Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Friday, April 5, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Play Good Pay Good 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 High Fashion Kate 12.00 2.4 5-1
7 7 Corkage Fee 6.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Bette Davis 6.00 2.7 5-1
9 9 Berlaine 2.50 4.7 9-1
3 3 Noshugforpop 4.50 5.1 10-1
2 2 Lubu 15.00 6.4 12-1
6 6 Idalou 20.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Mila Junes 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 El Dandi 20.00 1 2-1
1 1 Turnbuckle 20.00 1.2 2-1
3 3 Strummin 6.00 1.5 3-1
2 2 Chado 30.00 1.7 3-1
8 8 Fortheloveofrun 30.00 2.6 5-1
12 12 Shoot It True 4.00 3 6-1
7 7 Baytown Baracus 12.00 3.3 6-1
11 11 Indigo Wind 10.00 3.8 7-1
10 10 Vinegar Hill 15.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Bostontonian 1.80 SCRATCH
13 13 Ace It 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 La Marinera 30.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Jet Sweep Joe 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Mo Stash 2.00 1 2-1
6 6 Run Curtis Run 4.00 3.7 7-1
8 8 Red Hot Rod 8.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Chiseler 12.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Awesome Aaron 20.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Counterstrike 3.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Judge Davis 6.00 5.9 11-1
7 7 Molto Vivace 20.00 6.4 12-1
9 9 B D Valeski 15.00 6.5 12-1
10 10 Bushido 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Bedazzle ‘Em 8.00 1 2-1
3 3 Sense of Pearl 15.00 1.1 2-1
7 7 Neat Trick 4.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Princess Madison 10.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Tammy’s Cruiser 20.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Kiss Me Again 6.00 3.6 7-1
9 9 Bells Beach 3.50 4.5 8-1
1 1 Roman Grace 3.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 American Saint 20.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 Cleopatra Selene 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Talonnade 15.00 1 2-1
3 3 Ms Sedona 15.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Everything Bugs Me 4.50 3.9 7-1
11 11 Swans Cove 8.00 6.6 13-1
5 5 Sy B 8.00 6.9 13-1
8 8 Morning Splendor 20.00 6.9 13-1
12 12 Priscilla’s Cove 4.00 7 13-1
1 1 Capo Donna 6.00 7.3 14-1
9 9 Lemon Latte 30.00 7.5 14-1
6 6 Sava 15.00 8.8 17-1
4 4 Rock Lucky 20.00 9.2 17-1
2 2 Spinning Class 3.50 SCRATCH
13 13 Queens Fable (IRE) 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Lafayette S.) – Lafayette S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Booth 1.80 1 2-1
3 3 Doncho 2.50 2.2 4-1
8 8 Bolt At Midnight 12.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Glengarry 8.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Who Dey 6.00 4.5 9-1
4 4 Baytown Chatterbox 50.00 5 9-1
1 1 Frosty Indulgence 20.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Scatify 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Sam’s Treasure 4.50 1 2-1
3 3 Legadema 8.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Best Kiss Yet 10.00 4 7-1
12 12 Bourbon Breeze 20.00 4 8-1
9 9 Amor Fati 2.50 4.7 9-1
6 6 Streaming Now 30.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Cozee Rags 30.00 5.4 10-1
11 11 Buttercream Babe 10.00 6.1 11-1
10 10 Roswell 3.50 SCRATCH
7 7 Just Great 20.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Vicountess 20.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Harbor Springs 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Transylvania S. Presented By Keeneland Select) – Transylvania S. Presented By Keeneland Select

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Lord Bullingdon 0 0-1
Musical Act (IRE) 0 0-1
1 1 Oscar’s World 12.00 1 2-1
2 2 Guy Named Joe 5.00 1.2 2-1
7 7 Lord Bullingdon 8.00 2.4 5-1
11 11 Full Nelson 8.00 2.9 5-1
6 6 First World War 4.00 2.9 6-1
12 12 Cugino 10.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Lagynos 20.00 3.6 7-1
10 10 Can Group 12.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Neat 10.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Musical Act (IRE) 4.50 5.1 10-1
5 5 Tennessee 15.00 7.3 14-1
9 9 Depiction 15.00 7.7 15-1
14 14 Camaro Z 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Royal Majesty (GB) 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Central Bank Ashland S.) – Central Bank Ashland S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Leslie’s Rose 0 0-1
Leslie’s Rose 0 0-1
7 7 Impel 2.00 1 2-1
6 6 Just F Y I 3.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Candied 6.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Jody’s Pride 8.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Leslie’s Rose 4.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Standoutsensation 30.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 Shimmering Allure 10.00 7.5 14-1
4 4 Halina’s Forte 8.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Hidden Presence 4.00 1 2-1
1 1 Moonlight Gambler 8.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 Guinevere 6.00 2 4-1
7 7 Mizoula (IRE) 3.50 2.2 4-1
5 5 Lucky Speech 12.00 3 6-1
9 9 Justdeny 4.50 4.5 9-1
6 6 Hand It Over 20.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Tonalite 8.00 4.8 9-1
10 10 Redo 15.00 5 9-1
12 12 Faith Understood 15.00 5 9-1
11 11 Choate 30.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Stephanieswarrior 30.00 8.4 16-1
14 14 Foreseen 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Mont Saint Michel (FR) 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.