Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, January 21, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Street Cop Officer 4.00 1 2-1
4 4 Predicted 2.50 1.6 3-1
5 5 Cheeky Tico 2.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Midnight Worker 12.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Salute to America 4.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Norgay 4.50 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 It Takes Heart 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Pretti Xtreme 4.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Remain Anonymous 4.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 To a T 3.50 4.4 8-1
5 5 Shesalittle Edgy 6.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Hazardous Humor 3.50 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 7 Dontbelate 8.00 1 2-1
3 2 Jeff Fa Fa 4.00 1.1 2-1
4 3 Cees Get Degrees 2.50 1.2 2-1
5 6 Candy Tycoon 2.00 2.7 5-1
1A 5 Bustin Shout 5.00 3.5 7-1
1 4 Charlie Five O 5.00 4.4 8-1
2 1 Mi Tres Por Ciento (CHI) 12.00 6.9 13-1
7 8 Commerce Comet 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Rego Park S.) – Rego Park S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Antonio of Venice 1.60 1 2-1
4 4 Mischief Joke 3.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Detective Tom 5.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Big Prankster 1.80 3.2 6-1
1 1 Always a Warrior 8.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Very Debonaire 8.00 1 2-1
4 4 Screw Loose 5.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Ice Road 3.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Pine Valley 10.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Dads Good Runner 10.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Blue Plate Special 1.20 5.2 10-1
5 5 Flashy Alex 15.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Scotto 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Crown That Saint 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 My Man Woody 6.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Scoop the Pot 6.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Mighty Glory 6.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Rudy Rudy Rudy 8.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 Castlecove Spirit 20.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Raleigh St. Clair 8.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 All the Rage 4.00 7.2 14-1
3 3 Brown as a Biscuit 10.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 American Law 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Grandpa’s Kid 6.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Iron Works 20.00 3.7 7-1
9 9 Portos 3.50 4.1 8-1
6 6 Winning Connection 10.00 5 9-1
8 8 Ghostlyprince 8.00 7.5 14-1
5 5 Midnight Trouble 6.00 7.6 14-1
7 7 Bossmakinbossmoves 4.00 7.8 15-1
2 2 Union Lights 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Into Happiness 5.00 1 2-1
8 8 Portage 1.80 2.3 4-1
2 2 Malibu Moonshine 12.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Crypto Mama 4.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Bustin Bay 6.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Toned Up 6.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Spiked 8.00 6.7 13-1
4 4 Warrior’s Ransom 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Union Bulldog 12.00 1 2-1
3 3 Eliminate 3.50 1.9 4-1
8 8 Society Man 4.50 4.4 8-1
7 7 J D Factor 2.00 6 11-1
1 1 Bounteous 15.00 7.4 14-1
6 6 Cool Operator 8.00 8.1 15-1
4 4 Strategic Decision 6.00 8.6 16-1
9 9 Conflicted 30.00 9 17-1
5 5 Sardis 8.00 9 17-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.