Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, April 6, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Bourbon Society 0 0-1
3 3 El Magnifico 6.00 1 2-1
5 5 Elephants Ear 4.50 1.5 3-1
7 7 Batten Down 2.50 1.9 4-1
8 8 Banned for Life 1.60 2.5 5-1
4 4 Bourbon Society 8.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Ask Arthur 20.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Boat House 30.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Eusebius 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Guanare 0 0-1
6 6 Pirate 4.50 1 2-1
7 7 Guanare 3.50 2.8 5-1
3 3 Bledsoe 8.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Scatify 0.80 3.2 6-1
2 2 Billal 10.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Knicks Storm 12.00 4.5 8-1
1 1 Mangione 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Discreet Mischief 1.20 1 2-1
7 7 Vesture 12.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Lieutenant General 15.00 5.7 11-1
12 12 Counter Attack 6.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 This Time 30.00 7.3 14-1
10 10 Availability 30.00 7.9 15-1
5 5 Timeout 5.00 8.5 16-1
3 3 Carnitine 8.00 8.6 16-1
2 2 Bookie Brent 12.00 9.4 18-1
8 8 D’oro Unbridled 20.00 10.3 19-1
11 11 Bebedouro 15.00 11.6 22-1
9 9 Prince of Power 50.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Miles Ahead 1.20 1 2-1
7 7 Classier 12.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Bridleuptothebar 15.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Night Time 4.50 5.3 10-1
6 6 Prevalence 4.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Surveillance 3.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Midnight Escape 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Artempus 3.50 1 2-1
14 14 El Rezeen 6.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 White Palomino 6.00 3.6 7-1
11 11 Tapakena 4.50 3.9 7-1
10 10 Stop the Press 4.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Telescopic 20.00 5 9-1
7 7 Thornbury 6.00 5.1 10-1
12 12 Cabernaydo 20.00 6.2 12-1
8 8 Thousand Springs 12.00 6.4 12-1
4 4 Fort Thomas 20.00 7 13-1
1 1 Holiday Charm 30.00 7.1 13-1
5 5 Chasing Kitty 30.00 9.2 17-1
3 3 Cyber Attack 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Cloudy Holiday 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Commonwealth S.) – Commonwealth S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Here Mi Song 4.50 SCRATCH
1 1 Frat Pack 30.00 1.4 3-1
6 6 Bo Cruz 12.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Wico (IRE) 4.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Richiesonaroll 20.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Raise Cain 3.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Call Me Fast 8.00 3 6-1
9 9 Minnesota Ready 2.50 3.3 6-1
3 3 Manny Wah 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Appalachian S. Presented By Japan Racing Association) – Appalachian S. Presented By Japan Racing Association

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Austere 10.00 1 2-1
10 10 Pounce 3.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Poolside With Slim (IRE) 8.00 2.4 5-1
2 2 Living Magic 30.00 5.9 11-1
9 9 Buchu 4.00 7 13-1
11 11 Simply in Front 20.00 8.7 16-1
4 4 Grecian Goddess 10.00 8.9 17-1
7 7 Dozen Diamonds 20.00 10.2 19-1
5 5 Kairyu (IRE) 4.50 10.4 20-1
3 3 Dancing N Dixie 15.00 11.5 22-1
8 8 Mo Fox Givin 15.00 11.6 22-1
12 12 Crown Imperial 10.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Resolute Racing Madison S.) – Resolute Racing Madison S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Alva Starr 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Red Carpet Ready 3.50 2.4 4-1
3 3 Hot and Sultry 8.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Maryquitecontrary 10.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Big Pond 20.00 3.4 7-1
8 8 Vahva 2.00 5 10-1
1 1 Sterling Silver 6.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Icicles 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Shakertown S.) – Shakertown S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Beer Can Man 8.00 1 2-1
9 9 Panther Island 8.00 2.9 5-1
10 10 Our Shot 10.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Bad Beat Brian 20.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Arzak 4.00 3.9 7-1
12 12 Yes I Am Free 12.00 4.4 8-1
11 11 Coppola 6.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Sosua Summer 12.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 Front Run the Fed 20.00 6.1 11-1
7 7 Let My People Go 10.00 7.1 13-1
1 1 Eamonn 15.00 7.1 13-1
3 3 Mischief Magic (IRE) 3.50 7.1 13-1
13 13 Mark of the Z 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Toyota Blue Grass S.) – Toyota Blue Grass S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Just a Touch 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 Dornoch 3.00 2.3 4-1
10 10 Sierra Leone 2.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Good Money 20.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 Epic Ride 20.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Be You 8.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Lat Long 30.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Seize the Grey 20.00 6 11-1
1 1 Top Conor 15.00 6.7 13-1
9 9 Mugatu 30.00 8.6 16-1
11 11 Encino 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Running Bee 1.60 1 2-1
4 4 Dominican Pioneer 4.00 1.4 3-1
6 6 Accredit 6.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Master Piece (CHI) 3.50 3.7 7-1
8 8 Injunction 10.00 4 8-1
2 2 Kitodan 20.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Ocean Atlantique 8.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Camp Hope 12.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.