Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, May 2, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Chiquita Reina 4.00 1 2-1
7 7 Maylen 12.00 3.4 7-1
6 6 Ladle 20.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Iuka Miss 3.50 4 7-1
8 8 West Coast Harbor 10.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Gather the Facts 15.00 4.7 9-1
9 9 Tapwrit Warrior 30.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Paynt Your Way 15.00 5 10-1
11 11 Digital Currency 15.00 8.3 16-1
10 10 Ms I Speight 20.00 8.5 16-1
12 12 Snap Judgement 20.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Morning Miracle 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Noble Bernadette 4.00 1 2-1
1 1 Mor Happy Hours 4.50 1.1 2-1
4 4 K’antheia 3.00 1.6 3-1
3 3 Valerie Blue 8.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 American Maestra 30.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Territoriality 6.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Fasta Lavista Baby 5.00 6.5 12-1
5 5 Lady June 15.00 6.6 12-1
10 10 Vostra 20.00 7 13-1
9 9 Pittore d’Oro 8.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Long Neck Paula 0 0-1
Long Neck Paula 0 0-1
4 4 Minty 6.00 1 2-1
12 12 Preciseness 3.00 1.6 3-1
7 7 Keyana 8.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Pounds in Town 15.00 2.3 4-1
13 13 Long Neck Paula 2.50 3.1 6-1
1 1 Miss Elle 12.00 3.2 6-1
8 8 La Fantastica 3.50 3.8 7-1
2 2 Slanderous 15.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Miss Makenna 8.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Calcetines 20.00 6.6 12-1
10 10 Emy 15.00 7 13-1
9 9 Melittlefrostgirl 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Achieve 4.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Run Camila Run 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Closethegame Sugar 4.00 1 2-1
1 1 Kavod 10.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Scotland 1.40 3.1 6-1
6 6 Angkor 2.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Major Blue 5.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Gilcrease 10.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Rocky Joy 4.00 1 2-1
3 3 Heart of Oscar 12.00 2.3 4-1
8 8 Tornado Road 12.00 4.2 8-1
11 11 Curlin Gunner 10.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Spoonie 10.00 4.5 8-1
12 12 Chasing Kitty 15.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Brilliant Berti 6.00 5.4 10-1
10 10 Tapit for the Win 8.00 7.1 13-1
6 6 Sarpedon 12.00 7.5 14-1
9 9 Thermoscope 5.00 7.6 14-1
1 1 Lucchesi 12.00 8.4 16-1
2 2 Modern Day Warrior 5.00 10.5 20-1
13 13 Demetrius 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Juan Valdez 4.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Bookie Brent 6.00 SCRATCH
15 15 First of His Name 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Castlewarden 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Cold as Hell 12.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Classic Legacy 2.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Shopper’s Revenge 4.50 2.6 5-1
4 4 Underhill’s Tab 3.50 2.8 5-1
2 2 Earl of Dassel 15.00 6.4 12-1
5 5 Mr. Keating 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Three Polks 6.00 1 2-1
2 2 Chanisa 4.50 2.1 4-1
6 6 Sassy Walker 3.50 2.6 5-1
4 4 Neutralize 6.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 In Color 4.00 4.5 8-1
8 8 Generous Lover 2.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Itsablingthing 20.00 6 11-1
7 7 Judy Elaine 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Tall Boy 0 0-1
3 3 Sir London 6.00 1 2-1
5 5 Reckoning Force 12.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Dripping Gold 4.00 3 6-1
8 8 Miranda Rights 5.00 3.1 6-1
12 12 Tall Boy 15.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 American Diamond 8.00 3.7 7-1
9 9 He’s Got Swagger 15.00 3.9 7-1
11 11 Freedom’s Way 6.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Risk Manager 4.50 4.5 8-1
7 7 Barberini 20.00 6.3 12-1
10 10 Ready to Purrform 8.00 7 13-1
6 6 Woodcock Flight (IRE) 30.00 9.6 18-1
14 14 Fair Dinkum 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 The Prince’s Spur 12.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Hidden Stash 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Wind Twist 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Kentucky Juvenile S.) – Kentucky Juvenile S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Akinmusire 0 0-1
West Memorial 0 0-1
9 9 Mensa 5.00 1 2-1
7 7 Shoot It True 1.40 1.2 2-1
5 5 Jet Sweep Joe 6.00 1.5 3-1
4 4 Strummin 8.00 1.5 3-1
6 6 West Memorial 12.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Tuxedo Park 10.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Akinmusire 8.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 Turnbuckle 30.00 7.2 14-1
3 3 The Queens M G 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (St. Matthews Overnight S.) – St. Matthews Overnight S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Bango 1.00 1 2-1
2 2 Surveillance 12.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 O Besos 4.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Necker Island 12.00 4.5 8-1
6 6 Bourbon Bash 3.50 4.6 9-1
4 4 Manny Wah 6.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Richiesonaroll 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Opening Verse S.) – Opening Verse S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Talk of the Nation 3.00 1 2-1
9 9 Carl Spackler (IRE) 2.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Ice Chocolat (BRZ) 5.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Churchtown 15.00 4.2 8-1
11 11 Stitched 20.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Smokin’ T 6.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 Accredit 20.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Skyro 20.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Harlan Estate 15.00 5.7 11-1
12 12 Tiverton (GB) 30.00 9.8 18-1
3 3 Quality G 12.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Ah Jeez 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 12 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Sant’ Antimo 15.00 1 2-1
3 3 Mucho Mojo 3.50 2 4-1
10 10 Pike Place 5.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 American Hero 12.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Long Crow 6.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Harleezy 10.00 6 11-1
2 2 My Romeo Lima 4.50 6.2 12-1
5 5 Mr. Peterkin 20.00 7.7 15-1
1 1 Seven Flat 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Power Alley 4.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.