Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, May 4, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Top Gun Rocket 5.00 1 2-1
1 1 Evan On Earth 3.00 1.6 3-1
5 5 Lou’s Legacy 6.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Manfredi 30.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Title Contender 20.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Pure Force 2.50 5.5 10-1
7 7 Culprit 3.50 5.8 11-1
6 6 House United 5.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Scylla 0 0-1
6 6 Scylla 1.20 1 2-1
11 11 Victorious 10.00 1.6 3-1
8 8 Coppa Girl 4.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Joke Sisi (CHI) 10.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Zawish 12.00 4.3 8-1
10 10 Secret Statement 10.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Gunesh 15.00 4.4 8-1
9 9 Baby Gundin 30.00 5.9 11-1
7 7 Friendlypersuasion 15.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Navy Goat 20.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Steel Racer 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Anthem King 0 0-1
2 2 Cornishman 5.00 1 2-1
11 11 Mindframe 2.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 Elephants Ear 8.00 1.6 3-1
4 4 Anthem King 20.00 3.5 7-1
10 10 Mena 20.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Invigorated 4.50 4.4 8-1
8 8 Higgins Boat 20.00 6.1 11-1
1 1 Cartucho 4.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 Gorilla Trek 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Bee Dancer 12.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Nullify 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Knicks Go Overnight S. Presented By L&n Federal Credit Union) – Knicks Go Overnight S. Presented By L&n Federal Credit Union

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Denington 0 0-1
6 6 Best Actor 2.50 1 2-1
11 11 Oscar Eclipse 8.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Strong Quality 4.00 2.8 5-1
9 9 U. S. Army 12.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Kupuna 6.00 3.9 7-1
10 10 Five Star General 8.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Not Normal 30.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Denington 6.00 6.4 12-1
3 3 Collaborate 20.00 6.6 13-1
8 8 Strava 8.00 7 13-1
4 4 Pats Property 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Twin Spires Turf Sprint S. Presented By Sentient Jet) – Twin Spires Turf Sprint S. Presented By Sentient Jet

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Motorious (GB) 3.50 1 2-1
10 10 Big Invasion 5.00 1.5 3-1
5 5 Mo Stash 20.00 1.9 4-1
12 12 Arrest Me Red 10.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Candy Man Rocket 30.00 4.4 8-1
9 9 Bad Beat Brian 20.00 4.4 8-1
14 14 Cogburn 8.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Coppola 10.00 4.7 9-1
11 11 Mister Mmmmm 20.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Filo Di Arianna (BRZ) 12.00 6.3 12-1
15 15 Axthelm 30.00 7.4 14-1
13 13 Eamonn 12.00 8.3 16-1
8 8 Mischief Magic (IRE) 4.00 9.2 17-1
2 2 Front Run the Fed 30.00 9.6 18-1
7 7 Our Shot 10.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Panther Island 20.00 SCRATCH
17 17 Sketch (IRE) 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Derby City Distaff S. Presented By Kendall-jackson Winery) – Derby City Distaff S. Presented By Kendall-jackson Winery

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Alva Starr 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Olivia Darling 10.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Flying Connection 10.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Spirit Wind 8.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Sterling Silver 15.00 3.5 7-1
9 9 Red Carpet Ready 4.50 3.7 7-1
10 10 Vahva 3.00 5 9-1
1 1 Three Witches 8.00 5 9-1
6 6 American Band 30.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 Chi Town Lady 15.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S.) – Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Mission of Joy 0 0-1
11 11 Coppice (GB) 5.00 1 2-1
6 6 Delahaye 8.00 2.1 4-1
12 12 Mission of Joy 10.00 2.9 6-1
1 1 Ag Bullet 5.00 2.9 6-1
9 9 Not So Close 20.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Evvie Jets 6.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Cairo Consort 8.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Chili Flag (FR) 4.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Walkathon 10.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Ascendancy 30.00 7.7 15-1
10 10 Infinite Diamond 20.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Heavenly Sunday 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Pat Day Mile S. Presented By Sap) – Pat Day Mile S. Presented By Sap

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Seize the Grey 0 0-1
2 2 Beeline 10.00 1 2-1
11 11 Vlahos 8.00 1.6 3-1
12 12 Nash 3.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Otto the Conqueror 12.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Carbone 10.00 3.1 6-1
8 8 Top Conor 2.50 4.3 8-1
7 7 Who Dey 10.00 7.1 13-1
3 3 Northern Flame 20.00 8.3 16-1
9 9 Frosty Indulgence 30.00 8.9 17-1
6 6 Guanare 30.00 10.7 20-1
5 5 Seize the Grey 8.00 10.8 20-1
10 10 Gettysburg Address 30.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (American Turf S. Presented By Twinspires) – American Turf S. Presented By Twinspires

