Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, December 3, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Half Again 8.00 1 2-1
1 1 Reckless Ransom 1.60 1.2 2-1
5 5 Coach Kenny 4.50 3.4 6-1
6 6 Heza Priority 6.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Saber Run 6.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Lauri’s Wish 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Boliver 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 God Guns N Guts 8.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Nervy 5.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Malibu Money 20.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Vortex 5.00 4 8-1
4 4 Mo Hawk Man 6.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Social Appeal 20.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Auto Dial 1.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Jocasta 0 0-1
7 7 Show Off 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Regal Rumor 5.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Marquette Warrior 10.00 3.6 7-1
9 9 Love to Eat 8.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 Livi Me Dreaming 6.00 5 9-1
8 8 Jocasta 12.00 6.7 13-1
2 2 Saved by Grace 20.00 6.9 13-1
6 6 Reagan’s Flame 4.50 SCRATCH
3 3 Hidden Class 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Mucho Macho Girl 4.50 1 2-1
1 1 Girl Afraid 2.50 3.4 6-1
7 7 Rockets Sister 6.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Coexist 5.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Carry On 3.50 6.2 12-1
5 5 Last of the Nile 8.00 6.8 13-1
4 4 Ours and Theirs 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Theroanrunner 8.00 1 2-1
3 3 Sri Lanka 3.50 1.4 3-1
7 7 Ms. Lilibet 12.00 2.4 5-1
5 5 Liffey 8.00 3 6-1
12 12 Happy Charger 8.00 4.9 9-1
8 8 Irish Molly 30.00 11.2 21-1
10 10 Blessing the Flag 8.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Mon Dieu 15.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Themischievousone 10.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Noble Bernadette 6.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Heckled 3.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Ruth of Judah 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Charco 4.00 1 2-1
5 5 Captivated Drama 12.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Classic Bet 4.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Knight Commander 6.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Camp Daddy 3.50 5.4 10-1
6 6 Granddaddylonglegs 20.00 6.4 12-1
9 9 Jaysker 15.00 6.8 13-1
3 3 Boss’ Dialin In 4.50 7.9 15-1
4 4 Freddy J 6.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Plane Talk 8.00 1 2-1
15 15 Uphold the Law 3.50 4.1 8-1
9 9 Into the Sunrise 5.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Field Day 3.50 5.3 10-1
7 7 Cortese 12.00 6.4 12-1
4 4 Robo 12.00 6.5 12-1
11 11 Chiseler 8.00 6.9 13-1
10 10 Swing Shift 30.00 8.8 17-1
12 12 Call Me Midnight 20.00 9.8 19-1
1 1 Midnight Escape 15.00 10 19-1
14 14 Bertie’s Galaxy 8.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Mister Mmmmm 4.50 SCRATCH
13 13 My Pal Mattie 6.00 SCRATCH
6 6 B D Valeski 10.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Dowagiac Chief 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Notable Queen 4.00 1 2-1
3 3 Not Today Geegee 4.50 1.1 2-1
4 4 First Love 3.00 1.4 3-1
8 8 Toffee 6.00 1.7 3-1
7 7 Super Christie 6.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 Petticoat 8.00 2.4 4-1
6 6 Bank On It 12.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Truly Grateful 3.50 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.