Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, December 7, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Nyxed 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Risk Free 3.00 1.1 2-1
6 6 Lightbulb Moment 4.50 2.3 4-1
5 5 Frau Diablo 6.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Allegedly 15.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Split Screen 1.80 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Poppy’s Pride 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 Ryan’s Cat 8.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Thinkaboutit 1.20 2.4 5-1
6 6 Powerfully Built 5.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 Bourbon’s Hope 15.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Prince James 6.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Commanding General 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Martingale 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Class Act 1.60 1.6 3-1
2 2 Sweet Distraction 30.00 1.7 3-1
6 6 Rye Tigress 10.00 4 8-1
1 1 Jayce and Liam 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Regulatory Risk 1.80 SCRATCH
5 5 Celestial Express 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Complete Agenda 2.00 1 2-1
6 6 Thistle 4.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 Apollo Rising 1.60 2.3 4-1
3 3 Hometown Hero 10.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Provision 10.00 4.5 8-1
4 4 Life and Light 15.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Strong Light 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Golden Rocket 4.50 1 2-1
4 4 Carbon 10.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Cinderella’s Cause 3.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Sister Linda 2.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 April Antics 2.50 3.1 6-1
7 7 Eros’s Girl 15.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 Amity Island 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Eastern Star 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Foxy Cara 3.00 2.4 4-1
5 5 Krystalheir 15.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Bussia 4.50 4.7 9-1
2 2 Steppin’ Hawk 20.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Red Jasmine 15.00 6.3 12-1
9 9 Ghostbustin 4.00 6.4 12-1
8 8 She’s a Natural 10.00 7.1 13-1
6 6 Moonlit Weekend 10.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Slack Tide 5.00 1 2-1
4 4 Timed Out 5.00 1.3 2-1
6 6 Jackie the Joker 6.00 1.9 4-1
7 7 Vegas Weekend 3.50 3.3 6-1
1 1 Our Little Tiger 10.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Hydra 4.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Its Cold in Dehere 4.50 4.5 8-1
5 5 Captivating Cara 12.00 5.2 10-1
9 9 Vallarand 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Thrill of It 0 0-1
8 8 Shadow Dragon 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Zeebear 6.00 1.2 2-1
7 7 Mason Mania 8.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Factually Correct 8.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Brew Pub 12.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Thrill of It 10.00 4 7-1
9 9 Radio Red 5.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Simply 8.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Dreampoint 20.00 5.2 10-1
10 10 Bronx Bomber 20.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Andiamo a Firenze 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Bustino Santino 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 Vaunted 8.00 1.7 3-1
4 4 Chalky Cat 12.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 First Sons 12.00 7.7 14-1
1 1 Somama Beach 50.00 7.9 15-1
10 10 Sin Nombre 15.00 8.7 16-1
7 7 Compromiser 12.00 8.8 17-1
8 8 Woodside Warrior 3.00 8.8 17-1
6 6 Alpha Sonny 30.00 10.3 19-1
11 11 War Prince 15.00 10.4 20-1
12 12 Majestic Arc 30.00 10.7 20-1
13 13 Messi the Magician 8.00 12.7 24-1
9 9 Sharpaz 6.00 13 25-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.