Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, April 11, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Take Shape 3.50 1 2-1
3 3 Little Dixie 5.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Divinely Bolt 4.50 2.3 4-1
5 5 It Wasn’t Me 4.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Shear 30.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Jackie’s Love 10.00 4.5 8-1
6 6 Q Bond 20.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Chiquita Mosca 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Perfect Shances 1.60 1 2-1
3 3 Her Holy Name 4.50 1.9 4-1
6 6 Misty Sunday 10.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Citizen Judy 15.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Baytown Amy Rose 6.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Baytown Storm 8.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Rio de Paz 30.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Cruz Chica 30.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Image of Me 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Blue Vortex 2.00 1 2-1
10 10 Tres Chic (ARG) 3.00 2 4-1
2 2 Silent Secretary (BRZ) 8.00 2 4-1
3 3 Pittore d’Oro 30.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 Luminous Ruler 8.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 Stage Right 12.00 6.3 12-1
4 4 Maylen 20.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Fedah 6.00 6.6 12-1
5 5 Inspector Penny 10.00 7.7 15-1
9 9 Snap Judgement 30.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Jefferson Street 1.00 1 2-1
1 1 Rock N Roll Bolt 6.00 2.3 4-1
7 7 Accident 20.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Guilty Affair 30.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Tonka Trouble 20.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Cage Match 3.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Midway Lights 4.50 SCRATCH
5 5 Paved in Gold 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Write Off Jerry 4.50 1 2-1
3 3 Luke 3.50 2.5 5-1
1 1 Dual Monarchy 2.50 3.7 7-1
7 7 Striking Sparks 15.00 7.1 13-1
8 8 Haskelled 20.00 8.2 15-1
9 9 Liams Lad 30.00 8.8 17-1
10 10 Americus 8.00 8.9 17-1
6 6 Writeitontheice 20.00 9.2 17-1
2 2 Welaka 10.00 9.3 18-1
4 4 Fan the Fire 6.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Spansive 3.50 1 2-1
9 9 Stir Crazy 20.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Ro Town 12.00 2.8 5-1
10 10 Strikingly Spun 15.00 2.8 5-1
13 13 Story Hour 2.50 3.7 7-1
6 6 Woohoo Jackie Blue 15.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Quality Star 30.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Swoop to Finish 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Pleasant Passage 6.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Make the Boys Wink 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Secret Statement 30.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Embrace Me 15.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Papilio (IRE) 1.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 C F V Bullet 15.00 1 2-1
10 10 Harold’s Cloud 4.00 1.2 2-1
7 7 Sant’ Antimo 3.50 2 4-1
9 9 American Hero 6.00 3 6-1
1 1 Liam the Brave 15.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Yono 15.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Stirdatpot 20.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Cote d’Ivoire 30.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Cooke Creek 2.50 SCRATCH
8 8 My Romeo Lima 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Limited Liability 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Gunton Roe 20.00 2.9 5-1
11 11 Santorini 8.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Quadra Island 30.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 El Kabong 30.00 8.2 16-1
4 4 Uncle Jake 10.00 8.9 17-1
2 2 Bay Street Money 10.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Fort Washington 4.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Chasing the Crown 5.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Underdressed 30.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Ready to Purrform 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Giant Game 6.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Hayes Strike 4.00 SCRATCH
5 5 The Grey Wizard (IRE) 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Perfectly Wicked 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 Lanetta 6.00 1.3 2-1
2 2 Laserjet 20.00 1.6 3-1
9 9 Rock Star Doctor 15.00 1.7 3-1
8 8 Blue Guitar 12.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 Upswell 4.50 3.2 6-1
3 3 Vivid Exposure 30.00 4.9 9-1
11 11 Al Tirah 12.00 5 9-1
4 4 Missy Bee 20.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Dreaming Always 15.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Marco Sunset 3.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.