Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, April 18, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Liam’s Journey 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Glenbrook Gerry 6.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Bricklayer 8.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 Moneyshot 1.20 1.8 3-1
3 3 Coasting By 20.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Priority Lane 4.50 3.7 7-1
4 4 Polar Bear Plunge 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Haven’t a Red Cent 6.00 1 2-1
1 1 Ultima Grace 1.20 1 2-1
7 7 Baytown Shinjuku 20.00 2.1 4-1
8 8 Kiss Cam 20.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Calcetines 30.00 4.2 8-1
11 11 Runsweetly 15.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Grace On Grace 30.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Baytown Butterfly 20.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Belmontis 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Hey Scooter 20.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Biv 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Up the Creek 8.00 1 2-1
9 9 Baby Sassicaia 12.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Candy Lover 4.50 3.6 7-1
4 4 Life Advice 3.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Beauty of the Nile 8.00 5.2 10-1
12 12 Stagflation 8.00 5.3 10-1
11 11 Grayton 20.00 5.7 11-1
10 10 Hedge These Bets 30.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Evermore 15.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Sabrina 10.00 7.5 14-1
5 5 Monarch 6.00 SCRATCH
3 3 She’s Arodeoqueen 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Pool Guy 15.00 1 2-1
3 3 Certified Loverboy 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Presider 10.00 1.3 3-1
1 1 Smile Mon 2.00 1.6 3-1
7 7 Our Dream Rye’d 4.50 1.9 4-1
4 4 Joint Venture 8.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 What’s Up Doc 20.00 5.3 10-1
9 9 Route Runner 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Kolomio 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Figgy 4.50 1 2-1
2 2 Kimber Spice 5.00 2.9 6-1
1 1 Waves of Mischief 10.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Blue Hairdo 20.00 4.4 8-1
9 9 Deep Satin 8.00 4.5 8-1
12 12 Always Wanting 6.00 4.5 9-1
3 3 Beyond Lucky 6.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 Centuria (IRE) 4.00 7.2 14-1
8 8 For Love and Honor 30.00 7.7 15-1
11 11 Don’t Look Back 12.00 7.7 15-1
5 5 Fun Loving 15.00 9 17-1
16 16 Up On the Edge 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Off the Lam 20.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Adrasteia 30.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Carnane (IRE) 6.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Pisciotta (GB) 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Unlimitedpotential 0 0-1
1 1 Unlimitedpotential 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 Reynolds Channel 2.50 2.4 4-1
7 7 Secret Crush 1.20 2.4 5-1
2 2 Crossing 8.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Sardis 8.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Axed Avenger 30.00 6.1 11-1
5 5 Tapit’s Tale 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
14 14 Shootoutthelights 4.00 1 2-1
8 8 Daring Do 10.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Marissa’s Lady 4.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 L J’s Emma 4.50 4.2 8-1
10 10 Jill Jitterbug 15.00 4.3 8-1
9 9 Your So Sillea 10.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Benedict Canyon 8.00 4.7 9-1
13 13 Miss Arlington 15.00 6 11-1
4 4 Awesome Treat 20.00 9 17-1
5 5 Current Climate 8.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Bling 3.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Rusty My Brother 30.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Time for an Angel 30.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Breeze Easy (GB) 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Panama Red (IRE) 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Kneedeepinsnow 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Unraptured 4.50 3 6-1
3 3 The Distractor 3.50 3.4 6-1
8 8 Zippin Gigi 8.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Secret Rules 6.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Fitzpatrick 15.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 Vulcan 12.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Born Flawless 6.00 6.3 12-1
5 5 Awesome Aaron 10.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Shore War 10.00 1 2-1
8 8 Vicki Rose 15.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Mambo Master 12.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Moonlit Mischief 15.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Mo Lantern 2.50 4.3 8-1
1 1 Bougie Not Basic 4.50 4.9 9-1
5 5 La Salvadorena 8.00 5.2 10-1
10 10 Niki Nine Doors 20.00 6.2 12-1
12 12 Now Hiring 30.00 8.7 16-1
7 7 Riley Jean 4.00 8.7 16-1
9 9 Gal Capone 30.00 9.9 19-1
16 16 Satin Blue 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Day Dawning 8.00 SCRATCH
11 11 From Scratch 10.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Girls Weekend 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Total Class 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.