Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, April 13, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Iguazu (IRE) 4.50 1 2-1
1 1 Gloriette 4.00 2.1 4-1
10 10 Stuck On You 10.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Missile 2.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Get By 30.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 Veecation 30.00 5 9-1
11 11 Let’s Go Brandi 6.00 5 9-1
8 8 Fancy Prance 30.00 5.7 11-1
12 12 Glamorous 20.00 8.2 15-1
9 9 Mikey’s Magic Gal 12.00 8.4 16-1
5 5 Andrea Beach 15.00 9 17-1
6 6 Bainbridge Dancer 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Rosia Bay 4.50 1 2-1
3 3 Theroanrunner 1.60 1.7 3-1
4 4 Liam’s Champ 3.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 St. Benedicts Prep 6.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Sassy Walker 10.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Eyes of Gold 20.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 Birdie Rose 8.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Malawnia 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Summonyourcourage 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 Eirik Ridge 4.00 1 2-1
6 6 Paved in Gold 15.00 1.2 2-1
3 3 Zeca Diabo 8.00 2 4-1
11 11 Unreasonable 10.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 East From West 20.00 4.5 8-1
10 10 Moving to Kentucky 20.00 8.2 16-1
9 9 Beezer 15.00 8.5 16-1
5 5 Sir Greylind 12.00 9.5 18-1
1 1 Modern Day Warrior 4.50 SCRATCH
8 8 Air It Out 15.00 SCRATCH
7 7 True Faith 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Lou’s Legacy 4.50 1 2-1
1 1 Brody 15.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Title Contender 30.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Coach Campbell 12.00 5 9-1
6 6 Teen Idol 8.00 5.6 11-1
10 10 Red State 4.00 6.7 13-1
9 9 Shadow Surge 3.50 7.3 14-1
8 8 Let’s Bounce 8.00 7.6 14-1
4 4 Fracture 15.00 7.9 15-1
7 7 Beckster 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Pin Up Betty 10.00 1 2-1
12 12 Tempting Lady 6.00 1.6 3-1
8 8 Argan 10.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Raconteuse 30.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Spaliday 2.50 6.5 12-1
11 11 Cat’s Symphony 12.00 6.7 13-1
10 10 Embark 15.00 6.8 13-1
6 6 Wine and Waves 12.00 6.9 13-1
3 3 Sweet Lilibet 30.00 7.1 13-1
9 9 Ready for Shirl 6.00 9.1 17-1
7 7 Argentinidad 20.00 9.3 18-1
5 5 Scarlet Poppy (IRE) 4.00 9.9 19-1
16 16 Beyond Lucky 10.00 SCRATCH
15 15 I’m a Cookie Lover 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 My Sexy Blonde 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Adrasteia 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Julia Shining 1.00 1 2-1
1 1 Magical Lute 6.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Musical Mischief 5.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Fireline 4.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Sultry Lass 10.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Lil Kings Princess 12.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 Joke Sisi (CHI) 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Giant’s Causeway S.) – Giant’s Causeway S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Love Reigns (IRE) 0 0-1
12 12 Love Reigns (IRE) 8.00 1 2-1
4 4 Oeuvre 8.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Bling 6.00 2.3 4-1
8 8 Roses for Debra 4.00 2.6 5-1
11 11 Elm Drive 3.50 3.2 6-1
6 6 Secret Money 15.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 B G Warrior 12.00 3.7 7-1
9 9 Kissed by Fire 10.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Play the Music 5.00 4.6 9-1
13 13 High Class 10.00 5.8 11-1
10 10 Breeze Easy (GB) 30.00 7.1 13-1
7 7 Port Townsend 20.00 9.2 17-1
3 3 Jill Jitterbug 50.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 2 Giant Game 6.00 1 2-1
2 1 Transect 3.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Frosted Departure 5.00 1.9 4-1
5 5 Hayes Strike 8.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Classic Catch 2.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Brigadier General 10.00 3.9 7-1
1A 8 Howling Time 6.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Gilcrease 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Jenny Wiley S.) – Jenny Wiley S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Beaute Cachee (FR) 0 0-1
9 9 Didia (ARG) 4.00 1 2-1
6 6 Gina Romantica 3.00 2 4-1
3 3 Elusive Princess (FR) 8.00 3 6-1
10 10 Beaute Cachee (FR) 15.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Fluffy Socks 6.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Star Fortress (IRE) 15.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Surge Capacity 5.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Walkathon 10.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 English Rose (IRE) 4.50 6.3 12-1
4 4 Embrace Me 50.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Stonestreet Lexington S.) – Stonestreet Lexington S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Encino 0 0-1
Dilger (IRE) 0 0-1
2 2 The Wine Steward 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 Encino 5.00 2.8 5-1
10 10 Lucky Jeremy 8.00 2.9 6-1
5 5 Hades 3.50 3.9 7-1
9 9 Liberal Arts 4.00 4 8-1
4 4 Footprint 10.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 How’s Ur Attitude 30.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Dilger (IRE) 12.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Secret Chat 15.00 6.5 12-1
7 7 Everdoit 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Moonlight 4.00 1 2-1
5 5 Royal Majesty (GB) 4.50 1 2-1
8 8 St. Armands Key 6.00 1.7 3-1
10 10 Beyond Stoked 6.00 3.4 6-1
11 11 Frontline Warrior 8.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Incinerator 15.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Deadpan 6.00 5.6 11-1
13 13 Break Out 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Gorilla Trek 20.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Pure Poetry 6.00 6.7 13-1
7 7 Massif 15.00 9.4 18-1
12 12 Karlwithanarl 30.00 10.4 20-1
16 16 Tifareeh 12.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Copper Missile 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Thomas Aquinas 10.00 SCRATCH
15 15 One Red Cent 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.