Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, April 13, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1A 6 Hydra 1.00 1 2-1
3 3 Trade Secret 2.50 2.4 5-1
5 5 Backed by Gold 10.00 2.8 5-1
1 2 Diva Banker 1.00 3.3 6-1
6 7 Peachy Weachy 8.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Freddymo Factor 6.00 4.5 8-1
2 1 Killy Start 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Eastern Star 4.50 1 2-1
1 1 Mommasgottagun 2.00 4 8-1
4 4 Mulkey 1.40 4.2 8-1
3 3 Lake Abanakee 4.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 La Fiere 8.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Hidden War Dance 30.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Assume Nothing 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Debate 3.50 1.2 2-1
6 6 Mighty Atlas 4.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Night Effect 6.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Fighting Back 2.00 4 8-1
1 1 Capital Conquest 10.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Safalow’s Mission 1.80 1 2-1
5 5 Jackson Heights 3.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Friday I’m in Love 6.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Horse Be With You 2.50 3.8 7-1
6 6 Flip’s Dream 4.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Financial District 30.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Twelth Man 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Bayou Spirit 3.00 1.3 2-1
6 6 Devil’s Cay 4.50 1.7 3-1
7 7 Blue Plate Special 5.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Anthracite 8.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Morning Cup 4.50 SCRATCH
3 3 Bad Larry 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Mr Bob 6.00 1 2-1
2 1 Scilly Cay 8.00 1.4 3-1
1 3 Flint Ridge 6.00 1.5 3-1
6 7 Lafitte’s Fleet 4.50 2 4-1
1A 5 American Gentleman 6.00 2.1 4-1
3 2 Majestic Frontier 8.00 2.9 5-1
5 6 Gentleman Joe 3.00 SCRATCH
7 8 Dangerous Ride 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Vin Santo 8.00 1 2-1
1 1 Sorority Prank 6.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Aelfgar 3.50 1.8 3-1
3 3 Palace Boss 10.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Bob John Ray 2.50 2.6 5-1
5 5 Slow Down Big Andy 8.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Hagrid’s Flame 6.00 4.3 8-1
9 9 Metatron 8.00 5 10-1
7 7 Dillon 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Colonel Vargo 0.80 1 2-1
7 7 Mr Phil 8.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Motion to Strike 5.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Heir Port 12.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Horn of Plenty 10.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 F F Rocket 10.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 Breaking Stones 12.00 6.4 12-1
9 9 Joker Boy 30.00 8.6 16-1
3 3 Anything Pazible 15.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 He Has It All 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Judge Rules 5.00 2 4-1
3 3 Berning Beauty 6.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Inonit 12.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Unaffected 30.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Merlin’s Moment 3.00 6.1 11-1
1 1 Mugsy Fury 20.00 6.6 13-1
5 5 Iron Man Ira 12.00 7.4 14-1
8 8 Sir Magic 4.00 9 17-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.