Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, February 25, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Sardis 1.80 1 2-1
5 5 Reasoned Analysis 3.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Cuando 2.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 States United 8.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Armor of Catclaw 6.00 4.5 8-1
1 1 Get It to Matthew 12.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Stolen Magic 4.00 1 2-1
2 2 Iridescent 2.00 2 4-1
1 1 Ridgewood Runner 12.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Dune Road 15.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Augustine Red 8.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Guanare 1.20 SCRATCH
5 5 El Divino Nino 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Chocolate Shake 5.00 1 2-1
6 6 Mr Bob 1.60 3.4 6-1
8 8 Bad Larry 8.00 4 8-1
1 1 Hatch 10.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Hot Rod Rumble 8.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Necromancer 15.00 6 11-1
4 4 Face Abarrio 15.00 6.1 12-1
5 5 Anthracite 12.00 6.5 12-1
7 7 Bayou Spirit 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Movie Moxy 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Evidencias (BRZ) 4.50 1.7 3-1
1 3 Self Isolation 2.50 1.9 4-1
3 2 Ain’t Broke 2.00 2.4 5-1
7 7 Sweet Willemina 10.00 2.8 5-1
2 1 Malibu Moonshine 10.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Cairo Sugar 15.00 4.7 9-1
1A 8 Pharoah’s Heart 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Charlie Five O 8.00 1 2-1
7 7 Dontbelate 1.60 1.7 3-1
5 5 Winning Drive 4.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Quickflash 8.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 First Deputy 6.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Brazillionaire 6.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Anything Pazible 30.00 6.1 11-1
2 2 Mount Travers 15.00 6.3 12-1
9 9 Mr Phil 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Heavyweight Champs 3.50 1 2-1
7 7 Shore Time 10.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Sorority Prank 5.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Barron’s Bounce 6.00 4.5 8-1
6 6 Bob John Ray 3.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Mortgage Rate 10.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Slow Down Big Andy 8.00 7.5 14-1
10 10 Aelfgar 15.00 9 17-1
9 9 Landauer 15.00 9.3 18-1
3 3 Alpha Cat 12.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Trafalgar 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Lord Captain 10.00 1.1 2-1
9 9 Dr. Blute 3.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Divine Armor 8.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Curbstone 6.00 4 8-1
7 7 Alternate Reality 12.00 4.4 8-1
10 10 Champions Dream 12.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Bourbon Calling 15.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Montauk Point 30.00 6.7 13-1
8 8 Mystic Night 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Gander S.) – Gander S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Pandagate 1.60 1 2-1
1 1 The Big Torpedo 2.50 3.1 6-1
2 2 Doc Sullivan 2.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Liberty Central 6.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Brown Don’t Stop 10.00 5.3 10-1
5 5 Bali Amour 30.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Rock Star Boy 3.50 1 2-1
7 7 My Man Woody 4.50 2.8 5-1
10 10 Rossington 6.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Rudy Rudy Rudy 8.00 4.5 9-1
4 4 Uncle Eddie 8.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Crown That Saint 10.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Noble One 12.00 6.5 12-1
8 8 Brown as a Biscuit 15.00 9 17-1
11 11 Hair On Fire 10.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Maximum Emily 20.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Badge of War 6.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.