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Set 10.00 1 2-1
3 3 Lagynos 15.00 3.1 6-1
11 11 Cugino 10.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Legend of Time (GB) 3.50 3.4 6-1
14 14 Agate Road 5.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Formidable Man 15.00 4.5 8-1
12 12 Abrumar 10.00 5 9-1
7 7 Stay Hot 10.00 5.1 10-1
15 15 Blue Eyed George 15.00 5.9 11-1
9 9 Noted 15.00 6.4 12-1
6 6 Neat 6.00 6.7 13-1
8 8 Lord Bullingdon 15.00 6.9 13-1
2 2 Trikari 15.00 7.1 13-1
13 13 Can Group 15.00 8.8 17-1
1 1 Twirling Point 15.00 SCRATCH
17 17 Dancing Groom 20.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Rock’n a Halo 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Churchill Downs S. Presented By Ford) – Churchill Downs S. Presented By Ford

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Zozos 3.00 1 2-1
10 10 Gun Pilot 10.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Mr. Wireless 6.00 3.3 6-1
11 11 Hoist the Gold 3.50 3.4 6-1
7 7 Track Mate 12.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Tejano Twist 4.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Minnesota Ready 15.00 5 9-1
5 5 Here Mi Song 20.00 5.6 10-1
1 1 Raise Cain 20.00 6.8 13-1
9 9 Three Technique 10.00 7.6 14-1
3 3 Bo Cruz 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic S.) – Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Program Trading (GB) 0 0-1
5 5 Program Trading (GB) 4.50 1 2-1
8 8 Never Surprised 10.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Cellist 12.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Far Bridge 8.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Integration 5.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 I’m Very Busy 4.00 3 6-1
7 7 Webslinger 10.00 5.6 11-1
10 10 Siege of Boston 15.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Anglophile 20.00 6.4 12-1
11 11 Naval Power (GB) 3.50 8.1 15-1
9 9 Never Explain 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 12 (Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve) – Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Catalytic 0 0-1
11 11 Forever Young (JPN) 10.00 1 2-1
8 8 Just a Touch 10.00 1.5 3-1
12 12 Track Phantom 20.00 2.3 4-1
10 10 T O Password (JPN) 30.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Mystik Dan 20.00 4.2 8-1
17 17 Fierceness 2.50 4.5 9-1
21 21 Epic Ride 30.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Dornoch 20.00 5.3 10-1
18 18 Stronghold 20.00 5.8 11-1
14 14 Endlessly 30.00 6.2 12-1
5 5 Catalytic 30.00 8 15-1
2 2 Sierra Leone 3.00 8 15-1
4 4 Catching Freedom 8.00 8.4 16-1
6 6 Just Steel 20.00 8.6 16-1
19 19 Resilience 20.00 9.1 17-1
16 16 Grand Mo the First 50.00 9.3 18-1
13 13 West Saratoga 50.00 9.4 18-1
15 15 Domestic Product 30.00 9.7 18-1
7 7 Honor Marie 20.00 11.2 21-1
20 20 Society Man 50.00 17.1 32-1
9 9 Encino 20.00 SCRATCH
22 22 Mugatu 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 13 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Jefferson Street 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 Discreet Mischief 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Raging Torrent 15.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 How’s Ur Attitude 30.00 2.5 5-1
14 14 Yellow Card 15.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Baytown Chatterbox 50.00 6.6 13-1
12 12 Magic Grant 30.00 6.9 13-1
16 16 Purple Octopus 30.00 7.4 14-1
6 6 Devilsgotacause 15.00 7.7 14-1
13 13 Pirate 12.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Epic Battle 30.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Caper’s Hooley 30.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Agoo 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Sir Greylind 30.00 SCRATCH
9 9 General Partner 2.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Perfect Prankster 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 14 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Gun Party 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 Dive Bomber 1.80 1.6 3-1
6 6 Banned for Life 5.00 2.7 5-1
10 10 Military Cruiser 15.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Coach Campbell 30.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Friar Newton 15.00 5.7 11-1
11 11 Fracture 12.00 6.5 12-1
12 12 Timeout 6.00 6.6 13-1
2 2 Charnico 20.00 7.1 13-1
8 8 D’oro Unbridled 10.00 7.3 14-1
9 9 Six Kings 20.00 7.3 14-1
5 5 Code Word 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.