Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, April 7, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
The Queens M G 0 0-1
8 8 Image of Me 4.50 1 2-1
1 1 Pounds in Town 30.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Whatintheliteral 6.00 1.9 4-1
12 12 The Queens M G 20.00 2.4 4-1
11 11 West Memorial 4.00 2.4 4-1
10 10 Island Ride 15.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Baytown Cleopatra 8.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Run Camila Run 30.00 4 8-1
3 3 Lookatmybuckle 30.00 4.3 8-1
9 9 La Medusa 30.00 5.9 11-1
7 7 Street Lass 20.00 6.3 12-1
13 13 Misty Sunday 15.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Sweet Kaufy 2.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Baytown Storm 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Youmustbea Weasley 0 0-1
3 3 Supremely 4.00 1 2-1
2 2 Halloween 15.00 2 4-1
1 1 Hocus 30.00 2.1 4-1
7 7 J. P. Race 8.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Youmustbea Weasley 12.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Oncoming Train 3.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 True Jedi 4.50 4.7 9-1
8 8 Pico d’Oro 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Barksdale 15.00 1 2-1
1 1 Great Richie M 8.00 1.9 4-1
10 10 Tizzy Indy 10.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Pretty Fast 3.50 2.4 4-1
9 9 Fear and Loathing 30.00 2.5 5-1
11 11 Northern Chill 4.50 2.7 5-1
3 3 Illini 20.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Midnight Stormy 15.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Newhart 6.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Noble Gentleman 12.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Ruleroftheuniverse 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Pretty Ana 4.50 1 2-1
9 9 Landed 3.00 1.1 2-1
6 6 Befriended 8.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Sing a Little Song 20.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Yes Indeed 6.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Little Jamie 10.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Twirling Good Time 2.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Fourfiftyseven 30.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Princess Mayfair 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
14 14 Driana 20.00 1 2-1
7 7 Pammy’s Ready 20.00 2.6 5-1
9 9 American Rockette 15.00 3.6 7-1
12 12 Admissible 15.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Hurricane Debbie 4.50 5.5 10-1
11 11 Howboutdemapples 2.50 6.4 12-1
4 4 Run for the Hills 3.50 6.5 12-1
6 6 Peacock Lass 8.00 6.8 13-1
2 2 Boudoir Burlesque 20.00 7.6 14-1
3 3 Frango Electrico 30.00 7.9 15-1
1 1 Up and Down 15.00 8 15-1
5 5 Hideki 12.00 9.3 17-1
15 15 Covenant Lady 15.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Laura’s Charm 10.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Secret Statement 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Erna 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Ava Moon Pie 15.00 1 2-1
3 3 Sicilian Princess 6.00 1.1 2-1
7 7 Jessamine Hill 8.00 1.2 2-1
9 9 Encourageachother 8.00 1.2 2-1
13 13 Mystical Chant 12.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Sidamara 2.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Restless Dreamer 4.00 4 8-1
12 12 Chilled 20.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Letstalkaboutme 10.00 6.7 13-1
11 11 Yay Hooray 30.00 6.8 13-1
2 2 Claire’s Jete 12.00 9.8 19-1
8 8 Just Basking 20.00 10.8 20-1
1 1 Speed Shopper 30.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Foreseen 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Neon Icon 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Spirited 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Palisades S.) – Palisades S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 No Nay Mets (IRE) 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Mattingly 30.00 2.3 4-1
12 12 Refuel 4.50 3 6-1
10 10 Shards 20.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Fandom (GB) 12.00 3.3 6-1
11 11 Aspenite 15.00 3.4 6-1
9 9 Committee of One 8.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 My Boy Prince 3.50 4.7 9-1
2 2 Coin Miner 30.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Silent Heart 6.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 Ceepeegee 30.00 6.8 13-1
3 3 Mansa Musa (IRE) 15.00 7.6 14-1
14 14 Works for Me 4.50 SCRATCH
13 13 Sketch (IRE) 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Middleground Capital Beaumont S.) – Middleground Capital Beaumont S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Denim and Pearls 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Youalmosthadme 1.00 1.1 2-1
3 3 Tipsy Tammy 3.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Vicountess 12.00 4 8-1
2 2 Harbor Springs 6.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Chi Chi 20.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Sake (FR) 10.00 1 2-1
2 2 Tituba 4.00 1.1 2-1
4 4 Squash Blossom 20.00 2.5 5-1
8 8 Cadencia 3.00 2.7 5-1
9 9 Justifiable Belle 4.50 3.9 7-1
1 1 King’s Secret (GB) 15.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Apropos 12.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Holy Foley 6.00 5 9-1
11 11 Condone 12.00 5.4 10-1
10 10 Cant Keep Me Down 30.00 6.2 12-1
3 3 Bag Lady 10.00 8.3 16-1
12 12 Ladan 30.00 9.1 17-1
15 15 Catmint 10.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Excellent Question 4.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Hola Gata 2.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Boss Lady Bailey 3.50 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.