Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Friday, December 1, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Growth Mindset 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Elevated Causeway 3.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Golden Purchase 6.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Union Tap 4.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 No Surrender 5.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 I Love Cara 4.50 4 8-1
7 7 A Lister 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Thank You Jon 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Deputy Connect 4.50 1.4 3-1
4 4 Duke of Gloucester 2.50 2.2 4-1
3 3 Masterwork 5.00 2.4 4-1
1 1 Face Abarrio 3.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Opportunity Set 6.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Causes Trouble 2.50 1 2-1
3 2 Kunshan Bridge 2.00 1.4 3-1
1A 5 Kingdom 2.50 3.2 6-1
6 7 One Whirlwind Ride 10.00 3.5 7-1
5 6 Bobby the Tank 4.00 3.7 7-1
2 1 Burn Jakey Burn 12.00 3.9 7-1
1 4 Kant Beat the Rock 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1A 7 Styner 1.20 1 2-1
2 1 Bobby G 2.50 1.7 3-1
1 2 Wild Banker 1.20 2.1 4-1
7 8 Dontbelate 12.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Cool Quartet 3.00 2.9 5-1
4 4 Lord Gatling 15.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Achilles Heel 10.00 6.1 12-1
3 3 Hang Tight 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Nikitis 1.60 1 2-1
2 2 Curlin’s Girl 1.40 3.8 7-1
6 6 Wynning Touch 6.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Extra Dirty 20.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Very Practical 12.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Whocouldaskformo 6.00 6.2 12-1
3 3 Kathynmarissa 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 My Man Matty 4.00 1 2-1
1 1 Icy Flavor 4.50 1.3 2-1
2 2 Ten Cent Town 6.00 2 4-1
7 7 Forward Motion 20.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Dr. Settle’s Dream 8.00 4 7-1
3 3 Dr. Kraft 4.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Signal Corps 3.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Prince of Truth 6.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Blu Grotto 0 0-1
4 4 Amani’s Eagle 2.50 1 2-1
8 9 Regality 5.00 1.7 3-1
1 2 Norgay 12.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Union Lights 3.50 2.6 5-1
7 8 Salute to America 8.00 3 6-1
2 1 Cheeky Tico 8.00 3 6-1
6 6 M B’s Munning 8.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Grandpa’s Kid 10.00 4.3 8-1
10 11 Blu Grotto 15.00 5.4 10-1
9 10 Prince of Joy 30.00 7.4 14-1
1A 7 Truebelieve 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Movie Moxy 0 0-1
5 5 Hot Fudge 1.40 1 2-1
1 1 Sweet Willemina 4.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Cairo Sugar 6.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Movie Moxy 2.50 4.1 8-1
4 4 Mosienko 8.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Evidencias (BRZ) 8.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Handle On You 8.00 1 2-1
8 8 Speights Dance 5.00 2 4-1
2 2 Snarky 12.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Troubled Luck 10.00 2.9 5-1
4 4 Princess Vino 1.60 4.5 8-1
6 6 Zhen Lou 15.00 5.2 10-1
10 10 Five to Two 8.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Flight Control 20.00 5.6 10-1
9 9 H M S Victory 30.00 7.4 14-1
5 5 Photo Finish 4.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.