Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, March 7, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Atkins 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Bubba Can Dance 1.60 1.3 2-1
5 5 Action Seeker 10.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Itwasthisbig 6.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Criminal Defense 20.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Chief Cheetah 12.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Treaty 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Search 6.00 1 2-1
6 6 Hard Exit 8.00 1.6 3-1
4 4 Requestforproposal 1.40 2.3 4-1
8 8 English Luna 8.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Luminous Ruler 4.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Linda Faye 10.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Shehasanattitude 15.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Moro Maestro 6.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Auto Dial 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Nonchalant 4.50 1.6 3-1
7 7 Runnin Munnin 4.00 1.9 3-1
5 5 Further Evidence 3.50 3 6-1
6 6 America Tough 8.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 No Brake Needed 8.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Gambe Forte 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Beautifulnavigator (IRE) 0 0-1
5 5 Im Singled Up 4.50 1 2-1
10 10 Clever Joke 6.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Miss Tappy Tone 4.50 5.2 10-1
3 3 Ruby Foo 6.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Beautifulnavigator (IRE) 3.50 5.5 10-1
1 1 Cahuilla 12.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 La Villana 20.00 6.9 13-1
2 2 Super Stormy 20.00 8.7 16-1
4 4 Lanetta 5.00 9.6 18-1
9 9 Late Nite Lizzie 12.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Over Paid 12.00 1 2-1
8 8 Benji Star 2.50 1.1 2-1
1 1 Ells 8.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 Sounds Like Power 4.50 1.9 4-1
4 4 Doublediamond Deal 8.00 2.9 6-1
6 6 Summertime Peppers 6.00 3.2 6-1
9 9 Tdzshininluckystar 4.50 3.5 7-1
5 5 Steel Argument 8.00 6.8 13-1
7 7 Speightful One 10.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Ghost Prince 0 0-1
1 1 One True Gentleman 4.50 1 2-1
8 8 King of the Palace 8.00 2.2 4-1
9 9 Moonlight Road 3.50 2.5 5-1
2 2 Great Runner 6.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Mo Rum 6.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Goldentown 5.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Ghost Prince 6.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Bolt Action 12.00 4.5 9-1
7 7 Good Apple 8.00 6.8 13-1
10 10 Hogslayers R I P 8.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Global Stage 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Olivia G 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 She Has It All 6.00 2.9 5-1
11 11 Sister Ella 4.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Certified Gem 6.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Tensas Lu Lu 8.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Don’tcallmepatsy 8.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 The Calling Stone 12.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Bandit’s Pride 6.00 5.6 11-1
8 8 Custom Design 15.00 7.1 13-1
9 9 My Royal Princess 20.00 7.7 15-1
10 10 Daisy de Oro 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Brigade Commander 4.50 1 2-1
2 2 The Prince’s Spur 3.50 1.2 2-1
3 3 Fromanothamutha 4.50 2.6 5-1
6 6 Silver Heist 5.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 Recker Point 6.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Maasai Warrior 12.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Wicked Rose 12.00 6 11-1
10 10 Sunday Breeze 15.00 7.9 15-1
9 9 Freddy J 6.00 8.3 16-1
7 7 Joint Venture 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Optional Claiming) – Maiden Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Funnyflame 6.00 1 2-1
5 5 Spinning Heart 8.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Sir Exton 8.00 3.1 6-1
11 11 Drobny 10.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Now Ima Believer 20.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 El Alacran 3.50 4.6 9-1
9 9 Hope Joe’s Right 5.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Roussette 10.00 5.2 10-1
10 10 Double Neat 6.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Very Satisfactory 8.00 6.4 12-1
6 6 Sharp Strike 12.00 8.1 15-1
13 13 Polar Bear Plunge 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 B Fifty Two 3.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Cowboy Cause 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Tsuris 5.00 1 2-1
4 4 Sarah’s Vision 4.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Shankinstine 8.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Midnight Crown 8.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Juju Nineteen 6.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 It’s a Bird 12.00 4.8 9-1
10 10 Inspector Ed 12.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Fort Bonz 15.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 J B Gray 20.00 5.8 11-1
11 11 Gottatakehimto 20.00 7.8 15-1
5 5 Mind On My Money 4.50 SCRATCH
12 12 Quarter Rat 10.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.