Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Friday, April 19, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Bolt On the Rocks 6.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Greyhound Station 2.00 1.4 3-1
7 7 She’s Splendid 8.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Lynna 12.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Xtra Extraordinary 12.00 4.5 9-1
2 2 Ava’s Storm 4.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Pigeon Cay 20.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Oh Macarena 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Beer Run 2.00 1 2-1
10 10 Don Corleone 4.00 1.9 4-1
5 5 Monsieur Candy 10.00 4.9 9-1
8 8 Bolt Action 5.00 6.1 11-1
7 7 Maintain 30.00 6.7 13-1
11 11 Cowboy Cache 8.00 7 13-1
3 3 Baltimore Heart 30.00 7.2 14-1
4 4 Too Fracing Lucky 30.00 7.3 14-1
6 6 Goldentown 8.00 8.7 16-1
1 1 Royal Carol 12.00 8.9 17-1
12 12 Steel Link 30.00 9.6 18-1
2 2 King Hazelton 20.00 11.3 21-1
16 16 Side Eye 4.50 SCRATCH
14 14 Glacial Power 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Plunder 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Pearl of Aclaim (GB) 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Atlantic Strike 6.00 1 2-1
4 4 Abitibi 3.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Wupkar 1.20 2 4-1
5 5 Stand by You 8.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Fairy Cakes (GB) 30.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 La Tourista 4.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Hope Over Fear 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Run Jalen Run 1.80 1 2-1
1 1 Hold My Bourbon 10.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Size Lord 8.00 7.2 14-1
2 2 Runaway Joke 15.00 7.6 14-1
3 3 Knicks Hero 6.00 8.7 17-1
11 11 Adrift 12.00 8.8 17-1
7 7 El Peligro 20.00 9 17-1
6 6 Save the Trees 15.00 9.1 17-1
5 5 Outa Jail On Bail 20.00 9.2 17-1
10 10 Lebombo 20.00 9.5 18-1
13 13 Talbingo 4.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Toscano 6.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Orizzonte 4.50 SCRATCH
9 9 Cowboy Luke 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Casa Limon 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Dude N Colorado (GB) 4.00 1 2-1
8 8 Banishing 5.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Freedom’s Way 4.50 3.1 6-1
1 1 Escape Artist 8.00 4.2 8-1
10 10 Greek Order (GB) 3.50 5.3 10-1
2 2 February Son 12.00 7.7 14-1
7 7 Evan Harlan 15.00 7.7 15-1
5 5 Judge Davis 8.00 8.2 15-1
11 11 Leave It to Kitten 15.00 8.5 16-1
4 4 Common Bond 30.00 10.2 19-1
6 6 John Dutton 20.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Emery 0.80 1 2-1
2 2 Princesa Celina 5.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Rhapsody 8.00 2 4-1
4 4 These Apples 20.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Calle Amada 3.50 3.7 7-1
8 8 She’s Cool 20.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Yuma’s Shadow 20.00 5 9-1
5 5 Antique Silver 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Mark of the Z 12.00 1 2-1
14 14 Cherubic Factor 4.00 1.5 3-1
2 2 Winfromwithin 10.00 2.3 4-1
7 7 Axthelm 4.00 3.2 6-1
11 11 Just Might 4.50 3.4 6-1
4 4 Olympic Runner 12.00 4.2 8-1
10 10 Oceanic 6.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Gentle Soul 15.00 6 11-1
3 3 Ambivalent 15.00 8.6 16-1
13 13 Let My People Go 10.00 8.8 17-1
5 5 Nice Ace 20.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Smokin’ Jay 12.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Devil’s Tower 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Kanthari 4.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Outlaw Kid 3.50 SCRATCH
16 16 Bal a Kazoo 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Dreamlike 0.80 1 2-1
10 10 Cagliostro 3.50 3.3 6-1
7 7 Egon 12.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Havildar 6.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Brigade Commander 6.00 4.7 9-1
9 9 Single Dot Yaht 8.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Game Warden 12.00 5.3 10-1
8 8 Glen Airy 20.00 7.6 14-1
1 1 Stonemont Reunion 50.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Hurry Hurry 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Baird Doubledogdare S.) – Baird Doubledogdare S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Loved 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Raging Sea 2.50 2.4 5-1
3 3 Scylla 1.60 4 8-1
6 6 Hidden Connection 10.00 4 8-1
7 7 Curl Girl 15.00 5 9-1
5 5 Saddle Up Jessie 6.00 6.9 13-1
2 2 Queen of Missoula 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Northern Invader 1.80 1 2-1
3 3 Wonderful Justice (GB) 4.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Loyal Company 10.00 2.1 4-1
10 10 Noises Off 10.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Scoobie Quando 12.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Belouni (FR) 4.50 4.2 8-1
5 5 Dhabab (IRE) 6.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 Wicked Finn 30.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Chiron 20.00 6.8 13-1
8 8 Brumba Waffle Toes 30.00 7.9 15-1
4 4 Franz Josef 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.