Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, February 4, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Big Tap Baby 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Hard Kings 20.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Renati 4.50 2.5 5-1
7 7 Our Heatseeker 3.00 4 7-1
2 2 Queenie’s Leroy 4.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Last of the Past 6.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Mine Your Biz 12.00 7.1 13-1
3 3 Lord Help Me 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Chrome Racer 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Tribest (ARG) 12.00 1.6 3-1
6 6 Missile 3.50 2.6 5-1
2 2 Mystic Creed 4.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Let’s Go Brandi 8.00 5 9-1
1 1 Casby 10.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Lil Town Sis 3.50 5.7 11-1
8 8 Bella Rosso 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Exemption 10.00 1 2-1
1 1 Brie’s Mission 4.00 1.4 3-1
4 4 Storm Force 15.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 This Time Blue 20.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 Brennan’s Honor 4.50 6.3 12-1
9 9 Theplains Marshall 20.00 6.4 12-1
3 3 Sharp Spark 15.00 6.4 12-1
10 10 Dream Cruise 10.00 7.7 15-1
14 14 Drobny 3.50 8.5 16-1
6 6 Polar Bear Plunge 2.50 9.5 18-1
13 13 Howard’s Grit 10.00 9.8 18-1
7 7 Holiday Charm 8.00 9.8 19-1
11 11 Roussette 12.00 13.2 25-1
12 12 Carry the Flag 20.00 14 26-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Saved by Grace 8.00 1 2-1
3 3 Platinum Minit 2.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Clearly a Test 1.80 4.1 8-1
4 4 She Smiled At Me 12.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Front and Silver 8.00 4.5 8-1
1 1 Sacred Saint 4.50 6 11-1
7 7 Lulu’s Magic 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Numero Seis 8.00 1 2-1
6 6 Catskill Humor 6.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 The Great Maybe 6.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Dulcia 10.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Fast Lani 12.00 5.6 11-1
10 10 Port Townsend 3.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 Rockets Sister 10.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 Ocean Spirit (GB) 4.50 6.1 12-1
11 11 De’ Ans Eighty 6.00 8.3 16-1
8 8 Wild Acclaim 20.00 8.6 16-1
9 9 Firing Bullets 6.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Wicked Rose 8.00 1 2-1
5 5 Blue Cheese 12.00 1.1 2-1
4 4 Jack Hammer 2.00 1.5 3-1
2 2 Highland Creek 1.80 2.3 4-1
6 6 Budro Talking 3.50 5.4 10-1
1 1 Benoit 5.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Beautiful Mischief 4.50 1 2-1
8 8 Candy Lover 3.50 3.4 6-1
3 3 Renfrew 12.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Promdatebonnie 12.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Iseult 6.00 6 11-1
1 1 Brooklynn Drew 5.00 6.4 12-1
9 9 Sybarite 12.00 6.9 13-1
6 6 Lucy Got Game 6.00 8 15-1
10 10 Problematica 30.00 9.1 17-1
11 11 Saranac Lake 12.00 9.4 18-1
12 12 Hattie Bloom 6.00 10.3 19-1
4 4 Helen’s Little Sis 8.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Cookn Wit Catman 5.00 1 2-1
2 2 Garnet Jubilee 3.50 2 4-1
6 6 Ellie’s Boyfriend 3.50 2.4 5-1
4 4 Three Point Strut 20.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 English Bobby 20.00 4.5 9-1
3 3 Grey’s Rumor 10.00 6.9 13-1
7 7 Dromas 8.00 7.1 13-1
9 9 Nonchalant 3.00 8.8 17-1
8 8 Hangman Creek 10.00 9 17-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.