Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, April 25, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Surface to Air 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Uncle Tuffy 20.00 3 6-1
2 2 Boat House 20.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 True Faith 1.80 4.2 8-1
7 7 Can’t You See 15.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Main Line Cipher 2.50 SCRATCH
3 3 Conflicted 12.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Trap Line 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Into Diamonds 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 Cheval de Guerre 6.00 1.4 3-1
7 7 Monterey Bay 1.20 1.5 3-1
11 11 Madroc 12.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Bright Skittle 8.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Chado 20.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 The Toner 20.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 American City 30.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Ravenshire 30.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Malevaje 30.00 5.2 10-1
10 10 Baytown Baracus 30.00 5.9 11-1
16 16 Baytown Bump 12.00 6.1 11-1
9 9 Graydaria 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Blistering 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Spirit Rags 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Johnny Come Lately 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Tiwanaku 6.00 1 2-1
2 2 Kerouac 12.00 1.2 2-1
5 5 Sugoi 3.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Accidental Hero 6.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Cooke Creek 2.50 SCRATCH
3 3 Tres Soles 1.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Frosted Diamond 1.60 1 2-1
8 8 Berlaine 6.00 1.3 2-1
2 2 Little Sass 6.00 2.4 5-1
4 4 Riviere 3.50 4.1 8-1
7 7 Smart With Heart 4.50 4.6 9-1
3 3 Very Wealthy 8.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 One Stormy Lady 20.00 6.9 13-1
1 1 Xtrasaucewelldone 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Champagne Juan 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Sgt. Pepper 3.50 2.8 5-1
10 10 Truly Quality 6.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Cyber Ninja 4.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Good Medicine 20.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Better Bet 8.00 6.4 12-1
7 7 Ironsides 15.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Brees 6.00 7.9 15-1
8 8 Miracle On Ice 30.00 8.2 16-1
3 3 Marquet Malice 50.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Brown Liquor Man 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 York Tavern 8.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Newhart 10.00 4 7-1
5 5 Dr Kringle 2.50 4.9 9-1
6 6 Maximum Capacity 6.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Jr’s Gift 4.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Beaumont Red 4.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Eye Witness 6.00 1 2-1
1 1 Warrior Johny 10.00 1.6 3-1
3 3 Eyeing Clover 4.00 1.7 3-1
7 7 Bourbon Heist 3.00 2 4-1
5 5 Condemn 4.50 2.4 4-1
6 6 Angkor 1.80 SCRATCH
2 2 Blue Kentucky 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Tarneema 8.00 1 2-1
9 9 Style Points 2.00 1.4 3-1
5 5 Royal Wintour 4.00 2 4-1
1 1 Sassy Princess 12.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Hello Hollywood 3.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Raining Sugar 20.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Midsummer March 15.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Sacred Image 12.00 4.9 9-1
10 10 Janey Creed 30.00 6.2 12-1
3 3 Kamikaze Umagi 50.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Voice From Above 30.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Sputnik 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Same Old Fears 8.00 1 2-1
10 10 Plum Tricky 4.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Velvet Kisses 12.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Dial Home 15.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Day Dawning 4.50 5.4 10-1
4 4 Carolina Candy 30.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Miyako 6.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 Haniwa 12.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 Ain’t No Other 15.00 6.2 12-1
8 8 Conquest Dancer 8.00 6.3 12-1
11 11 Into Amore 3.50 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.