Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, April 14, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Windy Walk 0 0-1
7 7 E Stormy 6.00 1 2-1
6 6 La Picasita 3.00 1.1 2-1
1 1 Fasta Lavista Baby 4.00 1.6 3-1
10 10 Delighted 5.00 2 4-1
3 3 Soul Heir 15.00 3 6-1
5 5 Windy Walk 8.00 3.1 6-1
9 9 Miss Golden Penny 6.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Cause Ima Rose 20.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Trotter 15.00 8.7 16-1
8 8 Hold My Crown 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Quincy Rider 2.00 1 2-1
9 9 Trust Daddy 4.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Forge in Fire 8.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Time Muse 15.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Merlotti 20.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Cruisin and Boozin 30.00 6.9 13-1
8 8 Redhill 15.00 6.9 13-1
7 7 More Than Five 6.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Beaumont Red 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Villain 0 0-1
11 11 Radical Mischief 6.00 1 2-1
1 1 Cameo Performance 3.50 4.4 8-1
10 10 Green Light 4.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Enhanced Scat 20.00 5.3 10-1
8 8 Salb 15.00 5.3 10-1
9 9 Indy Charge 20.00 6.9 13-1
2 2 Ped d’Oro 12.00 7.4 14-1
12 12 Villain 15.00 8 15-1
3 3 Cinder Block 15.00 10 19-1
7 7 Acting Debut 12.00 11 21-1
6 6 Spin It 5.00 11.4 22-1
5 5 Garden Leave 8.00 11.8 22-1
15 15 Sardis 12.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Culprit 4.50 SCRATCH
14 14 John the Beer Man 3.00 SCRATCH
13 13 San Martin 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
American Maestra 0 0-1
3 3 Grace Given 2.00 1 2-1
2 2 American Maestra 20.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Sarissa 20.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Dice Arm 12.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 She’s a Saint 30.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Always Dream Big 20.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Kazillion 6.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Pretty Lily 30.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Anointed of God 30.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Lite It Up Louie 1.20 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Hidden Stash 4.00 1 2-1
2 2 Who Took the Money 15.00 1.8 3-1
11 11 Verbal 15.00 1.9 4-1
7 7 Utah Beach 8.00 3 6-1
5 5 Headline News 1.80 3.3 6-1
3 3 Dai Vernon 12.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Six Minus 3.50 5.3 10-1
10 10 Wow Whata Summer 20.00 5.9 11-1
6 6 Tartufo 20.00 6.7 13-1
4 4 Classic Creation 15.00 9.4 18-1
9 9 Mutakatif (IRE) 30.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Blown Cover 1.80 1 2-1
1 1 Mr. Faversham 4.50 2.6 5-1
5 5 Stingy 20.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 Montevallo 15.00 3.4 6-1
9 9 Yo Daddy 6.00 3.7 7-1
8 8 J T’s Imagination 3.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Dr Bayter 8.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Papa Yo 20.00 SCRATCH
4 4 J Bird Time 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Last Call 6.00 1 2-1
7 7 Zipadoo 8.00 2.4 5-1
8 8 Get Your Kicks 10.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Boss Lady Bailey 15.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Texas Shuffle 4.00 4.1 8-1
12 12 Notinamillionyears (IRE) 3.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Lady Emily Kathryn 20.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Implosion 30.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Catmint 20.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 High Stick 4.50 7 13-1
9 9 Lucky Ana 50.00 10.3 19-1
13 13 Right Now 30.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Big Brass Bed 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Downtownchalybrown 0 0-1
4 4 Solidify 6.00 1 2-1
3 3 Mac Daddy Too 2.00 1.1 2-1
8 8 Voodoo Zip 8.00 1.5 3-1
5 5 Pure Panic 3.00 1.8 3-1
6 6 Downtownchalybrown 4.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Lunar Module 10.00 3.6 7-1
9 9 Gunner Bay 20.00 6.8 13-1
7 7 Chambers Bay 30.00 7.3 14-1
1 1 Navy Soul 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Foreign Relations 3.50 1 2-1
8 8 Beuys (IRE) 8.00 1.6 3-1
4 4 High Tide 4.50 4.8 9-1
1 1 Ohana Honor 3.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Regal Kingdom 12.00 6.5 12-1
11 11 He’s Got Swagger 10.00 6.9 13-1
9 9 First Strike 12.00 7.6 14-1
5 5 Wind Twist 30.00 8.6 16-1
3 3 English Challenge 30.00 SCRATCH
10 10 King Curlin 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Kerouac 15.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Calycanthus 6.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.