Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, May 3, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Sally O’Malley 0 0-1
10 10 Bellofthebluegrass 5.00 1 2-1
2 2 Despo’s Dream 20.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Sundance Feature 4.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Naughty Miss 20.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Dowhateverittakes 20.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Thoughtful 2.50 4.7 9-1
9 9 Sally O’Malley 8.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Flawless Quality 10.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Rock Harbor 8.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 Penny Royal 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Pretty Ana 12.00 1 2-1
6 6 Wonder Ride 10.00 1.1 2-1
9 9 Sidamara 4.00 1.6 3-1
1 1 Weigh the Risks 4.50 1.7 3-1
7 7 Befriended 6.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Promisemeanempire 15.00 3.6 7-1
10 10 Standoutsensation 5.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Sing a Little Song 20.00 5.4 10-1
11 11 Sedona 5.00 5.7 11-1
12 12 Little Jamie 8.00 6.1 12-1
8 8 America’s Vow 30.00 6.7 13-1
2 2 Platinum Minit 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Arthur’s Ride 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Injunction 5.00 4.1 8-1
12 12 Lugan Knight 15.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Fort Warren 20.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Prove Worthy 6.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 Can’t Hush This 12.00 5.9 11-1
13 13 Background 15.00 6.1 11-1
4 4 Nabokov 20.00 6.1 11-1
11 11 Empty Tomb 8.00 6.7 13-1
10 10 Brigadier General 6.00 6.9 13-1
7 7 Cyclone Mischief 10.00 7.6 14-1
9 9 Ready to Pounce 20.00 9 17-1
1 1 Not Normal 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 School Dance 10.00 1 2-1
10 10 Stir Crazy 10.00 2 4-1
12 12 Make the Boys Wink 8.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Paint Me Perfect 20.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Bravo Kitten 6.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Sultry Lass 30.00 5.6 11-1
16 16 Batucada 10.00 5.9 11-1
13 13 Into Disco 15.00 6.8 13-1
9 9 Embrace Me 12.00 8.7 17-1
15 15 Jungle Cat 20.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Myriskyaffair 10.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Swoop to Finish 10.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Autism Community 20.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Justifiable Belle 8.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Elysian Field 3.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Freydis the Red (FR) 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Fasig-tipton La Troienne S.) – Fasig-tipton La Troienne S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Idiomatic 0 0-1
Idiomatic 0 0-1
4 4 Idiomatic 1.20 1 2-1
5 5 Pretty Mischievous 2.50 1.4 3-1
6 6 Xigera 3.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Free Like a Girl 15.00 4 8-1
7 7 Dorth Vader 12.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Taxed 15.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Frosty O Toole 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Unbridled Sidney S. Presented By Resolute Racing) – Unbridled Sidney S. Presented By Resolute Racing

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Run for the Hills 0 0-1
10 10 Tony Ann 8.00 1 2-1
2 2 Ova Charged 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Elm Drive 5.00 2 4-1
7 7 Medalla Match 15.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Stone Silent 4.50 2.8 5-1
1 1 Run for the Hills 10.00 2.9 6-1
9 9 Secret Money 8.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Miss Speedy 6.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Charriere 20.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Ag Bullet 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Alysheba S. Presented By Twinspires) – Alysheba S. Presented By Twinspires

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 First Mission 1.60 1 2-1
1 1 Money Supply 6.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Steal Sunshine 10.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Il Miracolo 10.00 3.6 7-1
10 10 Trademark 6.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Call Me Fast 20.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 T O Saint Denis (JPN) 30.00 6.9 13-1
9 9 Pipeline 15.00 7 13-1
7 7 Tapit Trice 3.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Tumbarumba 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Modesty S. Presented By Derby City Gaming & Hotel) – Modesty S. Presented By Derby City Gaming & Hotel

