Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Friday, December 29, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Fluff the Pillow 1.40 1 2-1
5 5 States United 2.50 1.8 3-1
7 7 Vino Barbarino 3.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Uncle Eddie 10.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Crown That Saint 12.00 6.1 12-1
6 6 Game Misconduct 15.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 Rossington 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Alex M. Robb S.) – Alex M. Robb S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Dr Ardito 1.00 1 2-1
1 1 Aggregation 1.40 4 8-1
5 5 Curlin’s Wisdom 8.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Barese 8.00 4.5 9-1
4 4 General Banker 6.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Judge Rules 1.80 1 2-1
4 4 Solo Tonight 2.50 2.7 5-1
9 9 Goldfire 4.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Blue Marble 12.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Arco Augusta 10.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Morq 30.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Go Grad 20.00 6.5 12-1
7 7 One Witheverything 15.00 6.6 12-1
5 5 Hair On Fire 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Vodka Mardini 6.00 1 2-1
2 2 Gut Feeling 6.00 2 4-1
3 3 Mandatory 5.00 2.2 4-1
10 10 Duke of Gloucester 4.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Thank You Jon 3.00 3 6-1
1 1 The Cobbler 15.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Grandpa’s Kid 10.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Von Hoff 12.00 5.9 11-1
9 9 Centavo 20.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Bobby the Tank 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Allied Attack 4.50 1 2-1
9 10 Sorority Prank 8.00 2.4 4-1
6 7 Doc Sullivan 3.00 3.1 6-1
2 4 Shore Time 10.00 4.4 8-1
10 11 Charles J 8.00 5.2 10-1
2B 6 Fratellino 10.00 5.7 11-1
1A 12 Executive Move 12.00 6.7 13-1
4 3 Big Rich 6.00 7.9 15-1
3 1 Li’l Lang 5.00 8.2 16-1
1 2 Irie Man 12.00 8.6 16-1
8 9 Seventh Race Shake 12.00 9 17-1
7 8 Slow Down Big Andy 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Kunshan Bridge 5.00 1 2-1
8 7 My Harbors Dream 2.00 1.6 3-1
6 5 Poppy’s Pride 8.00 3 6-1
2 1 Lafitte’s Fleet 8.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Maxwell Esquire 30.00 5.6 11-1
7 6 Cajun Casanova 15.00 5.6 11-1
1A 10 Tetsu 3.00 5.6 11-1
10 11 Flint Ridge 8.00 5.9 11-1
5 4 Royal Tryst 15.00 7.9 15-1
1 8 Business Model 3.00 SCRATCH
3 2 Bourbon’s Hope 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 9 Power Seeker 4.50 1 2-1
9 10 Ducale 3.00 2.1 4-1
10 11 Stolen Base 12.00 4 7-1
1A 6 Life Changer 6.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Bold Endeavor 10.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Synthesis 10.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Bourbon Calling 5.00 5.5 10-1
6 7 Guntown 6.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 Mr Bob 10.00 6.5 12-1
7 8 Montauk Point 30.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Magnolia Midnight 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Yankee Agate 12.00 1 2-1
3 3 Harlan’s Bond 10.00 1.7 3-1
4 4 True Empress 4.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Scoring Chance 4.50 2.6 5-1
2 2 Easy Play 8.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Lady Mine 4.50 3.4 7-1
9 9 Little Linzee 6.00 3.7 7-1
13 13 Sandy’s Garden 10.00 4.7 9-1
11 11 Special Pal 30.00 4.9 9-1
12 12 Newsdley 30.00 5 9-1
10 10 Highway Harmony 15.00 7.5 14-1
7 7 Jackson Avenue 30.00 8.6 16-1
6 6 Liberty Flame 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.