 7-1
14 14 Sheriff Joe 6.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Vivaldi 4.00 7.8 15-1
12 12 Raguel 5.00 8.2 15-1
5 5 Gamblin George 12.00 9.2 17-1
10 10 Phreddie Mac 12.00 10.3 19-1
2 2 Mandatory Meeting 8.00 10.4 20-1
1 1 Higginsville 15.00 11.6 22-1
8 8 Melee 12.00 12.6 24-1
11 11 Live to Ride (GB) 4.50 12.6 24-1
7 7 Tuscany’s Eagle 20.00 13.7 26-1
4 4 Noahs Ark 30.00 15 28-1
15 15 Finn McSorley 8.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 El Magnifico 4.00 1 2-1
12 12 Top of the Street 10.00 5.3 10-1
15 15 Vesture 4.00 7.6 14-1
9 9 Rocketeightyeight 15.00 7.7 15-1
16 16 Drobny 12.00 8.4 16-1
7 7 Daily Grind 12.00 10.3 19-1
6 6 Linebacker 3.00 11.1 21-1
3 3 Legalize 3.50 12.3 23-1
13 13 Riverwalk 10.00 12.8 24-1
5 5 Military Cruiser 8.00 13.3 25-1
8 8 Gold Search 15.00 13.7 26-1
11 11 Full Armor 15.00 14.4 27-1
2 2 Smackover Lime 12.00 14.5 27-1
10 10 Anthem King 20.00 14.9 28-1
14 14 Kissthemoon 12.00 15.9 30-1
4 4 San Siro 15.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Lagynos 4.00 1 2-1
10 10 Gorilla Trek 5.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Steeler Mischief 20.00 4 8-1
2 2 Footprint 6.00 4.7 9-1
12 12 Tifareeh 6.00 5.4 10-1
11 11 Depiction 3.50 7.2 14-1
6 6 Good Bali 20.00 7.5 14-1
3 3 Time Song 12.00 8.5 16-1
4 4 Aspenite 6.00 9.6 18-1
9 9 Mission Ready 30.00 10.1 19-1
7 7 Thomas Aquinas 10.00 10.8 20-1
8 8 Legal Titan 30.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Asternia 20.00 1 2-1
5 5 Our Keepsake 15.00 4.3 8-1
13 13 Kenwick 20.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Autumn Chill 10.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Floored 20.00 5.6 11-1
11 11 Zadorsky 6.00 7.2 14-1
8 8 Wee Bit O Mischief 20.00 8 15-1
10 10 Lookster 4.50 8.8 17-1
6 6 Mo Sense 20.00 10.7 20-1
12 12 Balladry 30.00 10.7 20-1
1 1 Tarifa 2.50 11.6 22-1
7 7 Denim and Pearls 5.00 11.7 22-1
2 2 Ice Cold 5.00 13 25-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
16 16 Lady Moscato 5.00 1 2-1
12 12 Perfect Shot 3.50 4.6 9-1
1 1 Legal Deceiver 15.00 6.5 12-1
11 11 Takethesilver 12.00 8.2 15-1
14 14 Fun Loving 20.00 8.3 16-1
5 5 Irina’s Charm 3.00 8.5 16-1
9 9 Flight to Paris 6.00 9.5 18-1
3 3 Shiloh’s Mistress 15.00 10.1 19-1
6 6 Mishka 4.00 10.2 19-1
8 8 Little Jamie 20.00 12.2 23-1
15 15 Viable 15.00 13.4 25-1
2 2 Oh My Mia 20.00 13.9 26-1
4 4 Just a Coed 8.00 14.2 27-1
13 13 Churning Berni 20.00 15.9 30-1
10 10 Winnable 15.00 15.9 30-1
7 7 Streetwhereyoulive 20.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Pendulum 3.00 1 2-1
13 13 Pin Up Betty 6.00 5.6 11-1
8 8 Yammy Yammy Bella 30.00 7.4 14-1
3 3 Floribunda 2.50 7.9 15-1
10 10 Round the Town 10.00 7.9 15-1
9 9 Dazzlin’ Dictator 10.00 8.4 16-1
11 11 Speak Up 10.00 9.3 18-1
15 15 Magic Gathering 12.00 11.2 21-1
16 16 Its Satisfactual 12.00 12 23-1
4 4 Willowy 20.00 12.1 23-1
7 7 Contour 10.00 13.2 25-1
5 5 Washashore 5.00 13.4 25-1
12 12 Band of Gold 12.00 15.2 29-1
14 14 Egyptian Candy 3.00 15.2 29-1
6 6 My Sexy Blonde 20.00 15.9 30-1
2 2 Luminous Ruler 30.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Vitement 12.00 1 2-1
