Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, December 30, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Regulatory Risk 0 0-1
1 1 Regulatory Risk 1.80 1 2-1
4 4 Wynning Touch 5.00 1.3 2-1
5 5 Value Area 3.00 2.5 5-1
1A 8 Maturity Date 1.80 3.2 6-1
2 2 Backstretch Rose 3.50 3.5 7-1
3 3 Celestial Express 20.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Greatest Gift 10.00 6.7 13-1
6 6 Patricia Ann 8.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Un Ojo 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Zeebear 5.00 4 8-1
5 5 Callaloo 4.50 4.3 8-1
1 1 Colloquy 4.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Bourbon Chase 2.00 6 11-1
3 3 Lobsta 8.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Gravesend S.) – Gravesend S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Rotknee 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Durante 1.80 2.2 4-1
4 4 Bold Journey 1.60 2.8 5-1
1 1 Stage Left 8.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Greeley and Ben 4.50 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Miss Fashionista 3.00 1 2-1
9 9 Follow the Fed 8.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Purest Performance 12.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Strange Fruit 15.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Sassy Tallahassee 20.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 First Class Cat 6.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Bella Isola 15.00 7 13-1
5 5 Teresa 3.50 SCRATCH
3 3 Bomb Squad 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Chateau 4.50 1 2-1
4 4 Pogi 3.00 2.9 5-1
8 9 Mister J T 3.50 4.5 8-1
3 3 Ryan’s Cat 15.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Brazillionaire 12.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Prince James 8.00 5.9 11-1
1A 8 Bustin Shout 4.50 6.4 12-1
6 6 Flamingo Hawk 5.00 8.9 17-1
10 11 Magical Ways 10.00 9.7 18-1
9 10 Dontbelate 10.00 9.8 18-1
5 5 Rally Squirrel 30.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Leading Contender 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Overstep 1.80 1.4 3-1
3 3 Suerte 3.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 American Law 8.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Napa Valley 20.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Hold the Salsa 15.00 5 10-1
6 6 Just Call Ray 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Roman Goddess 2.50 1 2-1
8 9 Chasing Daylight 3.00 3 6-1
3 2 Irish Jackson 8.00 3.4 6-1
7 8 My Girl Jal 15.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Vax 10.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Bella Principessa 12.00 3.9 7-1
2 1 Mouly 8.00 4.7 9-1
1A 7 Duckphat 6.00 5.1 10-1
9 10 La Grotte 6.00 5.3 10-1
1 4 Red Pepper Grill 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Tra Lad 10.00 1 2-1
1 1 Fortune’s Nephew 4.50 2.4 5-1
2 2 The Institute 5.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Agility 4.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Kaz Sugar Bank 12.00 7.3 14-1
8 8 Icy Flavor 3.00 7.4 14-1
3 3 Beach Boy Al 15.00 8.6 16-1
10 10 Prince of Truth 6.00 9.3 18-1
9 9 Bourbon’s Hope 30.00 9.4 18-1
6 6 Sharpaz 15.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Three Zero 8.00 1 2-1
1 1 Newport Bridge 3.00 1.1 2-1
8 8 Blue Plate Special 10.00 4.2 8-1
9 9 Gun Maestro 8.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Collect From Ike 12.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Bargaining Power 12.00 5 9-1
11 11 Bayou Spirit 5.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Burn Jakey Burn 12.00 5.5 10-1
10 10 Doctor Jerry 20.00 6.6 12-1
7 7 Shortsinthewinter 20.00 7.3 14-1
5 5 Red D G P 3.50 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.