Oaklawn Park Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, May 4, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Communication Memo 2.00 1 2-1
6 6 Luv to Win 3.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Starburst 20.00 1.8 3-1
8 8 Good Heart 4.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Holding Pattern 12.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Full Authority 8.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Verb 30.00 3.7 7-1
9 9 Lord Grantham 30.00 6 11-1
10 10 Drifter 15.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Raymond 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Remarkable Mo 6.00 1 2-1
2 2 Bold d’Oro 12.00 1.1 2-1
3 3 Pineland 2.00 1.2 2-1
6 6 Hailstorm 4.50 1.8 3-1
4 4 Catalina Crush 12.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Mischievous M 12.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 High Ransom 30.00 5 9-1
8 8 Gimmeethreesteps 8.00 5.2 10-1
10 10 Safe Bet 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Gucci Boy 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Hess 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Point Blank 6.00 4.1 8-1
10 10 Gluckstadt 1.40 4.9 9-1
2 2 Deluca 15.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Fight’n Ready 12.00 6 11-1
12 12 Holus Bolus 20.00 7.1 13-1
6 6 Corked 12.00 7.2 14-1
9 9 Hard to Come By 20.00 7.2 14-1
3 3 Redfield 20.00 7.5 14-1
13 13 Contrabandista 15.00 8.1 15-1
11 11 Mahoney Road 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Ain’t That a Kick 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Quincy Market 15.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Cravensworth 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Saturday Starter 12.00 1 2-1
2 2 You’re On Mute 20.00 1.1 2-1
1 1 Parisian Promise 3.00 1.1 2-1
6 6 Tell ‘Em I’m Comin 12.00 1.1 2-1
9 9 Snow King 6.00 1.8 3-1
10 10 Gotta Have Dreams 10.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Diomedes 15.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Mo Mesa 30.00 2.8 5-1
11 11 Victory Dash 30.00 3.1 6-1
8 8 Kennel Club 15.00 3.5 7-1
12 12 Aztec Fire 1.40 3.8 7-1
7 7 Malinalco 20.00 5.7 11-1
13 13 Phenomenal Dream 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 5 Windcracker 5.00 1 2-1
5 4 Nip N Tuck 8.00 1 2-1
3 2 Kowboykabin 8.00 1.3 2-1
6 6 Namesake 6.00 1.4 3-1
4 3 Threefiftyseven 12.00 1.9 4-1
8 8 Greatheart 3.50 2.5 5-1
10 10 Jewelstown 4.00 2.6 5-1
2 1 Colosi 15.00 2.9 5-1
11 11 Devil Vision 15.00 3.6 7-1
9 9 Bizzy Legs 15.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Risk Profile 20.00 4 8-1
12 12 Chaos Reigns 12.00 6.5 12-1
1A 13 Z Z’s Prince 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Cadillac Cowboy 20.00 1 2-1
2 2 Palmetto Devil 10.00 2 4-1
9 9 Interrupter 12.00 SCRATCH
4 4 String Theory 1.80 2.6 5-1
13 13 My Brother Mike 15.00 3 6-1
3 3 Preparedness 15.00 3.7 7-1
11 11 Speaking Loud 6.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Statler 20.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Honest Opinion 2.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Xkuz 30.00 4.2 8-1
10 10 Storm Cat Eyes 15.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 No Mo Whining 15.00 9.1 17-1
14 14 Gimme Love 30.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Flyherbflyhigh 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Hard to Fathom 20.00 1 2-1
11 11 Shacks Way 3.50 1.2 2-1
5 5 Megatap 20.00 1.4 3-1
8 8 Hern 3.00 1.8 3-1
7 7 Life Is Hard 4.00 2.5 5-1
13 13 Home Run Trick 4.50 2.5 5-1
3 3 T Bones Trick 10.00 3.1 6-1
12 12 Martini Blu 8.00 4 8-1
2 2 Nikolaou 20.00 4.2 8-1
9 9 Out Run’m 30.00 4.5 8-1
1 1 Curly Jack 5.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Mr. Thunderstruck 20.00 5.3 10-1
10 10 Roman Centurian 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Boogie Bode 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
14 14 Breslau 10.00 1 2-1
3 3 Juilliard 3.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Rithm Nic 5.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Cathedral Beach 4.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 A La Carte 20.00 5.6 11-1
8 8 Boat Song 20.00 6.6 12-1
12 12 Chiringo 3.50 7.1 13-1
2 2 Gunflash 15.00 7.1 13-1
11 11 Late Nite Radio 12.00 7.4 14-1
7 7 Manta Rey 20.00 7.4 14-1
13 13 Classify 5.00 7.5 14-1
6 6 Absolute Chaos 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Bettys Cash 30.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Plausible Denile 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Rose Parade 5.00 1 2-1
6 6 Flashy Lass 1.60 2.1 4-1
8 8 Enchanted Nile 8.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Sister Ella 30.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Makemebelieve 8.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Seven Natty Patty 15.00 5.2 10-1
9 9 Paris Style (FR) 3.00 5.3 10-1
11 11 West Side Girl 15.00 7.2 14-1
10 10 C. C. Harbor 30.00 7.5 14-1
1 1 What’s to Do 30.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Toffee 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Lake Hamilton S.) – Lake Hamilton S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Skelly 0 0-1
6 6 Skelly 0.80 1 2-1
5 5 Edge to Edge 4.50 2.8 5-1
2 2 Mish 20.00 4 8-1
3 3 Ruggs 30.00 4.5 9-1
4 4 Mahomey 30.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Payne 10.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Perfect Dude 30.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Straight No Chaser 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Arkansas Breeders’ Championship S.) – Arkansas Breeders’ Championship S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Willow Creek Road 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Lochmoor 1.60 4.3 8-1
1 1 Navy Seal 8.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 Afleet Sky 30.00 6 11-1
10 10 Black Apple 12.00 6.9 13-1
7 7 One Ten Stadium 8.00 7.3 14-1
9 9 Dinner At Crumpies 20.00 7.4 14-1
8 8 Cybertown 12.00 7.5 14-1
11 11 Man in the Can 10.00 8.2 15-1
4 4 Al’s Romeo 20.00 8.3 16-1
5 5 Ready Shoes 30.00 8.6 16-1
12 12 Chez Whiz 30.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 12 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Dalton’s Rutrow 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Mr. Benny 20.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Moneystrike 8.00 3.1 6-1
12 12 Young Jonesboro 6.00 3.1 6-1
8 8 Beraberabera 1.60 3.8 7-1
10 10 Bet All the Gold 12.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Secret Honor 30.00 5 9-1
2 2 Miracle Mack 12.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Welcometoarkansas 20.00 6.1 11-1
11 11 It’s a Rainy Day 30.00 6.7 13-1
9 9 Changing Times 20.00 7.5 14-1
5 5 Tarps Storm 30.00 7.8 15-1
13 13 Great Barrier 2.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Mandatory Mission 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.