Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, February 18, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Zaici 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Wicked Trick 3.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Hammerin Aamer 2.50 4.9 9-1
5 5 Millard’s Smile 10.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Nate’s Revenge 8.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Keys Included 3.50 6 11-1
6 6 Max Pandowdy 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Forty Three 4.00 1 2-1
5 5 El Deal Me Aces 3.00 1.2 2-1
1 1 Joey’s Game 12.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 F T W Slam 4.50 3.8 7-1
4 4 Hard Four 4.50 4 8-1
2 2 Hoosier 12.00 5.9 11-1
7 7 Ourperfectprince 6.00 6.9 13-1
9 9 Holiday Diamond 20.00 7 13-1
6 6 Half Magic 6.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Captivating Star 4.50 1 2-1
10 10 Sunny Sassicaia 4.00 2.7 5-1
11 11 Battalion Strike 6.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Dr Speck 6.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Monsieur Candy 5.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Social Solution 20.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Springtown 6.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Chaste One 10.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 Leisurely 20.00 6.1 11-1
4 4 Gus’s Dream World 15.00 6.9 13-1
9 9 Spirit of Dreams 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Whiskey and Easy 5.00 1 2-1
10 10 Lil Bro Coop 3.50 2.3 4-1
6 6 Vortex 6.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Charlie’s Creed 6.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Bronze Beast 10.00 5.9 11-1
7 7 Mister Muldoon 4.50 8.5 16-1
3 3 Magic Monday 8.00 9.2 17-1
11 11 Come On Come On 20.00 9.3 17-1
5 5 Point At You 20.00 9.5 18-1
9 9 Rammer Jammer 15.00 9.8 19-1
2 2 Sergeant Reckless 10.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Silent Secretary (BRZ) 8.00 1 2-1
11 11 Noble Bernadette 4.50 1.8 3-1
7 7 Playmate 4.00 2.6 5-1
13 13 Gather the Facts 20.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Urban Force 10.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Upswell 8.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 Default 10.00 4.5 8-1
4 4 Ruth of Judah 10.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Bikini Bottom 20.00 4.9 9-1
12 12 Kazillion 20.00 6.2 12-1
3 3 Capella Red 8.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Song Bridge 8.00 6.8 13-1
2 2 Purring 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Helaire 4.50 1 2-1
6 6 Half Again 4.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Drewmazing 3.50 2.8 5-1
4 4 Oak Hill Lg 6.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Pinch Me a Penny 15.00 4 8-1
1 1 Big Boo 6.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Bind Faith 12.00 7 13-1
5 5 Sono 3.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Mt. Masada 8.00 1 2-1
5 5 Big Trouble 3.50 2 4-1
2 2 Renfrew 15.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Beautiful Mischief 5.00 3.4 7-1
11 11 Alexis Rose 6.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Hub City 15.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Laughing Out Loud 10.00 5.3 10-1
12 12 Golden Degree 8.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 Zoe’s Prime 10.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Bagel and Deli 12.00 6.8 13-1
9 9 My Southern Girl 8.00 7.6 14-1
3 3 Promdatebonnie 15.00 10 19-1
13 13 Frosty Vi 6.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Need a Bit of Luck 6.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Lyrical Pardon 12.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Lemon Latte 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Win Ya Win 5.00 1 2-1
3 3 And Fifty 4.00 1.3 2-1
1 1 Zong Tough 6.00 2.4 4-1
2 2 Cherokee Takeover 4.50 5.2 10-1
6 6 Callinginthenight 8.00 6.4 12-1
10 10 Senator Con 20.00 8.5 16-1
8 8 Greeley Went West 20.00 8.6 16-1
4 4 Gallant Star 6.00 9.2 17-1
11 11 Unwanted Intruder 20.00 9.5 18-1
7 7 Shankinstine 10.00 10.4 20-1
9 9 Steal It Back 8.00 11 21-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.