Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, April 27, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Spycraft 0 0-1
Spycraft 0 0-1
2 2 One for Richie 5.00 1 2-1
5 5 Spycraft 2.50 1.8 3-1
7 7 Leader of Men 2.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Dreaming of Smarty 15.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Shortlist 3.50 4.2 8-1
1 1 Epimythium 10.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Ready Pursuit 15.00 7 13-1
4 4 Keen On You 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Barnaby 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 Haskelled 5.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Oneparticulrharbor 3.50 6.1 11-1
1 1 Step On It 5.00 6.1 11-1
5 5 Star Nation 12.00 6.1 12-1
2 2 Brody’s Fly 12.00 7 13-1
4 4 Moonlight Joker 15.00 7.7 14-1
3 3 Beer With Ice 4.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Classic Performer 5.00 1 2-1
2 2 Little Blaze 3.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Thestral 4.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Evie’s Encore 3.50 5.8 11-1
6 6 Center Stage 6.00 6 11-1
1 1 Travaille 5.00 6.1 12-1
7 7 Pioneer Parade 6.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Outadore 1.40 1 2-1
3 3 Carotari 4.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Counterstrike 6.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Zoombie 15.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 Bushido 30.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Gaslight Dancer 6.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Bridleuptothebar 30.00 6.1 12-1
11 11 Retained 10.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Into the Sunrise 12.00 6.9 13-1
8 8 Kigali 10.00 8.8 17-1
13 13 Franz Josef 20.00 SCRATCH
12 12 B D Valeski 6.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Cold as Hell 20.00 SCRATCH
17 17 Lark’s Mischief 2.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Smokin’ Jay 8.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Two Eagles River 2.50 SCRATCH
15 15 Red Danger 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Crafted 4.00 1 2-1
6 6 Chryso Alogo 2.50 1.3 3-1
4 4 Bettering 15.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Notorious Sixohtwo 6.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Bledsoe 3.00 4.5 9-1
3 3 Midnight Stormy 12.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Spanish Wells 4.50 7.6 14-1
8 8 Saint Peter’s Bay 8.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Cashmeup 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Coal Boss 4.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 American Raider 6.00 1.5 3-1
8 8 Moonovermontgomery 8.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Battle Born 8.00 2.4 4-1
10 10 Falcon Quest 3.50 2.5 5-1
6 6 Faster 10.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Golden Buck 10.00 5 9-1
5 5 Secret Edge 30.00 5.2 10-1
9 9 Solidified Gold 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Hola Gata 2.00 1 2-1
2 2 Tituba 3.50 2 4-1
8 8 Hay Stack 5.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 La Pachanga 5.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Picture of a Lady 20.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Stephanie’s Charm 20.00 6.2 12-1
9 9 Killshave Beauty 8.00 6.7 13-1
10 10 Robin Sage 20.00 7.6 14-1
5 5 Dreaming of Mo 6.00 8.2 15-1
7 7 Enzi 20.00 10.7 20-1
11 11 Catmint 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Mystic Pleasure 3.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Johanny 5.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Spartan Queen 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Kalispera (IRE) 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Just Basking 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Mystical Chant 3.50 1.7 3-1
10 10 Ava’s Look 5.00 1.7 3-1
11 11 Foreseen 4.50 2.5 5-1
4 4 Heart Headed Woman 8.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Queen of the Rodeo 10.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Sava 20.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 Churning Berni 15.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Rybakina 15.00 6.4 12-1
3 3 Social Affair 20.00 6.6 12-1
6 6 Choate 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Roxelana Overnight S.) – Roxelana Overnight S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Dazzling Blue 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Zeitlos 4.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 Speedy Traveler 4.50 2.2 4-1
2 2 Last Leaf 10.00 3.3 6-1
10 10 Current Climate 8.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 Condensation 10.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Happy Am I 10.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Positano Sunset 12.00 6.6 12-1
7 7 Backyard Money 15.00 6.6 12-1
9 9 Socially Selective 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Tammy’s Cruiser 4.50 1 2-1
9 9 Rubia 5.00 1.4 3-1
10 10 Argan 6.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Starcourt 4.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Galadini 8.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Goldys Lock 12.00 4 8-1
1 1 Green Fairy 8.00 4.3 8-1
11 11 Beauty N the Bolt 15.00 4.5 9-1
8 8 Computadora 12.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Dark Fury 12.00 7.8 15-1
2 2 Corri Felice 8.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.