Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, April 21, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 P H Factor 6.00 1 2-1
3 3 Crazy Legs Hirsch 8.00 1 2-1
6 6 Sittin On Go 1.60 1.8 3-1
4 4 Hoodlum 2.50 1.9 4-1
2 2 Q Bond 30.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Faithful King 12.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Sense You Left 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Dreamaway 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Clever Again 2.50 1.9 4-1
6 6 Baytown Beatle 20.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Mendello 30.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Sackett 30.00 4.9 9-1
12 12 Moneyline 15.00 5 9-1
11 11 Baytown Sundance 20.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Mo Hair Sam 8.00 5.1 10-1
10 10 Happyflyer 15.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Tapirs Valor 12.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Sergeant Capps 50.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Johnny Come Lately 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 The Toner 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Speak Up 4.50 1 2-1
3 3 Timeless Elegance 8.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Star Anise 15.00 4 8-1
9 9 Segesta 3.00 4.2 8-1
12 12 Glo Glo 10.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Big Dig 20.00 4.6 9-1
13 13 Ms. Lilibet 20.00 5.2 10-1
11 11 Claret Beret 6.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 Exhilarate 10.00 5.9 11-1
10 10 Pisciotta (GB) 12.00 6 11-1
6 6 Toffee Apple 30.00 6.1 12-1
5 5 Life’s Saga (IRE) 6.00 6.4 12-1
14 14 Dream On Stormy 30.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Choate 30.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Stephanieswarrior 20.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Myiyla 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Maturity Date 3.50 1 2-1
8 8 Sensible Choice 20.00 1.5 3-1
10 10 Queen Rhaenyra 6.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 Ghee for the Win 15.00 2 4-1
4 4 Colette’s Joy 4.50 2.2 4-1
1 1 No Show 12.00 2.3 4-1
9 9 Extremely Gruntled 4.00 3.2 6-1
11 11 Elliptic 8.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Song Bridge 15.00 5 9-1
2 2 Miss Harmonic 6.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Solvent 30.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Jefe de Obra (CHI) 4.50 1 2-1
12 12 Salt Spray (IRE) 4.00 4 8-1
3 3 Demolition Duke 5.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Ransomware 10.00 7.1 13-1
6 6 Double Clutch 5.00 7.2 14-1
1 1 Chaplin 8.00 7.8 15-1
10 10 Clear the Air 8.00 8.3 16-1
9 9 Mackville 20.00 8.5 16-1
5 5 Rigel 20.00 9 17-1
11 11 Grande Tortugon (CHI) 30.00 11.8 22-1
4 4 Now That Ican Rock 30.00 11.9 23-1
8 8 Sugar Gray Leonard 10.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Dragoon Guard 1.80 1 2-1
1 1 Rock N Roll Bolt 4.50 1.5 3-1
6 6 Map to the Stars 20.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Temecula 4.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Sesame Streek 15.00 3 6-1
3 3 Term 6.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Lake Superior 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Watch This Birdie 8.00 1 2-1
10 10 Canisy 8.00 1 2-1
8 8 Girl Named Charlie 12.00 1.7 3-1
7 7 Heavenly Appointed 4.50 2.2 4-1
4 4 Immensitude (FR) 1.20 2.5 5-1
3 3 Blissful 15.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Valentina Day 12.00 3 6-1
2 2 Flatter Me Silly 10.00 3.7 7-1
9 9 Tic Tic Tic Boom 30.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Queen of Missoula 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Ludwig 3.50 1 2-1
9 9 Champlin 4.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 Swot Analysis 10.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Higher Standard 6.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Powerful 8.00 3.7 7-1
12 12 Insolito 15.00 4 8-1
5 5 Saffa’s Day 4.50 4.2 8-1
10 10 Lofty Adjudicator 12.00 5 10-1
8 8 Midnight Escape 30.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Baytown Bear 30.00 7.7 14-1
4 4 Ready to Pounce 15.00 7.7 15-1
11 11 Bushido 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
14 14 Coco Crush 4.00 1 2-1
2 2 Muneera 6.00 4.5 9-1
15 15 Stay Lost 6.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Sister Honey 10.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 Semantics 20.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Lipochrome 10.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 Hampton Yard 20.00 6.6 13-1
4 4 Risk Threshold (IRE) 1.20 7.7 15-1
16 16 Why Waste Words 4.50 7.9 15-1
9 9 I’m a Cookie Lover 30.00 11.6 22-1
12 12 Tidal Tactics 30.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Mo Divine 12.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Dona Witch 15.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Day Dawning 4.50 SCRATCH
11 11 Miss Lovey Dovey 50.00 SCRATCH
13 13 My Sexy Blonde 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.