Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, March 21, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Firingtothefront 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Saint Eros Girl 1.80 2.3 4-1
2 2 She’smysmokeshow 6.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Coinmaker 8.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Belmar Beauty 12.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Wa Wa Wee Wa 3.50 5.7 11-1
4 4 Cherokee Summer 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Dulcia 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Miss Tappy Tone 4.50 1.9 4-1
7 7 Thisoneisforyou 8.00 2.9 5-1
4 4 Blenheim Baby 6.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 First Love 10.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Amanda’s Challenge 20.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Controlled Temper 3.50 6.5 12-1
9 9 Hurricane Lassie 6.00 7.6 14-1
6 6 Trouble Free 8.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Tap Iron Fist 12.00 1 2-1
4 4 Grabiq 10.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 A Miss Deameanor 5.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Sweet Alexis 4.00 3.7 7-1
9 9 Mo Diva 2.50 6.4 12-1
3 3 Dr. Boo 15.00 7.5 14-1
2 2 In B. J.’s Honor 5.00 7.8 15-1
5 5 Goldzone 5.00 8.4 16-1
8 8 Betsy’s All In 10.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
14 14 Spinning Heart 5.00 1 2-1
7 7 Celestial Joy (GB) 4.50 1.2 2-1
3 3 Max Is G Money 4.00 2.8 5-1
9 9 Cathy’s Boy 6.00 3.6 7-1
15 15 Sharp Strike 12.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Brie’s Mission 5.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Theplains Marshall 10.00 5.3 10-1
16 16 Drobny 4.00 5.4 10-1
12 12 Silent Reason 12.00 5.8 11-1
4 4 Gotta Keep Him 4.50 7.8 15-1
6 6 Storm Force 20.00 9.5 18-1
1 1 Into Aces 8.00 9.7 18-1
8 8 By the Sword 6.00 9.9 19-1
11 11 Marys Wine 15.00 13.4 25-1
10 10 Sam’s Promise 30.00 14.4 27-1
13 13 Ghost Prince 8.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Optional Claiming) – Maiden Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 B Fifty Two 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Midnight Avenger 8.00 1.1 2-1
2 2 Metronome 12.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Outworkallday 5.00 5.3 10-1
8 8 Practical Thought 4.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Summer Ready 6.00 6.7 13-1
6 6 Orizzonte 6.00 7.8 15-1
4 4 Oathbreaker 4.50 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Way to Be Marie 4.50 1 2-1
2 2 She’s On the Rocks 6.00 1.6 3-1
15 15 Bella Paloma 15.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Sweet Alyssa 4.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Candy Bar 6.00 3.8 7-1
10 10 Spartan Queen 6.00 6 11-1
7 7 Tango Zulu 10.00 6.3 12-1
12 12 Huntleigh 10.00 7.9 15-1
13 13 Im Singled Up 10.00 8.5 16-1
3 3 Urban Force 12.00 8.9 17-1
6 6 Cocoa Icing 8.00 9.6 18-1
11 11 Generous Lover 8.00 9.9 19-1
16 16 Thestral 3.50 12 23-1
14 14 Lady Jae 20.00 12.9 24-1
9 9 Now Yus Cant Leave 6.00 13.6 26-1
8 8 Lady Mercedes 15.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Clear as a Bele 5.00 1 2-1
3 3 F T W Slam 8.00 4.5 8-1
7 7 Kingofbrokenhearts 8.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Up N Gone 20.00 6.1 12-1
2 2 Jack Bob and Larry 8.00 8.4 16-1
6 6 Iron in the Fire 4.50 8.6 16-1
11 11 Sono 10.00 9.5 18-1
8 8 Doctored Deal 4.00 9.8 18-1
5 5 Adios Carlos 20.00 9.8 19-1
10 10 Myglorybee 4.50 9.9 19-1
9 9 Chad’s Flash 15.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Princess Fawzia 15.00 1 2-1
8 8 Morgs World 10.00 1.2 2-1
3 3 Sultry Lass 10.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Elle Est Forte 4.50 3.4 6-1
11 11 Stoic Luna 3.50 3.8 7-1
5 5 Our Davina 8.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Shirley’s Temple 15.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Paint Me Perfect 4.00 6.6 12-1
12 12 Lady Jeopardy 4.00 7 13-1
1 1 Swoonatra 12.00 9.1 17-1
10 10 Blissful 3.00 9.3 18-1
9 9 Storm Bay 6.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Grand Encore 6.00 1 2-1
2 2 Muncle 10.00 1.2 2-1
5 5 Measure of Faith 6.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Last of the Past 6.00 4.5 9-1
12 12 Breaking Star 10.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 One More Sleep 3.50 5.2 10-1
4 4 Renati 15.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Queenie’s Leroy 12.00 6.6 12-1
10 10 Big Tap Baby 4.50 6.7 13-1
8 8 Red Idol 6.00 9.9 19-1
7 7 Joey’s Fast Play 20.00 12 23-1
9 9 Mine Your Biz 12.00 12.1 23-1
11 11 Wild Fist 20.00 13 25-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.