5 5 Informed Patriot 3.00 1.2 2-1
1 1 Who Dey 10.00 2.3 4-1
12 12 Market Street 20.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Candymaker 15.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Barksdale 20.00 5.7 11-1
11 11 Triple Trea 12.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 Mystik Dan 4.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 Mi Oscuro Secreto 30.00 7.9 15-1
2 2 Bergen 3.50 8.2 15-1
10 10 The Process 8.00 8.5 16-1
6 6 Knicks Storm 10.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Top Gun Rocket 4.50 1 2-1
7 7 Track Phantom 3.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Lat Long 4.00 7 13-1
5 5 D Day Sky 10.00 8.6 16-1
10 10 Greers Ferry 15.00 8.8 17-1
2 2 Lou’s Legacy 15.00 9 17-1
14 14 Yell County 20.00 9.1 17-1
4 4 Wistucky 10.00 9.8 19-1
1 1 Stop the Press 10.00 11.8 22-1
9 9 Domingo 12.00 12.3 23-1
8 8 Surf City 12.00 12.6 24-1
3 3 Mr. Faversham 20.00 12.9 24-1
13 13 Hall of Fame 8.00 13.3 25-1
12 12 Droptop Caddy 10.00 14 26-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Ed Brown S.) – Ed Brown S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Molly’s Town 12.00 1 2-1
7 7 Just Steel 6.00 2.3 4-1
8 8 Divieto 8.00 2.4 5-1
6 6 Normandy Hero 5.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Agoo 6.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Bye Bye Liam 8.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Gabarra 15.00 7.5 14-1
1 1 Bowstreet 10.00 8.2 16-1
9 9 Booth 1.40 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Golden Rod S.) – Golden Rod S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 West Sunset 2.00 1 2-1
6 6 Gin Gin 8.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 Central Avenue 5.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Thorpedo Anna 1.60 5.4 10-1
2 2 Intricate 6.00 6.3 12-1
4 4 Here’s the Spider 30.00 6.6 13-1
1 1 Dozen Diamonds 20.00 7.1 13-1
3 3 Purloin 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Kentucky Jockey Club S.) – Kentucky Jockey Club S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Risk It 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Stretch Ride 3.00 1.1 2-1
1 1 Awesome Road 3.50 2.5 5-1
2 2 Honor Marie 8.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Dancing Groom 10.00 6 11-1
5 5 Nomos 12.00 6.5 12-1
3 3 Real Men Violin 5.00 6.9 13-1
8 8 One Red Cent 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 12 (Fern Creek S.) – Fern Creek S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Youalmosthadme 1.60 1 2-1
10 10 Sharp Tune 6.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Saratoga Secret 12.00 2.2 4-1
12 12 Irish Maxima 12.00 4 8-1
11 11 Bella Haze 12.00 4.2 8-1
9 9 Wellareyouhappynow 30.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 Pinotslilgirl 30.00 5 9-1
2 2 Fibber 15.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 Field Lass 10.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Talkin in Cursive 30.00 10.9 21-1
4 4 Halina’s Forte 2.50 11 21-1
6 6 Ma Rae’s Girl 20.00 12 23-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.