Santa Anita Horse Racing Picks for Monday, March 4, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Marinas Tina (IRE) 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Cameron Slough 1.80 3.3 6-1
1 1 One Arrow 6.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Dowhateverittakes 8.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 She’s Muy Muy 2.50 5.8 11-1
6 6 I’m Still in It 8.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Hot Rod Mama 8.00 1 2-1
5 5 Flatterwithjewels 2.00 2.4 4-1
3 3 Dream Princess 0.80 2.4 4-1
4 4 A Broken Breeze 5.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Roman Empress 8.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Captain Choochies 1.80 1 2-1
1 1 One Time Mark 2.50 3.7 7-1
3 3 Palagio 3.50 3.8 7-1
4 4 Sneaking Candy 3.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Zihuatanejo 5.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Refocus 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Prince Prancealot 1.80 2.3 4-1
5 5 Clever Clover 3.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Stay On the Fence 5.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Salsation 5.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Avoir 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Tianma 6.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Certitude (FR) 6.00 2 4-1
9 9 Ms McWhinney 3.50 2.8 5-1
8 8 Discrepancy 5.00 4 8-1
6 6 Smooth as Butter 8.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Toulouse Detrac 6.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Ang N Ash 15.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Eleven Out of Ten 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Half Nelson 6.00 1 2-1
3 3 Yvett’s Surprise 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 De Joria 2.50 1.8 3-1
2 2 Zzyzx 4.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Midnight Silence 3.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Glory of Chrome 12.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Elegant 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Invincible Molly (GB) 5.00 1.5 3-1
7 7 April Vintage 3.50 1.9 4-1
6 6 Highlands 6.00 3 6-1
3 3 Ms Brightside (IRE) 5.00 3.2 6-1
8 8 Granny Budgie (GB) 12.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Madison Rae 15.00 7.8 15-1
5 5 She Is Romantic 3.50 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Giovinazzo 2.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Cowboy Mike 2.50 2.5 5-1
1 1 Lambeau 4.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 Departure 6.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Direct Line 1.80 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Gorilla Boy 5.00 1 2-1
1 1 When Heroes Fly 4.00 1.2 2-1
6 6 Potential Spam 6.00 1.2 2-1
8 8 Gold Foot 3.50 1.7 3-1
4 4 Transcendental 4.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 Uplift 15.00 3.1 6-1
9 9 Wrong Direction 6.00 4.3 8-1
10 10 Gazon (GB) 15.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Tiger by the Tail 20.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Good At Being Bad 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.