Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, February 15, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Trinity Hope 15.00 1 2-1
3 3 Hot Patootie 4.50 2.7 5-1
2 2 Flashyboy’s Lilsis 20.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Debs Prayer 5.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Star’s Dream 6.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Mrs. Necaise 6.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 I Dont Know Either 12.00 5 9-1
8 8 Mo Smoking 1.20 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Berlaine 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 Love to Eat 3.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Dancing Nancy 8.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 Scoop 6.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Guest of Honor 6.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Jocasta 4.00 6.6 13-1
5 5 Doesn’thurttoflirt 6.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Family Creed 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Shawn’s Solving 3.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Country Guy 5.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Western Star 20.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Palante 20.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Mucho Bueno 6.00 5.4 10-1
9 9 Perfect Strike 20.00 6.7 13-1
10 10 Z’s Guitar 20.00 6.7 13-1
6 6 Hawaiian Argument 8.00 7.5 14-1
8 8 Chaotic Jack 15.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Clever Joke 5.00 1 2-1
7 7 Beautifulnavigator (IRE) 3.50 1.8 3-1
4 4 Blame Nellie 8.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Miss Tappy Tone 4.50 3.4 6-1
1 1 Huntleigh 5.00 3.8 7-1
12 12 Caly Bali 15.00 4 8-1
5 5 Im Singled Up 8.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 It Wasn’t Me 8.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Cahuilla 20.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 Catherine Blaze 20.00 6.5 12-1
11 11 Prize Debate 15.00 7.4 14-1
10 10 Lassarock 50.00 11 21-1
13 13 La Villana 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Lanetta 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Auto Dial 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 Great Runner 10.00 1.1 2-1
6 6 Beautiful Life 2.50 1.3 2-1
2 2 Reason to Dream 10.00 1.9 3-1
5 5 Mackman 6.00 2.9 6-1
4 4 Cruel Endeavor 6.00 6.9 13-1
7 7 Mo Rum 3.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Rock N Roll Bolt 0 0-1
6 6 Cabernaydo 4.00 1 2-1
1 1 Rock N Roll Bolt 3.50 2.6 5-1
5 5 Pure Poetry 4.50 2.9 6-1
4 4 Night Out 4.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Kissthemoon 10.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Dream Cruise 12.00 7.1 13-1
9 9 Brilliant Berti 6.00 7.4 14-1
8 8 Might as Well 8.00 8.1 15-1
10 10 Elko County 8.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Sarpedon 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Unified Dreams 10.00 1 2-1
4 4 El Oriente (CHI) 5.00 1.1 2-1
8 8 Koufax 2.50 1.3 2-1
6 6 Runway Magic 5.00 1.7 3-1
7 7 Rightandjust 4.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 He’s Got This 10.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 French Composer 8.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Beealea 20.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Uphold the Law 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Hay Stack 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Now Yus Cant Leave 15.00 2 4-1
4 4 Sake (FR) 5.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Dulcia 12.00 2.6 5-1
12 12 Heckled 8.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Cocoa Icing 6.00 3 6-1
11 11 Spartan Queen 8.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 She’s On the Rocks 12.00 3.2 6-1
10 10 Paint Me Perfect 4.50 3.3 6-1
7 7 Miss River Rat 12.00 7.1 13-1
3 3 Lady Mercedes 20.00 9.8 19-1
1 1 Faded Memories 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Neutralize 10.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Bella Paloma 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Gray Dane 8.00 1 2-1
5 5 Catalina Day 5.00 1.2 2-1
2 2 Custom Cadillac 5.00 1.2 2-1
6 6 Lovely Sassicaia 5.00 1.4 3-1
9 9 Cajun Mischief 4.00 1.5 3-1
7 7 Puppeteer 4.50 2.3 4-1
4 4 Back Bayou 6.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Son of Reality 12.00 7.9 15-1
8 8 Country Choice 12.00 9 17-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.