Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, April 4, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Ana’s Gun 0.80 1 2-1
3 3 Addressable Market (IRE) 20.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 Dreams She Dreams 4.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 Shirl’s Delight 1.60 3.2 6-1
6 6 Hidden War Dance 30.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Celestial Express 20.00 4.8 9-1
Ana’s Gun 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 April Antics 2.00 1 2-1
2 2 Lincolnville Beach 6.00 1.5 3-1
5 5 Solib 1.60 2.6 5-1
3 3 My First Love 3.50 2.6 5-1
6 6 Starry Midnight 10.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Diva Banker 10.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Best Bet 2.00 1 2-1
5 5 Midnight Trouble 6.00 1.1 2-1
2 2 Harvard 3.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Patient Capital 3.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Narciso Dali 4.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Ski Country 10.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Freeze Pop 3.00 1 2-1
7 8 Bargaining Power 6.00 2.9 6-1
2 1 Screw Loose 4.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Run Diem Z 10.00 3.9 7-1
1A 7 Screaming Uncle 1.00 4.6 9-1
1 4 Gun Maestro 1.00 5.4 10-1
4 3 Flashy Alex 30.00 6.4 12-1
5 5 Scotto 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Dolce Veloce 1.00 1 2-1
7 7 Zhen Lou 6.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Saratoga Smokeshow 12.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Accelerina 2.50 5.5 10-1
8 8 Wicked Reya 30.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Mangia 10.00 6.6 12-1
5 5 Uncaptured Queen 15.00 6.9 13-1
2 2 Teresa 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Jolly Miss Jill 5.00 1 2-1
6 6 Vegas Weekend 4.50 2.2 4-1
2 2 Cupids Girl 6.00 2.3 4-1
8 8 Cinderella’s Cause 1.40 3.3 6-1
1 1 Holiday Jazz 15.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Joey the Fish 8.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Peachy Weachy 8.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 Triple P 30.00 6.5 12-1
9 9 Gringotts 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Disarmed 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Stolen Base 4.50 2.9 5-1
3 3 Spun and Won 4.00 3 6-1
5 5 Twisted Ride 4.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Joey Freshwater 5.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Listentoyourheart 2.50 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Price Is Truth 5.00 1 2-1
4 4 Grand Opening 12.00 3.1 6-1
7 8 Irish Tenor 2.50 3.3 6-1
3 3 Boss Tweed 12.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Romantic Charmer 6.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Toscano 5.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Freedsdale 8.00 5.6 11-1
1A 7 Break the Fall 5.00 7.6 14-1
9 10 Bosun 4.00 7.7 14-1
8 9 Boom Boom Thunder 20.00 10 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.