Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, May 1, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 January Jubilee 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Answer the Call 4.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 Mitole’s Legacy 5.00 2 4-1
7 7 Anajuliaforever 4.00 2.4 5-1
2 2 Singsational 3.50 2.7 5-1
6 6 Balladry 10.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Savannamarie 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Charlie Tolu 15.00 1 2-1
2 2 Indigo Wind 8.00 1.9 4-1
7 7 Complex Music 6.00 3.1 6-1
10 10 Cupid’s Thunder 20.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Johnny Come Lately 3.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Mischief Humor 15.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Predecessor 5.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Sing Sing 8.00 4.5 8-1
4 4 B Grayson 15.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Mitwajid 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Curlins Incharge 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Spuns Son 4.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Availability 3.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Master of the Nite 10.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 Quiet Rush 12.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 Zaptastic 10.00 4.5 9-1
2 2 Tiverton 6.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Puckster 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Supercool 8.00 1 2-1
7 7 Flash of Genius 5.00 1.4 3-1
1 1 Forge in Fire 3.50 1.6 3-1
5 5 Campton 3.00 1.9 4-1
8 8 Chitwood 3.50 2.9 6-1
6 6 Lazarus 20.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Perliano 4.50 3.7 7-1
3 3 Bronze Beast 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Allnight Moonlight 6.00 1 2-1
6 6 Boitano 6.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 Grey Streak 6.00 2.4 5-1
1 1 Cool Quartet 2.50 2.7 5-1
2 2 Atkins 4.00 2.9 5-1
8 8 Classic King 3.50 3.4 6-1
4 4 Ferryboat 30.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Chantry Flats 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Bedazzle ‘Em 5.00 1 2-1
9 9 Pendulum 4.00 1.4 3-1
4 4 Tonalite 6.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Bolt’s Broad 6.00 2.7 5-1
12 12 Embark 15.00 4 7-1
10 10 Saranac Lake 12.00 5 9-1
7 7 Carnane (IRE) 20.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Kiss Me Again 15.00 5.2 10-1
11 11 Leo Toro 4.50 5.2 10-1
1 1 Philanthropy 10.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Claire’s Jete 10.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Candy Craze 15.00 9 17-1
16 16 Argentinidad 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Myiyla 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Mer Soleil 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Lemon Latte 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Roswell 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Take Shape 5.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Mighty Madison 3.50 2.9 6-1
5 5 Stunningly 3.00 3.2 6-1
8 8 Mystic Pleasure 5.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Klimt’s Muse 10.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Je Suis Rapide 15.00 SCRATCH
4 4 These Apples 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Isaac Murphy Marathon Overnight S.) – Isaac Murphy Marathon Overnight S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Classic Causeway 5.00 1 2-1
7 7 Next 0.80 3.1 6-1
3 3 Red Run 4.50 3.3 6-1
4 4 O P Firecracker 15.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Donegal Forever 20.00 5 9-1
6 6 Masqueparade 6.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Dai Vernon 30.00 7.7 15-1
8 8 Master Game 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (William Walker S.) – William Walker S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Joe Shiesty 0 0-1
6 6 No Nay Mets (IRE) 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Refuel 3.50 1.1 2-1
1 1 Mansa Musa (IRE) 4.00 2.8 5-1
13 13 Sketch (IRE) 4.00 3 6-1
14 14 This Is Uscar 10.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Joe Shiesty 12.00 5.3 10-1
11 11 Silent Heart 12.00 5.9 11-1
12 12 Aspenite 20.00 6.9 13-1
5 5 Debt Paid 20.00 7.8 15-1
8 8 Bear River 20.00 7.9 15-1
2 2 Double Your Money 12.00 8.5 16-1
10 10 Runnin’ Rocket 8.00 9.6 18-1
15 15 Molly’s Town 8.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Smokey Smokey 10.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Reef Runner 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Fan the Fire 0 0-1
Fan the Fire 0 0-1
12 12 Fan the Fire 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Dual Monarchy 4.00 1.2 2-1
9 9 Gametime Gladiator 6.00 2.4 5-1
4 4 God of Wine 5.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Quarrymen 4.50 5.5 10-1
7 7 High Headed 20.00 6.1 12-1
11 11 Tizzy Indy 10.00 7.1 13-1
10 10 Summer in Aiken 6.00 7.1 13-1
6 6 Saint Rocco 30.00 8.8 17-1
2 2 Redhill 30.00 9 17-1
8 8 Writeitontheice 30.00 9.1 17-1
3 3 Not Listening 15.00 12 23-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.