Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Friday, April 12, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Figureti (CHI) 3.50 1 2-1
7 7 Holiday House 4.00 1.2 2-1
10 10 Spycraft 8.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Rivoli 6.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Tilted Towers 2.50 3 6-1
5 5 Coyote Road 12.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 One for Richie 20.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Deb’s Gunfighter 30.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Land Mark Deal 10.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Latin Casino 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Sharp Shot 0 0-1
6 6 Sharp Shot 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 Liquor Talk 20.00 5.4 10-1
8 8 Elm Street 12.00 6.3 12-1
9 9 Quebrancho 4.50 6.4 12-1
12 12 Erasmus 8.00 6.9 13-1
2 2 Battle Born 20.00 6.9 13-1
10 10 Port Royal 10.00 7.1 13-1
14 14 Master of the Nite 20.00 7.5 14-1
7 7 High Alert 20.00 8.4 16-1
11 11 If I Were You 12.00 9.4 18-1
4 4 No Brake Needed 12.00 9.7 18-1
3 3 Shannonrun 30.00 9.9 19-1
15 15 Glamorous 20.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Modern Day Warrior 3.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Unreasonable 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Baba Voss 4.00 1 2-1
2 2 The Prince’s Spur 2.50 2.7 5-1
7 7 Tall Boy 10.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Cyclone Mischief 4.50 3.4 6-1
1 1 Pyrenees 3.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Spencer’s Boy Luna 30.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Barber Road 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Harrodsburg 1.20 1 2-1
11 11 Wicked Again 8.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Asmodeus 10.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Abadin 4.50 3.2 6-1
1 1 Dazzlemesilver 15.00 4.2 8-1
10 10 Iceatude 20.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 Aged Truth 6.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Quencio 30.00 6.5 12-1
9 9 Fliparino 30.00 8.5 16-1
4 4 Moreau 12.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Figlio Del Re (IRE) 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
14 14 Spice 20.00 1 2-1
10 10 Just Better 8.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Purloin 20.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Bella Cruella 15.00 6.8 13-1
2 2 Enzi 30.00 8.8 17-1
1 1 Belle of Rights 12.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Summerintahoe 30.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Royal Wintour 2.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Modern Sound 20.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Only Emotions 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Kerlo’s Cause 50.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Killshave Beauty 4.50 SCRATCH
13 13 Expatriate 4.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Smiling Ellie 10.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Kalispera (IRE) 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 May May Strong 3.00 1 2-1
9 9 On Command 4.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Kehoe Beach 4.50 2.3 4-1
12 12 Bellofthebluegrass 8.00 5 9-1
1 1 Pretty Layla 15.00 5.5 10-1
11 11 Marina Village 20.00 6.4 12-1
3 3 Short Skirts 10.00 8 15-1
5 5 Lotsandlotsofcandy 15.00 8.8 17-1
7 7 Elegant Vision 20.00 9.5 18-1
4 4 Songmaker 6.00 10.2 19-1
6 6 Legal Deceiver 30.00 10.9 21-1
10 10 Time for Magic 20.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Fanduel Limestone S.) – Fanduel Limestone S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Hot Beach 0 0-1
9 9 Foxxy Cleopatra 12.00 1 2-1
14 14 Hot Beach 12.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Zoe’s Prime 6.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Kodiac Wintergreen (IRE) 15.00 5.4 10-1
8 8 Big Trouble 20.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Antique Silver 15.00 6.1 12-1
7 7 Greavette 30.00 7.5 14-1
2 2 Midnight Angel 50.00 11.4 22-1
12 12 Amidst Waves 4.50 SCRATCH
13 13 Xtreme Diva 10.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Nice as Pie 4.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Toupie 5.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Crimson Advocate 6.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Pipsy (IRE) 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Tunisian Spring 1.80 1 2-1
5 5 Suncroft 3.50 2.9 5-1
1 1 Bramito 12.00 3.4 7-1
3 3 Classic Legacy 4.50 4.6 9-1
10 10 B Sudd 20.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Magic Express 6.00 6.6 12-1
6 6 Laver 20.00 6.7 13-1
9 9 Polster 12.00 6.7 13-1
7 7 No No Joe 15.00 8.1 15-1
2 2 Battleoflexington 30.00 10.3 19-1
8 8 Perfect Edge 30.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maker’s Mark Mile S.) – Maker’s Mark Mile S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Naval Power (GB) 0 0-1
2 2 Emmanuel 8.00 1 2-1
8 8 Integration 4.50 1.3 2-1
4 4 Master of The Seas (IRE) 0.80 1.5 3-1
6 6 Shirl’s Speight 15.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Naval Power (GB) 10.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Kubrick (IRE) 20.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 Du Jour 4.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Equitize (GB) 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Laughinalltheway 4.50 1 2-1
9 9 Tagliatelle 15.00 1.7 3-1
8 8 Washington’s Union 6.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Gilded Craken 8.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 My Friend Louie 20.00 4 8-1
4 4 Midnight Raid 3.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Stop the Spread 15.00 4.4 8-1
10 10 Ejtimaa 10.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Longshadow 30.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Lips Say Bliss 2.50 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.