Belmont At The Big A Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, May 4, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Positive Carry (IRE) 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Spaliday 1.60 3.4 6-1
5 5 Past Tense 6.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Just the Sky 3.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 The Taco Lady 10.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 Gasparilla 12.00 6.5 12-1
4 4 Coquito 30.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Experimental 8.00 1 2-1
1 1 Patricia Ann 3.50 2.1 4-1
3 3 Camera 1.40 3.5 7-1
2 2 Play Good Pay Good 6.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Autumn Evening 1.60 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 7 Lord Captain 6.00 1 2-1
3 2 Magnolia Midnight 3.00 1.6 3-1
2 1 Market Alert 8.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Gentleman Joe 5.00 4 7-1
4 4 Grandpa’s Kid 8.00 6.2 12-1
1A 6 Centavo 8.00 6.7 13-1
7 8 Bold Endeavor 1.60 SCRATCH
1 3 Alternate Reality 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Debate 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Lucency 2.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Mighty Atlas 1.80 2.9 5-1
6 6 Tepeu 12.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Memphis 8.00 4 8-1
5 5 Nineteen Oysters 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Into It 4.00 1 2-1
4 4 Miracle Mike 3.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Shadizaar 6.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 What a Blast 10.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Addicted to You 12.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Disappearance 20.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 My Friend Louie 10.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Lord Flintshire 4.00 6.7 13-1
9 9 Victors Valiant 5.00 6.7 13-1
10 10 Harvard 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Hero’s Medal 8.00 1 2-1
5 5 Cascais 1.80 1.2 2-1
3 3 Drake’s Passage 1.40 1.3 2-1
2 2 Mr. Ripple 5.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Moore’s Law 8.00 2.9 5-1
7 7 Complete Agenda 15.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Aztec 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Poppy’s Pride 0 0-1
4 4 Beach Boy Al 3.50 1 2-1
3 3 Hot Rod Rumble 5.00 1.7 3-1
8 9 Kenny Had a Notion 15.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Bustin Shout 6.00 3.1 6-1
9 10 Heir Port 10.00 4.6 9-1
6 7 Poppy’s Pride 12.00 5 10-1
7 8 Predicted 20.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Clem Labine 2.50 SCRATCH
1A 6 Good Juju 2.50 SCRATCH
2 2 Red D G P 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Fort Marcy S.) – Fort Marcy S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Ottoman Fleet (GB) 1.20 1 2-1
6 6 Pioneering Spirit 10.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Limited Liability 12.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Master Piece (CHI) 8.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Olympic Dreams 20.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Atone 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Siege of Boston 4.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Exact Estimate 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Elusive Quality S.) – Elusive Quality S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 American Monarch 4.00 1 2-1
5 5 Dancing Buck 3.50 1.6 3-1
8 8 Durante 20.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Our Shot 3.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Nothing Better 4.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Alogon 6.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 Bring Me a Check 15.00 8.1 15-1
9 9 Thin White Duke 10.00 8.7 17-1
1 1 Yes and Yes 15.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Ruffian S.) – Ruffian S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Randomized 0.60 1 2-1
2 2 Green Up 2.50 2.8 5-1
3 3 Fingal’s Cave 15.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Ain’t Broke 10.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Shidabhuti 8.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Soul of an Angel 15.00 5 9-1
7 7 Traverse 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Miss Lao 8.00 1 2-1
3 3 Alette d’Oro 5.00 1.4 3-1
7 7 Laurana 3.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Luna Patina 10.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Boxed Wine 4.00 6.1 12-1
1 1 Pamplona Red 10.00 6.4 12-1
4 4 Shehanah 12.00 7.1 13-1
8 8 Saving Memories 20.00 7.9 15-1
10 10 Lu’s Redemption 8.00 8.2 16-1
6 6 Dubawi Wowie 12.00 8.8 17-1
9 9 Addagirl Addie 50.00 8.8 17-1
11 11 Savannah Dancer 30.00 14.4 27-1
15 15 Splashy 6.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Alittlebitnaughty 3.50 SCRATCH
16 16 Lil’ Hayadoin 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 La Fiere 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.