Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Tuesday, April 30, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Blame Day 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Dreamster 1.60 1.7 3-1
4 4 Margoinabubblebath 5.00 2.4 5-1
6 6 Rose Palace 8.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Music City Star 8.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 Frozen Solid 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Jump Into the Fire 2.00 1 2-1
6 6 Luna Moth 2.50 1.5 3-1
5 5 Amazon Queen 4.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Sunny Isle Beach 3.50 2.2 4-1
1 1 Guana Cay 8.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 My Good Fortune 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Condiment Girl 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Goshen 4.50 2.4 5-1
4 4 Lemon Bomb 10.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Sense You Left 2.50 3.7 7-1
5 5 Ghostly Night 3.50 3.9 7-1
7 7 Forever Home 15.00 4.9 9-1
8 8 Mazoku 6.00 8 15-1
3 3 Endless 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Batten Down 1.00 1 2-1
1 1 Bricklayer 5.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Daily Grind 3.50 3.9 7-1
5 5 Bettera 8.00 4 8-1
3 3 Mo Rum 8.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 Let’s Bounce 12.00 6.6 13-1
4 4 Get Ahead Now 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Battle of Normandy 1.60 1 2-1
7 7 Phileas Fogg 3.00 2.5 5-1
8 8 Gatlinburg 8.00 3 6-1
11 11 Carcano 12.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Go Bali Go 20.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Three On the Tree 15.00 6.8 13-1
5 5 Millers Rite 30.00 7.2 14-1
9 9 Stonemont Reunion 30.00 7.6 14-1
4 4 Luna Vieja 12.00 7.8 15-1
16 16 Degree of Risk 15.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Fredo 2.50 SCRATCH
15 15 Idratherbeblessed 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Berrettini 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Oscar’s World 4.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Alexis Zorba (GB) 3.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Tiverton (GB) 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Collect a Lil 1.60 1 2-1
8 8 Ella Frances 6.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Outrageously 3.50 3.8 7-1
9 9 Dreaming Always 5.00 4 8-1
1 1 Missy Bee 10.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Lubu 8.00 5 9-1
5 5 Zero Click 30.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Floris 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Scoop 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Pivosky 5.00 1 2-1
8 8 Broughty Ferry 4.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Transparency 3.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Miss Tappy Tone 3.50 3.5 7-1
5 5 Laserjet 15.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Leucadia 10.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Mo Sense 5.00 5.9 11-1
6 6 Corkage Fee 8.00 8.6 16-1
2 2 Stairstep Toheaven 8.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Clearly Unhinged 1.20 1 2-1
6 6 Filly Crystal 8.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Quick Munny 3.50 4.3 8-1
7 7 Laura’s Charm 6.00 4.7 9-1
9 9 Pistol 3.50 5.2 10-1
8 8 Admissible 6.00 6 11-1
2 2 Krispy Rice 20.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Howboutdemapples 3.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Hurry Up Hannah 15.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Queen of the Mud (IRE) 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Global Stage 1.00 1 2-1
3 3 Midnight Ambition 5.00 2.2 4-1
13 13 Readier 5.00 2.7 5-1
12 12 Mo Hope 12.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Blast Furnace 15.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Two Beers by Ten 15.00 4.7 9-1
9 9 Patriarchal 8.00 4.8 9-1
10 10 Maliblue 30.00 7.4 14-1
7 7 Grand Sam 10.00 7.6 14-1
5 5 Bozdagi 20.00 9.4 18-1
8 8 Cat On Time 15.00 9.4 18-1
2 2 Seven Taylors 20.00 9.8 19-1
11 11 Bad Boy for Life 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.