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Sparkle Blue 0 0-1
12 12 Queens Command (IRE) 12.00 1 2-1
4 4 Heavenly Sunday 3.00 2 4-1
5 5 Mouffy 8.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Fast as Flight 10.00 2.8 5-1
10 10 Sparkle Blue 6.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Surprisingly 5.00 2.9 6-1
9 9 Papilio (IRE) 10.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Aspen Grove (IRE) 6.00 4.8 9-1
11 11 Caroline Street 15.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Join the Dance 20.00 6 11-1
3 3 Forever After All 30.00 6.1 11-1
8 8 Be Your Best (IRE) 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Eight Belles S. Presented By Sysco) – Eight Belles S. Presented By Sysco

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Impel 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 All Things Go 12.00 1.6 3-1
7 7 Denim and Pearls 3.00 2.5 5-1
12 12 R Harper Rose 12.00 3.6 7-1
9 9 Halina’s Forte 10.00 4.6 9-1
11 11 My Mane Squeeze 6.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 Do Gooder 30.00 6.5 12-1
10 10 Tanya Showers 8.00 6.8 13-1
6 6 Asternia 15.00 7.8 15-1
3 3 Lady Moscato 15.00 9.4 18-1
5 5 Accommodate Eva 12.00 9.9 19-1
4 4 Trial 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Edgewood S. Presented By Twinspires) – Edgewood S. Presented By Twinspires

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Way to Be Marie 0 0-1
9 9 Hard to Justify 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Pink Polkadots 20.00 1.4 3-1
8 8 Kalispera (IRE) 10.00 2.6 5-1
10 10 Dynamic Pricing (IRE) 12.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Buchu 4.00 5 9-1
5 5 Mo Fox Givin 8.00 6 11-1
11 11 Way to Be Marie 15.00 6 11-1
2 2 Band of Gold 15.00 7.1 13-1
7 7 Maxisuperfly 30.00 8.6 16-1
3 3 Scalable 15.00 9.4 18-1
13 13 Dancing N Dixie 12.00 9.7 18-1
14 14 Ragtime Lady 30.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Pounce 10.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Simply in Front 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Longines Kentucky Oaks) – Longines Kentucky Oaks

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Thorpedo Anna 0 0-1
15 15 Our Pretty Woman 15.00 1 2-1
13 13 Just F Y I 4.50 1.7 3-1
5 5 Thorpedo Anna 5.00 2.5 5-1
11 11 Ways and Means 5.00 3.1 6-1
8 8 Tarifa 3.50 3.2 6-1
14 14 Leslie’s Rose 4.00 3.2 6-1
10 10 Into Champagne 30.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Gin Gin 30.00 7.4 14-1
12 12 Power Squeeze 12.00 8.5 16-1
3 3 Where’s My Ring 15.00 8.6 16-1
7 7 Fiona’s Magic 30.00 8.6 16-1
6 6 Lemon Muffin 30.00 8.8 17-1
9 9 Everland 30.00 9.7 18-1
4 4 Regulatory Risk 20.00 10.5 20-1
16 16 Candied 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Tapit Jenallie 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 12 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Almostgone Rocket 0 0-1
8 8 Twirling Good Time 4.00 1 2-1
5 5 Chasing Spring 20.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Princesa Celina 10.00 2.8 5-1
11 11 Almostgone Rocket 3.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Harbor Springs 6.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Tweetster 5.00 4.3 8-1
12 12 Saratoga Secret 20.00 5 9-1
6 6 Mink’s Palace 15.00 6.2 12-1
10 10 Hidden Class 30.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Daughter of Time 15.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Autumn Evening 12.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Tipsy Tammy 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 13 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Fancy 10.00 1 2-1
8 8 Princess Madison 2.50 1.1 2-1
15 15 Union Mist 10.00 1.6 3-1
12 12 Happy Happy 8.00 3 6-1
2 2 Chilled 3.50 3.1 6-1
11 11 Plumeria 20.00 3.7 7-1
13 13 Backstretch Rose 12.00 4.5 8-1
7 7 Sustancia 10.00 6.2 12-1
3 3 Nocturne Court 10.00 7.5 14-1
9 9 Tiz Sweet Emotion 30.00 9.1 17-1
5 5 Hedge These Bets 30.00 13.2 25-1
14 14 Dynamism 12.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Bourbon Thief 10.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Speed Shopper 20.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Pretty Layla 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.