Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, April 11, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Malarchuk 1.60 1 2-1
5 5 Cuando 2.50 1.1 2-1
2 2 Bolt d’Plata 5.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Party With Smarty 20.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Well Schooled 6.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Sequential 3.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Prince of Pharoahs 1.80 1 2-1
6 6 Amundson 6.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Big Engine 4.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Market Alert 2.50 5.1 10-1
5 5 Bustin Shout 5.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 Bronx Bomber 8.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Bobby the Tank 4.50 1 2-1
7 7 Giant’s Fire 1.20 2.4 5-1
4 4 Xcellent Men 5.00 3 6-1
6 6 Muazarah 8.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Good Reunion 6.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Sin Nombre 10.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Solo in Paris 15.00 6.6 12-1
8 8 Dolly’s Bank 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 6 Dot’s Dollar 3.00 1 2-1
6 7 Capone 2.00 2.8 5-1
7 8 O’Trouble 8.00 3.1 6-1
8 9 Dontbelate 6.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Clem Labine 5.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Cajun Casanova 12.00 4.6 9-1
3 4 Hatch 12.00 5.3 10-1
1A 3 Mid Day Image 5.00 SCRATCH
4 5 Poppy’s Pride 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Compute It 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Within View 2.00 1.2 2-1
1 1 Neptune Beach 4.50 2.2 4-1
7 7 Uptomykneesinit 8.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Solo Rye’d 12.00 2.9 5-1
8 8 Bingood to Knowya 6.00 2.9 6-1
4 4 Ring Me 5.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Gentle Jack Frost 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Controlled Temper 4.00 1 2-1
1 1 Grab the Glory 4.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Don’t Listen 3.50 3 6-1
5 5 You’re Forever 8.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Snappin Buttons 2.50 6.3 12-1
3 3 Status Seeker 5.00 6.8 13-1
4 4 Six Pack Senorita 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Smokin’ Hot Kitty 1.60 1 2-1
3 3 Graceful Rose 3.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Anileate 8.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Miss Fashionista 3.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Bella Principessa 12.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 Miss Kristy 15.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 Embraceable Gal 6.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Savage Spirit 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Sondsliksomdiniddo 5.00 1.6 3-1
3 3 Malibu Margarita 2.50 1.9 4-1
2 2 Qorokwe 8.00 2.4 4-1
5 5 Janssen 4.50 2.5 5-1
7 7 Alpha Sonny 10.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 Triple Word Score 50.00 5 9-1
9 9 Power Ten 8.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Frankie R. 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.